Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province

Xueqi Wang; Daixia Wang; Lei Wang

doi:doi:10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

Research Article |

| Peer-Reviewed

Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province

Xueqi Wang, Daixia Wang^*, Lei Wang

Published in Science Innovation (Volume 14, Issue 6)

Received: 3 October 2026 Accepted: 22 October 2026 Published: 10 November 2026

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Abstract

Against the backdrop of the county-level urbanization strategy and the comprehensive establishment of the territorial spatial planning system, augmenting county development momentum and elevating spatial carrying capacity have become pivotal to achieving high-quality regional development. Taking Zhejiang Province as an empirical study area, this paper establishes a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "scale, form, and spatial distribution." Utilizing landscape pattern analysis alongside the Gravity-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (Gravity-GTWR) model, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of county urban construction land and elucidates its underlying driving mechanisms driven by government, market, and social forces from 1980 to 2024.The empirical findings reveal that: (1) Urban construction land in counties has exhibited persistent spatial expansion, morphological boundary complexification, and localized patch agglomeration, evolving into five distinct carrying capacity patterns, including the fractal/complex large-patch type. Spatial scale is significantly positively correlated with morphological complexity, underscoring the stringent requirements of developmental momentum for spatial compactness. (2) While demographic aggregation and economic growth serve as the primary impetuses, the tripartite interaction among governmental planning control, market capital allocation, and civic societal responsiveness dictates the structural efficiency of carrying capacity release, displaying profound spatial heterogeneity between northeastern and southwestern Zhejiang. (3) The acute contradiction between constrained regional resource endowments and high-intensity development momentum has provoked localized land overexpansion and spatial fragmentation, thereby circumscribing the enhancement of comprehensive carrying capacity and threatening ecological security.Consequently, this paper suggests: reinforcing the transmission of territorial spatial planning to safeguard baseline carrying capacities, implementing differentiated spatial interventions across typologies to invigorate endogenous development momentum, and constructing a diversified governance framework characterized by "government leadership, market empowerment, and social collaboration," thereby providing scientific guidance and empirical references for bolstering county-level comprehensive carrying capacity and sustainable development.

Published in	Science Innovation (Volume 14, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
Page(s)	252-260
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Urban Construction Land, County Carrying Capacity, Development Momentum, Spatiotemporal Evolution, Spatial Governance, Zhejiang Province

1．引言

国土空间规划体系重构与县城承载型城镇化推进的双重背景下，激发县域内生动力已成为高质量发展的必由之路。深入探究县域城镇建设用地的时空分异规律与驱动机理，是优化国土空间格局、提升县域综合承载力与可持续发展韧性的核心抓手。研究表明，在县域城镇化战略推进过程中，县级单元经济活力持续增强、基础设施不断完善，驱动城镇建设用地呈现规模扩张、形态重组与分布演化的阶段性分异特征，并与区域土地利用系统的结构稳定性紧密关联

[1, 2]

，这些动态变化不仅直接映射新型城镇化的空间轨迹，更深刻影响着县域空间承载力、资源配置效率及可持续发展能力

[3]

。尤其值得关注的是，城镇建设用地布局的合理化与集约化已成为衔接县城承载力提升目标与动能转换需求的核心议题。因此，深入揭示县域城镇建设用地的演变规律与驱动机制，既是破解国土空间开发保护矛盾、提升规划科学性与实施有效性的基础支撑，更为县域单元统筹“高质量发展—高水平保护—高效能治理”提供理论与实践依据。

国内外学者对城镇建设用地空间特征的研究已形成丰富积累，主要聚焦于城镇建设用地的规模特征、形态特征、分布特征及其演变过程

[4, 5]

，相关研究多基于多时序的遥感影像数据和统计数据，并广泛采用CA-Markov模型、PLUS模型等分析方法

[6-9]

对城镇建设用地进行规模及时空扩展预测研究。在城市群尺度下，国内学者基于全国层面的城镇建设用地分析，结合总量分布、扩张强度、扩张速度等分析全国层面的城镇建设用地的时空异质性情况；中国城市的城镇建设用地扩张速度显著快于人口增长速度

[10]

，而处于城市体系中较低等级的中小城市和县城，其要素集聚能力与发展动能相对不强

[11]

；不同经济区建设用地扩张强度和速度具有较大空间差异，扩张规模按照东部、西部、中部、东北地区逐渐递减，东部、中部为主要的扩张集中地；在全国层面存在建设用地无序蔓延，城市用地结构不协调导致承载力释放受限等共性问题

[12-14]

。在省域尺度下，研究侧重于地级市之间的空间分异现象，研究区域多为东部、中部地区，少数涉及西部、东北部地区

[15-18]

