Research Article
Equatorial Flux Cancellation Imprinted in Solar Wind Helium: A Reliable Herald of the Solar Cycle Transition
Belay Sitotaw Goshu*
Issue:
Volume 6, Issue 4, December 2026
Pages:
121-135
Received:
16 September 2026
Accepted:
27 September 2026
Published:
9 October 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.frontiers.20260604.11
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Abstract: Background: Predicting the onset of a new solar cycle is challenging because the sunspot minimum can only be identified retrospectively. A real time, in situ proxy is needed. Purpose: We investigate whether the solar wind helium abundance (AHe) provides a reliable herald of cycle onset and test the hypothesis that equatorial flux cancellation drives the observed “shutoff” event. Methods: Using ACE/SWICS, Wind/SWE, and OMNI data (1995–2025), we analysed daily AHe across the Cycle 23?24 and Cycle 24-25 minima. Equatorial flux cancellation rates Rcancel were derived from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI magnetograms. Cross?correlation and linear regression quantified the relationship between the AHe shutoff and peak cancellation. Findings: AHe exhibits a three-phase pattern: a pre-minimum rise, a sharp shutoff (15–30 days, 60–80% drop), and rapid recovery. The shutoff precedes the smoothed sunspot minimum by 22–117 days. Peak Rcancel leads the shutoff by 19 days on average (cross correlation 0.84, p<0.005), and the helium drop magnitude scales with Rcancel, peak (r=0.71, p=0.002). Conclusion: Equatorial flux cancellation imprints a distinct, repeatable signature in solar wind helium, providing a robust, real?time herald of solar cycle transition. Recommendation: Continuous AHemonitoring at L1 should become a standard operational tool for cycle onset prediction, with an alert issued when shutoff recovery exceeds 50% of the pre?shutoff level. We predict the Cycle 26 shutoff between April–October 2029.
Abstract: Background: Predicting the onset of a new solar cycle is challenging because the sunspot minimum can only be identified retrospectively. A real time, in situ proxy is needed. Purpose: We investigate whether the solar wind helium abundance (AHe) provides a reliable herald of cycle onset and test the hypothesis that equatorial flux cancellation drive...
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