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Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties

Received: 1 June 2021     Accepted: 18 June 2021     Published: 30 June 2021
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Abstract

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
Page(s) 175-183
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Spatial-temporal, Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, Generalized Linear Mixed Models

References
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[3] American Cancer Society (2021, February 2021), Lung Cancer risk factors: https://www.cancer.org/cancer/lung-cancer/causes-risks-prevention/risk-factors.html.
[4] Elisa V Bandera, Jo L Freudenheim, and John E Vena. Alcohol consumption and lung cancer: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Biomarkers, 10 (8): 813–821, 2001.
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[6] Freddie Bray, Jacques Ferlay, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Rebecca L Siegel, Lindsey A Torre, and Ahmedin Jemal. Global cancer statistics 2018: Globocan estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA: a cancer journal for clinicians, 68 (6): 394–424, 2018.
[7] Jacques Ferlay, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Rajesh Dikshit, Sultan Eser, Colin Mathers, Marise Rebelo, Donald Maxwell Parkin, David Forman, and Freddie Bray. Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in globocan 2012. International journal of cancer, 136 (5): E359–E386, 2015.
[8] Dennis Kasper, Anthony Fauci, Stephen Hauser, Dan Longo, J Jameson, and Joseph Loscalzo. Harrison’s principles of internal medicine, 19e, volume 1. Mcgraw-hill, 2015.
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[15] Joab Otieno Odera, Elizabeth Odera, Jessie Githang’a, Edwin Oloo Walong, Fang Li, Zhaohui Xiong, and Xiaoxin Luke Chen. Esophageal cancer in Kenya. American journal of digestive disease, 4 (3): 23, 2017.
[16] R Pacella-Norman, MI Urban, F Sitas, H Carrara, R Sur, M Hale, P Ruff, M Patel, R Newton, D Bull, et al. Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black south africans. British journal of cancer, 86 (11): 1751–1756, 2002.
[17] Kirtika Patel, Johnston Wakhisi, Simeon Mining, Ann Mwangi, and Radheka Patel. Esophageal cancer, the topmost cancer at mtrh in the rift valley, kenya, and its potential risk factors. International Scholarly Research Notices, 2013, 2013.
[18] Torin Schaafsma, Jon Wakefield, Rachel Hanisch, Freddie Bray, Joachim Schüz, Edward JM Joy, Michael J Watts, and Valerie McCormack. Africa’s oesophageal cancer corridor: geographic variations in incidence correlate with certain micronutrient deficiencies. PloS one, 10 (10): e0140107, 2015.
[19] David J Spiegelhalter, Nicola G Best, Bradley P Carlin, and Angelika Van Der Linde. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the royal statistical society: Series b (statistical methodology), 64 (4): 583–639, 2002.
[20] CN Tenge, RT Kuremu, NG Buziba, K Patel, and PA Were. Burden and pattern of cancer in western kenya. East African medical journal, 86 (1), 2009.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. (2021). Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 10(4), 175-183. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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    ACS Style

    Joseph Kuria Waitara; Gregory Kerich; John Kihoro; Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2021, 10(4), 175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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    AMA Style

    Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2021;10(4):175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11,
      author = {Joseph Kuria Waitara and Gregory Kerich and John Kihoro and Anne Korir},
      title = {Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {10},
      number = {4},
      pages = {175-183},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20211004.11},
      abstract = {Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties
    AU  - Joseph Kuria Waitara
    AU  - Gregory Kerich
    AU  - John Kihoro
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    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
    T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    SP  - 175
    EP  - 183
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2326-9006
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
    AB  - Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.
    VL  - 10
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • School of Sciences and Aerospace Studies, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • School of Sciences and Aerospace Studies, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • School of Computing and Mathematics, The Co-operative University of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

  • National Cancer Registry, Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

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