。

在城市尺度下，研究侧重于土地利用的时空动态变化、主导模式划分、增长趋势对比和影响因素分析

[19-21]

等方面；城市的扩张类型

[22]

和影响因素多元化，城镇建设用地形态呈现“集聚”和“扩散”交替变化的过程

[23]

；经济增长与城镇建设用地扩张的关联度较高

[24]

，自然地理因素的影响力呈现下降趋势。已有研究表明，建设用地的规模扩张、结构重组及功能转型三者之间存在着深度的互馈机制与协同演化关系。然而，随着国土空间规划体系的建立，如何将建设用地的规模、形态、分布等多维演变特征置于县城功能增强与承载力提升的整体格局中进行系统性、关联性分析，并明确其与优化目标的互动关系，相关研究尚未深化。特别是在县域尺度，亟须构建融合“动能—承载力”优化导向的评价框架，深入剖析其多维特征协同演化及其背后复杂的“政府—市场—社会”作用机制。

浙江省地处我国经济与城镇化发展的前沿地带，承担着“推进以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化建设”及共同富裕示范区建设的重要使命。“七山一水二分田”地理格局与高强度开发需求存在显著矛盾，其用地演变集中反映了东部沿海发达地区提升承载力过程中的人地矛盾。近年来，在快速城镇化进程中，部分县域仍面临城镇建设用地规模无序扩张、形态破碎化与分布失衡等突出问题，对县城承载潜力的释放、耕地保护及生态安全构成挑战，与国土空间优化目标相违背。因此，本文立足国土空间规划战略导向，以浙江省80个县级单元为研究对象，构建覆盖全域的“规模—形态—分布”三维特征评价体系，综合运用景观指数和重心—GTWR模型等方法，系统解析1980-2024年以来不同发展阶段城镇建设用地的时空演变特征和规律，深入剖析政府、市场及社会三重主体的作用机制。研究成果旨在为科学编制县域国土空间规划、增强县域发展动能与承载力、提升空间集约利用水平和促进区域协调可持续发展提供理论依据与实践。

2. 研究区、数据来源与方法

2.1 研究区概况

浙江地处东南沿海核心板块，是驱动长三角城市群协同演进的关键支点。在县域城镇化战略赋能下，浙江县域正经历着高密度的要素汇聚与空间重构，成为审视发展动能转换、检验空间承载边界与探索高质效空间治理的典型实践场域。省域地貌呈现“七山一水二分田”特征，平原面积仅占23.2%，适宜建设用地资源高度稀缺。截至2024年，全省城镇化水平达75.5%，县域经济总量长期位居全国前列。然而，随着城镇化进入中后期，县城承载力受限与动能转换迟滞的矛盾日益凸显，表现为城镇建设用地的碎片化扩张对有限平坦资源的挤占。因此，立足“动能—承载力”双重维度，探究县级单元城镇建设用地的规模—形态—分布演变，对于破解县域空间治理瓶颈、优化国土空间开发保护格局具有重要的示范意义

2.2 研究方法

本文通过景观指数表征县域空间的承载效率，通过重心-GTWR模型识别发展动能。景观指数能够定量描述斑块的空间配置，反映县城在扩张过程中的空间利用效能与紧凑度。本文从规模、形状和分布三维度出发，选取斑块面积（CA）、面积加权斑块平均分维数（FRAC-AM）和面积加权平均斑块最近距离（ENN-AM），分别对应承载规模、空间利用效率和功能连接度。其计算公式为：

{CA}_{j =} \sum_{i, j =1}^{n} a_{ij}

(1)

{FRAC}_{j} = \frac{a_{ij}}{\sum_{i,j=1}^{n} a_{ij}} × \frac{2 ln 0.25 P_{ij}}{ln a_{ij}}

(2)

{ENN}_{j} = \frac{a_{ij}}{\sum_{i, j}^{n} a_{ij}} h_{ij}

(3)

式中：

a_{ij}

为区县

j

中第

i

个斑块的面积；

P_{ij}

为区县

j

中第

i

个斑块的周长；

h_{ij}

为区县

j

中第

i

个斑块中心到距离其最近的斑块中心的距离。相关指数的逻辑内涵如表1所示。

表1 景观指数描述。

指数名称	水平	意义
斑块面积（CA）	类型	表现某种用地斑块的总体面积规模。
面积加权平均斑块分维数（FRAC-AM）	类型	指景观不规则几何形状的非整数维数，反映景观中斑块形状的复杂程度。
面积加权平均斑块最近距离（ENN-AM）	类型	描述景观中同类斑块的紧凑程度，距离越大说明斑块间越分散。

