Research Article
Geospatial Modeling of Urban Sprawl in Bharatpur Metropolitan City
Sadhuram Lamichhane*
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
96-109
Received:
3 September 2025
Accepted:
13 January 2026
Published:
28 April 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.urp.20261102.11
Downloads:
Views:
Abstract: Rapid socioeconomic developments have spurred urban sprawl in Nepal. Bharatpur Metropolitan City (BMC) in recent decades, resulting in notable changes to the land use and environment. Using Landsat images and GIS-based methods, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban sprawl from 1990 to 2020 and projects future growth through 2040. Built-up areas expanded by over 20 times, from 3.29 km2 in 1990 to 64.32 km2 in 2020, according to the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) categorization. At the same time, there was a significant amount of land conversion as agricultural land decreased from 221.88 km2 to 193.90 km2 and barren land decreased by more than 60%. Three predominant types of urban sprawl were found: leapfrog (important within 0–30 km buffers), infill (8.94 km2), and extension (103.48 km2). The most common areas for extension-type sprawl were those between 0 and 5 km. Built-up area is expected to rise by 132% from 2020 levels to 113.25 km2 by 2030 and 149.33 km2 by 2040, according to spatiotemporal analysis and CA-Markov modelling. By 2040, this growth is expected to further reduce the amount of agricultural land to 118.78 km2. These results underline how urgently urban planning interventions are needed to manage haphazard development, protect arable land, and direct sustainable growth. The study shows how important it is to combine predictive modelling, spatial analysis, and remote sensing to inform land use regulations in areas that are rapidly becoming more urbanized.
Abstract: Rapid socioeconomic developments have spurred urban sprawl in Nepal. Bharatpur Metropolitan City (BMC) in recent decades, resulting in notable changes to the land use and environment. Using Landsat images and GIS-based methods, this study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban sprawl from 1990 to 2020 and projects future growth through...
Show More
Case Report
Rethinking Urban Policy: From Global Standards to Local Solutions - Tailoring Urban Growth: Lessons from Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt's National Urban Policies
Bassem Fahmy*
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 2, June 2026
Pages:
110-121
Received:
1 December 2025
Accepted:
9 December 2025
Published:
30 April 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.urp.20261102.12
Downloads:
Views:
Abstract: This paper offers a critical appraisal of the UN-Habitat National Urban Policy (NUP) framework through a comparative case study of Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt, grounding its arguments in a close reading of policy documents and institutional reviews, as well as a contextual analysis of on-the-ground challenges and opportunities. Motivated by rapid urbanization, mounting informality, environmental stress, and region-specific pressures, such as political instability in Lebanon, refugee inflows in Lebanon and Jordan, acute water scarcity in Jordan, and massive metropolitan growth in Egypt, the study interrogates whether a globally framed NUP can adequately respond to highly differentiated national and sub-national realities. Using a tripartite comparative method, the paper traces each country's NUP development and implementation trajectory (Lebanon's protracted process since 2005/2010, Jordan's 2018–2022 formulation, and Egypt's 2017–2020 program), highlights recurrent weaknesses such as top-down design, limited engagement with demographic dynamics, poor data and monitoring systems, unclear local fiscal space, fragmented governance, and the sidelining of informal settlements, and identifies context-specific pressures that expose the framework's limitations, including frequent cabinet turnover and fiscal crisis in Lebanon; refugee-driven service burdens and water stress in Jordan; and scale, informality and institutional fragmentation in Egypt. The evidence indicates that while the NUP offers useful organizing principles for inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urbanization, its one-size-fits-all approach risks reinforcing existing inequalities and implementation gaps unless it is adapted to local realities. The paper concludes by arguing for a recalibrated approach: making NUPs more context-sensitive, integrating demographic and fiscal diagnostics, strengthening local capacities and meaningful community participation, and adopting spatially coherent territorial planning to translate global goals into locally effective and equitable urban outcomes.
Abstract: This paper offers a critical appraisal of the UN-Habitat National Urban Policy (NUP) framework through a comparative case study of Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt, grounding its arguments in a close reading of policy documents and institutional reviews, as well as a contextual analysis of on-the-ground challenges and opportunities. Motivated by rapid ur...
Show More
