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Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model

Received: 3 January 2017     Accepted: 18 January 2017     Published: 27 June 2017
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Abstract

In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.

Published in International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 6, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
Page(s) 40-46
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Time Series Analysis, Industrial Electricity Consumption, Forecasting, Harvey Model, Autoregressive Model

References
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. (2017). Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 6(3), 40-46. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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    ACS Style

    Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo; Edet Joseph Archibong; Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2017, 6(3), 40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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    AMA Style

    Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo, Edet Joseph Archibong, Nsikak John Affia. Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2017;6(3):40-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14,
      author = {Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo and Edet Joseph Archibong and Nsikak John Affia},
      title = {Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model},
      journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
      volume = {6},
      number = {3},
      pages = {40-46},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20170603.14},
      abstract = {In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.},
     year = {2017}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Time Series Analysis of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model
    AU  - Ogungbemi Emmanuel Oluropo
    AU  - Edet Joseph Archibong
    AU  - Nsikak John Affia
    Y1  - 2017/06/27
    PY  - 2017
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
    T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
    JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
    JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
    SP  - 40
    EP  - 46
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2326-960X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20170603.14
    AB  - In this paper time series modeling and forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Specifically, Harvey Model and Autoregressive Model, (AR) are used. The data used are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for industrial electricity consumption ranging from 1979 – 2014. The results shows that Harvey Model has (r2) = 80.1% and RMSE = 65.2513 whereas Autoregressive Model has (r2) = 50.1% and RMSE = 71.3985. Obviously, Harvey model has better prediction accuracy than the AR model. The Harvey model was then used to forecast industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria for the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2029). According to the forecast result by the year 2029 the industrial consumption of Nigeria will stand at 539.65 MW/h as against 468.18 MW/h in 2015.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Electrical/Electronic and Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Nigeria

  • Department of Physic, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria

  • Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot Osura Ikot Ekpene, Nigeria

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