为解析驱动县域空间演变的核心动能，本文将重心转移模型与 GTWR 模型结合。GTWR 模型通过引入时间因子，能够精准捕捉不同阶段发展动能对土地承载力利用的空间异质性。其模型描述为：

Y_{i} = β_{0} (X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i}) + \sum_{k} β_{k} (X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i}) X_{ik} + ε_{i}

(4)

式中：

Y_{i}

为观测值；

(X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i})

为第

i

个样本点的时空坐标；

β_{0} (X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i})

为

i

样本点的回归常数，即时空地理加权回归模型中的常数项；

β_{k} (X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i})

为

i

样本点的第

k

个回归系数，即模型函数在时空坐标

(X_{i}^{t}, Y_{i}^{t}, T_{i})

位置的权重；

X_{ik}

为独立变量

X_{k}

在

i

样本点处的值，即时空地理加权回归模型指标体系中各个量化指标的值；

ε_{i}

是模型函数的残差。

本文以浙江省县（市、区）一级为基本分析单位，从内生动能与保障能力两方面选取6项指标作为解释变量，以识别驱动县域空间格局演化的主导动能（表2）。

表2 县域城镇建设用地空间布局影响因素确定。

因素类别	因素亚类	解释变量	逻辑内涵
增长动能	经济总量	人均GDP	县域发展的根本经济推力
	产业结构	二、三产业产值比	产业转型升级对空间置换的动能
	投资拉动	人均固定资产投资	政府与市场对基础设施承载力的投入强度
社会载体	人口集聚	人口密度	空间承载的对象基数与服务需求动能
	公共保障	人均地方财政支出	政府提升公共设施承载水平的保障能力
	消费活力	人均年末储蓄存款全额	社会主体对品质空间需求的响应动能

2.3 数据来源及预处理

本文土地利用数据采用中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所1980年—2024年30 m分辨率栅格数据，社会经济统计数据来自历年《浙江省统计年鉴》及各县市统计公报。通过覆盖40余年的长周期观测，旨在系统还原浙江县域从规模驱动向质量驱动转型过程中，城镇建设用地与承载力提升之间的演进逻辑。

3. 浙江省县域城镇建设用地时空演变特征分析

3.1 县域空间承载规模与形态演进特征

县域作为浙江省区域发展的基本单元，其城镇建设用地的演进不仅是地理空间的扩张，更是发展动能集聚与空间承载力动态调整的直观映射。解析其演变特征，对于优化县域国土空间格局、提升新型城镇化质量具有重要参考价值。

1980年以来，浙江省县域城镇建设用地在“承载规模—形态绩效—分布集聚”三个维度呈现出显著的演化规律：

（1）承载规模：由单核萌芽向多核网络的承载扩张。

1980-2024年，全省县域城镇建设用地规模呈显著扩张趋势，逐步夯实了县域发展的实体空间载体。2000年以前，扩张速度相对缓慢，承载动能尚处于萌芽阶段；2000-2010年，随工业化进程加速，浙北及浙东沿海县域规模剧增，形成了强劲的增长极；2010年至今，扩张进入稳步增量与存量优化并重阶段，空间结构由单一核心向多中心网络化演进，区域承载格局趋于稳定。

（2）形态特征：复杂化演进映射出的发展动能博弈。

随着建设用地规模扩张，边界形态趋于复杂，反映了快速增长动能与资源本底约束间的复杂关系。1980年代用地形态规整，属于典型的点状低强度开发。随着经济动能释放，浙中、浙东等地斑块分维数显著提升，不规则扩张凸显。值得注意的是，2020年后杭州等核心县域分维数开始微降，表明其发展动能已率先由“外延扩张”转向“内涵紧凑”，空间治理效能开始显现。

（3）分布特征：集聚效应驱动的连通性提升。

面积加权平均斑块最近距离（ENN-AM）的逐年下降，有力证明了浙江县域城镇空间已由“散点分布”转向“群落集聚”。这种分布紧凑性的增强，有效促进了基础设施的共享与产业要素的协同，显著提升了县域空间的系统承载效能。

Download: Download full-size image

Figure 1. 图1 1980—2024年浙江省县域城镇建设用地规模、形态及分布特征。

3.2 动能导向下的县域空间布局类型划分

空间布局类型是研判县域发展动能强度与承载潜力分异的关键依据。本文综合规模、形态与分布特征，将全省80个县级单元划分为五种典型空间模式（表3），以揭示不同动能驱动下的空间响应差异。

