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Estimating Survival Probability of Drug Users with Application to Drug and Substance Abuse in Kenya

Received: 28 June 2017     Accepted: 17 July 2017     Published: 27 November 2017
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Abstract

The contemporary studies on drug abuse have blamed the increasing menace of drug abuse on failure of governments to enact adequate laws prohibiting drug abuse and failure to place strict border controls to prevent entry of drugs. Others have blamed social media and modernization as key players towards the current trends of drug abuse. As a result studies have shifted from studying factors leading to drug abuse as these seem to be obvious to studying covariates that leading to improved probabilities of recovery upon treatment. Female substance users are said to be proportionately more likely to recover from drug use than male substance abusers. However studies have showed that female drug users experience low turnout for treatment from drug abuse. With the increasing trend of women drug users seeking treatment there is an urgent need to estimate survival probability of drug use subjects based on marital status, age, gender and job status. This study sought to determine the survival probability of drug users in Kenya for the period between July 2013 and June 2015. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to determine the survival probability of a subject entering into drug use at different stages of life based on predictive covariates. Survival probability of drug users based on age, gender, marital status and employment status was determined. The study recommended that there significant differences in survival probability based on gender, age, marital status and employment status. Therefore the study recommended that treatment services be tailored on treating subjects based on these predictive covariates.

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 6, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14
Page(s) 284-289
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Survival Probability, Kaplan Meier Analysis, Intervention Programs, Hazard Rate, Drug Abuse

References
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  • APA Style

    Robert Kasisi, Joseph Koske, Mathew Kosgei. (2017). Estimating Survival Probability of Drug Users with Application to Drug and Substance Abuse in Kenya. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 6(6), 284-289. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14

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    ACS Style

    Robert Kasisi; Joseph Koske; Mathew Kosgei. Estimating Survival Probability of Drug Users with Application to Drug and Substance Abuse in Kenya. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2017, 6(6), 284-289. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14

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    AMA Style

    Robert Kasisi, Joseph Koske, Mathew Kosgei. Estimating Survival Probability of Drug Users with Application to Drug and Substance Abuse in Kenya. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2017;6(6):284-289. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14,
      author = {Robert Kasisi and Joseph Koske and Mathew Kosgei},
      title = {Estimating Survival Probability of Drug Users with Application to Drug and Substance Abuse in Kenya},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {6},
      number = {6},
      pages = {284-289},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20170606.14},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20170606.14},
      abstract = {The contemporary studies on drug abuse have blamed the increasing menace of drug abuse on failure of governments to enact adequate laws prohibiting drug abuse and failure to place strict border controls to prevent entry of drugs. Others have blamed social media and modernization as key players towards the current trends of drug abuse. As a result studies have shifted from studying factors leading to drug abuse as these seem to be obvious to studying covariates that leading to improved probabilities of recovery upon treatment. Female substance users are said to be proportionately more likely to recover from drug use than male substance abusers. However studies have showed that female drug users experience low turnout for treatment from drug abuse. With the increasing trend of women drug users seeking treatment there is an urgent need to estimate survival probability of drug use subjects based on marital status, age, gender and job status. This study sought to determine the survival probability of drug users in Kenya for the period between July 2013 and June 2015. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to determine the survival probability of a subject entering into drug use at different stages of life based on predictive covariates. Survival probability of drug users based on age, gender, marital status and employment status was determined. The study recommended that there significant differences in survival probability based on gender, age, marital status and employment status. Therefore the study recommended that treatment services be tailored on treating subjects based on these predictive covariates.},
     year = {2017}
    }
    

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    AU  - Robert Kasisi
    AU  - Joseph Koske
    AU  - Mathew Kosgei
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    T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
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    AB  - The contemporary studies on drug abuse have blamed the increasing menace of drug abuse on failure of governments to enact adequate laws prohibiting drug abuse and failure to place strict border controls to prevent entry of drugs. Others have blamed social media and modernization as key players towards the current trends of drug abuse. As a result studies have shifted from studying factors leading to drug abuse as these seem to be obvious to studying covariates that leading to improved probabilities of recovery upon treatment. Female substance users are said to be proportionately more likely to recover from drug use than male substance abusers. However studies have showed that female drug users experience low turnout for treatment from drug abuse. With the increasing trend of women drug users seeking treatment there is an urgent need to estimate survival probability of drug use subjects based on marital status, age, gender and job status. This study sought to determine the survival probability of drug users in Kenya for the period between July 2013 and June 2015. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to determine the survival probability of a subject entering into drug use at different stages of life based on predictive covariates. Survival probability of drug users based on age, gender, marital status and employment status was determined. The study recommended that there significant differences in survival probability based on gender, age, marital status and employment status. Therefore the study recommended that treatment services be tailored on treating subjects based on these predictive covariates.
    VL  - 6
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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya

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