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The European Export Support as a Strategic Challenge and a Precondition for the EU Economic Growth
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
65-71
Received:
23 October 2014
Accepted:
31 October 2014
Published:
17 November 2014
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.11
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Abstract: The European Union lost its priority status within the global economy, both in terms of exports growth rate and also its share in the global exports. And it just happened in a situation when the growth of economic involvement of individual countries or groups of countries is not only considered as an important indicator, but also a factor of economic growth. At the same time the global risk rate of human society development is increasing. Recently the EU went through some institutional changes, as the economic and financial crisis fades away, including the establishment of the new European Commission as well as the effort towards the change of its economic policy. However the Multiannual Financial Framework, the EU budget, was compiled back in 2012, i.e. in the period with only few minor signs of economic recovery. The structure of this EU budget for the period 2014-2020 is therefore tailored to the structure applied in the past budgeting periods. Therefore the budget neither is nor it can become a framework for the offensive EU economic policy. One of the reasons is that it counts with spending money for dealing with past rather than the future issues. The European Commission is well aware of the strategic importance of international trade and its support for future EU competitiveness and therefore it creates - on a long-term basis - preconditions for opening new markets. The problem is utilization of such newly created space in a situation where the vast majority of the "new" markets suffer from unusual economic and political risks. The state support for exports, implemented through state budgets, may often lead to unwillingness of business entities to get involved in risky projects in these unknown and unfamiliar territories, thus waiving the opportunities given by EU. One of the potential solutions for this limitation could be the introduction of an institutional base at the EU level, to provide a complex assistance and support for exports from member countries, especially those less developed, particularly in the financial sector and also in the sector of economic information.
Abstract: The European Union lost its priority status within the global economy, both in terms of exports growth rate and also its share in the global exports. And it just happened in a situation when the growth of economic involvement of individual countries or groups of countries is not only considered as an important indicator, but also a factor of econom...
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An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Bangladesh
Md. Niaz Murshed Chowdhury,
Mohammed Jashim Uddin,
Dr. Mohammad Saiful Islam
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
72-82
Received:
5 November 2014
Accepted:
12 November 2014
Published:
17 November 2014
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.12
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Abstract: This study undertakes an econometric analysis of the determinants of foreign exchange reserves. Yearly time series data have been used to figure out that type of relevant variables that are very much momentous for the determinants of foreign exchange reserves. This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in Bangladesh using Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) unit root test to examine the stationarity, Engle Granger residual based co-integration approach to show the co-integrating relationship among variables, and diagnostic tests for better modeling. The empirical results confirm that there exists a strong relationship among foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate, remittance, home interest rate, broad money 〖(M〗_2), UPI of export and import, and per capita GDP. The coefficients are found to change smoothly, as a function of seven threshold variables- out of nine candidates where six variables are statistically significant. Drawing inferences from these findings, it can be suggested that exchange rate, a strong remittance related policies, quality items of exports, and sustainable GDP can keep a substantial and feasible roles to make up a healthy amount of foreign exchange reserves for the host country like Bangladesh.
Abstract: This study undertakes an econometric analysis of the determinants of foreign exchange reserves. Yearly time series data have been used to figure out that type of relevant variables that are very much momentous for the determinants of foreign exchange reserves. This paper attempts to identify the key determinants of foreign exchange reserves in Bang...
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Determinants of Inflation in Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation
Samim Uddin,
Md. Niaz Murshed Chowdhury,
Dr. Mohammad Abul Hossain
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
83-94
Received:
4 November 2014
Accepted:
15 November 2014
Published:
20 November 2014
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.13
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Abstract: Both the increase and the decrease of inflation rate (General Price level) are like a two side sharpened razor in an economy like Bangladesh. They both are harmful for an economy. Therefore, it has been attempted here to know about some experimented determinants of inflation. Moreover, in this respect a well-known econometric technique, namely, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Model has been applied. By employing data series for 1972 to 2012, it has been indicated that the gross domestic product (GDPt), money supply (M2t), and interest rate (IRt) of current year of Bangladesh as well as previous year’s real exchange rate (RERt-1) and interest rate (IRt-1) have contributed to increase inflation in Bangladesh. It has also been noticed that current year’s real exchange rate (RERt) in Dollar and previous year’s money supply (M2t) have contributed to decrease the inflation rate. In our study, we emphasized on the significance of variables and availability of data because of which some important determinants like unemployment rate (Ut), remittance (REMt) and oil price (PPt) have been ignored in main model.
Abstract: Both the increase and the decrease of inflation rate (General Price level) are like a two side sharpened razor in an economy like Bangladesh. They both are harmful for an economy. Therefore, it has been attempted here to know about some experimented determinants of inflation. Moreover, in this respect a well-known econometric technique, namely, Aut...
