Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects the frequency and length of temperature and rainfall is global issue. Climate change is statistical variations over an extended period in the features of the climate system, such as variations in global temperatures and precipitation, caused by human and natural sources. In this work coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for Africa, which integrates climate forecasts from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5 based on an ensemble of GCM RCM model was used to statistically downscale the climate change scenarios. This study aimed to estimate climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. The impact of climate change has been evaluated by reporting under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the extraction and bias correction of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, as well as rainfall of 30-year overlap periods, CMhyd has been employed. The annual minimum temperatures are predicted to increase by 2.94, 3.45, 3.21, and 3.59°C and annual maximum temperatures increased by 2.61, 2.83, 2.71 and 3.36°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The change in rainfall reveals annual average decreases of 8.45 to 9.3% and 10.5 to 10.95% at RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Considering the evaluated parameters, minimum and maximum temperatures increased trends but for the rainfall, large fluctuations were predicted. Moreover, in the study years for the parameters in all simulated models, the RCP8.5 scenario estimated a higher amount than the RCP4.5 scenario. Implement various trees, apply water harvesting structure, Surface runoff harvesting and more multiple GCM-RCM driving models with various RCM outputs to improve more prediction accuracy in the future studies.
Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects the frequency and length of temperature and rainfall is global issue. Climate change is statistical variations over an extended period in the features of the climate system, such as variations in global temperatures and precipitation, caused by human and natural sources. In this work coordinated regional cli...Show More
Abstract: Trend analysis for the long-term average temperature and precipitation of Bale and East Bale Zones during 1901 to 2016 has been performed for selected 5 stations to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. The precipitation characterizations viz. standardized Precipitation Index has been considered for Sinana, Goro, Ginnir, Dallo menna and Agarfa stations. This study was aimed to analysis ‘’long term historical climate analysis selected stations in Bale and East Bale zones’’. The study considered station nearby kebeles was selected purposively from highland, midland and lowland districts. Standardized Precipitation Index drought index method was used to classify drought condition of the area. The findings showed that, the average temperature of the district showed an increased in the past three decades whereas the annual precipitation of the districts showed a decreasing trend with some variation from the mean in the period 1901- 2016 which was validated with 1984 – 2016 observed data. In line with this, representative respondents were considered from lowland, highland and midland agro-ecologies. Long term annual mean temperature showed increase trends by 0.17°C per decade at Sinana, Goro, Ginnir and Agarfa stations. Additionally, it was revealed more increment by 0.19°C per decade at Dallo menna station. From long term climate data analysis, it was indicated that extremely wet recorded in 1903, 1914, 1917, 1926, 1977 and 2013, while extremely dry conditions were recorded in 1919, 1938 and 1943 annual precipitation recorded for the whole period has been calculated and interpreted.
Abstract: Trend analysis for the long-term average temperature and precipitation of Bale and East Bale Zones during 1901 to 2016 has been performed for selected 5 stations to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. The precipitation characterizations viz. standardized Precipitation Index has been considered for...Show More
Gashawun Dereje Balcha*,Abdisa Hirko Wami,Asaminew Teshome Game
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
30-39
Received:
2 August 2024
Accepted:
3 September 2024
Published:
23 September 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ijaos.20240801.13
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Abstract: The objective of the research paper was classified as three main points. The first was to determine the seasonal and annual rainfall distribution of the zone. The second and the third was to evaluating seasonal rainfall variability and characterizing the seasonal rainfall of east Shewa zone in terms of onset and cessation date. Coefficient of Variation, Precipitation Concentration Index and Standardized Anomaly Index was the indicators used to assess the variability of seasonal rainfall of the zone for both main and second rainy season. Climatologically the zone received high amount of rainfall during June to September with peak value in July ranging from 300 to 660 averagely and during Belg with being peak in month of April with mean seasonal rainfall amount of 125 to 300. Bega is the dry period for the East Shewa zone as annual rainfall cycle result shown from the data of the year 1981 to 2020. Additionally 550 to 1060 mean annual rainfall observed during the study period. The result of coefficient of variation indicated that during the main rainy season its values ranged from 20 to 35% while from 30 to 50% during the second rainy season. It also indicated that high rainfall variability observed over Rift valley areas. The result stated that most parts of the zone are under moderate precipitation concentration during Kiremt and mostly irregular in the second rainy season. Standardized anomaly indicated that dry season dominated during second rainy period than the main rainy period. Characterization and identified variability of seasonal rainfall was important especially for rain-fed agriculture and hydrological advisory at zone level to support community.
Abstract: The objective of the research paper was classified as three main points. The first was to determine the seasonal and annual rainfall distribution of the zone. The second and the third was to evaluating seasonal rainfall variability and characterizing the seasonal rainfall of east Shewa zone in terms of onset and cessation date. Coefficient of Varia...Show More