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks and Economic Growth in Kenya: VAR Econometric Approach
Mutuku Cyrus,
koech Elias
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
95-108
Received:
31 October 2014
Accepted:
19 November 2014
Published:
25 November 2014
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.14
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Abstract: In macroeconomic policy design and management, monetary and fiscal policies are of great essence. However, the relative effectiveness of these policies has been subject to debate in both theoretical and practical realms for a long period of time. This paper investigated the relative potency of the policies in altering real output in Kenya using a recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. The analysis of variance decomposition and impulse response functions reveled that fiscal policy has a significant positive impact on real output growth in Kenya while monetary policy shocks are completely insignificant with fiscal policy shock significantly alters the real output for a period of almost eight quarters.
Abstract: In macroeconomic policy design and management, monetary and fiscal policies are of great essence. However, the relative effectiveness of these policies has been subject to debate in both theoretical and practical realms for a long period of time. This paper investigated the relative potency of the policies in altering real output in Kenya using a r...
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National Stock Exchanges (NSE) and National Economic Development: A Vector Autoregressive Modelling Approach with Data from Thirty (30) Sub-Saharan Countries (2000-2013)
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
109-118
Received:
29 October 2014
Accepted:
15 November 2014
Published:
27 November 2014
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.15
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Abstract: Using both Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Pooled Least Squares Regression (PLSR) analysis, this paper demonstrated the contributions of a formidable National Stock Exchange (NSE) to national economic development, especially in war-affected and disaster-stricken economies in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data for thirty (30) SSA economies (1981-2012), comprising of selected macroeconomic variables viz: “Gross Domestic Product (LY_GDP), Economy-wide Stock Capitalization (LY_CAPITA) and Economy-Wide Stock Monetization (LY_MONET)” was used to resolve the question “Does a formidable NSE enhance national economic development ?. Whilst the VAR was used to demonstrated co-movement within the short and long-run dependence, the PLSR technique evaluated structural dynamics amongst the variables; Economy-Wide Stock Capitalization (LY_CAPITA), Economy-wide Stock Monetization (LY_MONET) and Economic Growth (LY_GDP). The changes in GDP was proxied national economic development, whilst, the changes in Economy-Wide Stock Capitalization (LY_CAPITA) and Economy-Wide Stock Monetization (LY_MONET) surrogated NSE activities. Both the VAR and PLSR affirmed a positive relationship between economic growth (LY_GDP) and the variables Nation-wide Market Capitalization (LY_CAPITA) and Economy-Wide Stock Monetization (LY_MONET). We therefore imply that, Nation-Wide Market Capitalization (LY_CAPITA) and Economy-Wide Monetization (LY_MONET) contributes to national economic development. Hence, we recommend that the “State” as the frontier pusher in any economy to initiate policies that would identify and promote investors’ base, strengthened regulations, and monitors NSEs development within these economies.
Abstract: Using both Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Pooled Least Squares Regression (PLSR) analysis, this paper demonstrated the contributions of a formidable National Stock Exchange (NSE) to national economic development, especially in war-affected and disaster-stricken economies in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data for thirty (30) SSA economies ...
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Commercialization of Smallholder Farmers and Its Welfare Outcomes: Evidence from Durgapur Upazila of Rajshahi District, Bangladesh
Md. Ataul Gani Osmani,
Md. Khairul Islam,
Bikash Chandra Ghosh,
Md. Elias Hossain
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2014
Pages:
119-126
Received:
21 December 2014
Accepted:
27 December 2014
Published:
6 January 2015
DOI:
10.11648/j.jwer.20140306.16
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Abstract: Agriculture is the mainstay of Bangladesh economy. It plays important role to the growth and development of the economy of the country. Most of the farmers of Bangladesh are marginal and small farmers. They consume most part of their produced commodities. The market participation rate of them with surplus production is very low. Therefore, the main objective of the present study is to estimate the level of commercialization of smallholder farmers. The study also examines the welfare outcomes of commercialization of these farmers. This study is mainly based on primary data that are collected from Durgapur Upazila of Rajshahi District of Bangladesh. The required data have been collected from 100 smallholder farmers in the study area. A multi-stage random sampling technique is applied to select the sample farmers. The present study uses household commercialization index to estimate the level of commercialization of smallholder farmers. It also applies one-way ANOVA analysis to examine the welfare outcomes among smallholder farmers working at different levels of commercialization. Firstly, calculation of Household Commercialization Index implies that the average percentage level of commercialization of smallholder farmers in the study area is 57%, which indicates the moderate level of commercialization. And findings from one-way ANOVA analysis indicate that farm households with high degree of commercialization enjoy better welfare outcomes such as consumption of more food and goods, and services. The commercialization of smallholder farmers contributes more to the gross domestic product and economic development of Bangladesh. Therefore, the government and non-government organizations should provide financial support such as input subsidy, credit facilities, training etc. to the smallholder farmers so that they can increase the agricultural productivity and can participate in the market with their surplus production.
Abstract: Agriculture is the mainstay of Bangladesh economy. It plays important role to the growth and development of the economy of the country. Most of the farmers of Bangladesh are marginal and small farmers. They consume most part of their produced commodities. The market participation rate of them with surplus production is very low. Therefore, the main...
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