表3 城镇建设用地空间类型划分与特征

类型划分		空间几何特征	承载力与动能表现
集聚型	分形/复杂大斑块型	规模＞50 km²或城镇化率大于50%，形态复杂	强动能驱动型：人口与产业极度集聚，承载压力大，需侧重空间更新与存量提质
	分形小斑块型	规模较小，形状复杂，ENN＜5000 m	潜力爆发型：处于快速扩张期，发展动能强劲但用地略显无序，需强化规划引导
	复杂小斑块型	规模适中，形态较复杂	稳步增长型：动能释放较为平稳，空间紧凑度有待提升，是承载力优化的重点区
	简单小斑块型	规模较小，形态规整	初级发育型：发展动能尚待挖掘，空间承载力富余，具备高起点的规划塑造空间
散布型		规模小，分布极散（ENN 5000 m）	动能匮乏型：城镇空间呈“飞地”特征，集聚动能不足，承载效能较低，需防范蔓延风险

1980-2024年间，浙江省县域空间经历了深刻的类型重构。1990年代起，大量县域由“简单小斑块型”向“复杂小斑块型”转型，成为全省县域空间演变的主体。杭州、宁波、温州、金华等核心区域的县级单元率先演化为分形/复杂大斑块型，表现出极强的要素集聚能力。

研究发现，用地规模与形态复杂度呈正相关，即动能越强的地区，早期空间形态往往越复杂。但随着高质量发展目标的确立，浙江县域正通过空间类型的演进，逐步由无序扩张转向集聚协同，这种转变是县域增强发展动能、实现承载力跃迁的核心空间表现。

4. 浙江省县域城镇建设用地演进影响因素和作用机制分析

4.1 县域空间演进的驱动动能识别

城镇建设用地演进不仅是空间边界的扩张，更是各种发展动能交织作用的结果。本文聚焦经济与社会维度，采用重心-GTWR模型识别驱动县域空间格局演化的主导动能，结果显示浙江省县域用地演进呈现出显著的动能分异特征（表4）。

表4 县域城镇建设用地演进的主导动能及区域分异。

空间特征	主导动能类别	主导因素	典型代表区域	承载力映射逻辑
规模扩张	内生增长动能	人口规模、经济总量	浙东北（杭甬嘉绍）	强动能驱动下的高强度集聚，承载压力趋向饱和。
	保障性动能	公共财政、产业结构	浙东南（温台）	民营经济驱动，承载空间随产业升级动态调整。
	投资驱动动能	投资建设、居民储蓄	浙中、浙西（金衢丽）	依赖外部投入与政策支持，承载规模稳步起步。
形态复杂化	结构转型动能	产业结构、经济总量	浙东北、浙东南	产业迭代引发空间重组，形态复杂化反映了动能转换的活跃度。
分布集约度	服务响应动能	人口密度、公共财政	浙西北、浙中	社会公共服务对人口集聚的引导，驱动空间向紧凑型承载演进。

核心动能驱动空间格局定型。人口与经济总量的增长是县域空间演进的原动力。浙东北地区凭借强劲的内生动能，形成了高人口—强经济驱动下的规模化承载范式；而浙东南则依托“温州模式”的民营活力，通过财政与产业动能的交互，实现了工业空间的快速迭代。

结构动能驱动空间绩效提升。产业结构的转型是形状复杂化的主要动能，第二产业的集聚拉开框架，第三产业的嵌入填补缝隙，这种动能交替直接决定了县域空间的利用效率与承载质量。

政策动能引导承载布局优化。在浙中、浙西等动能相对较弱的地区，政府通过投资建设与公共财政支出发挥保障性动能作用，引导城镇空间由散点分布向县城中心集聚，有效提升了基础设施的整体承载水平。

4.2 “动能—承载”双向作用机制解析

基于对影响因子的深度解析，本文构建了以政府、市场、社会为核心主体的作用机制框架（图2），揭示其如何共同驱动县域增强发展动能与提高承载能力。

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Figure 2. 图2 不同空间作用主体对城镇建设用地演变作用机制。

1）政府主体：战略引领与承载约束机制。

政府通过制度供给与规划调控，为县域发展划定承载底线。在演进过程中，政府主体由早期的增长追求转变为现在的治理导向，通过地方财政支出与固定资产投资，布局公共服务设施，为增强县城综合承载力提供硬支撑。

2）市场主体：要素配置与动能激活机制。

市场主体是空间演进中最为活跃的动能。资本在利润驱动下流向效率更高的区域，驱动产业要素在县域空间内集聚分布。这种自下而上的力量有效提升了土地的经济承载效能，是县域经济发展动能持续爆发的关键。

3）社会主体：需求响应与品质提升机制。

随着城镇化进入中后期，社会主体对空间品质的要求成为不可忽视的动能。城镇居民的空间选择偏好直接影响着商业与居住空间的微观演化。通过公众参与机制，社会主体的反馈能够修正政府与市场的空间决策，确保承载能力的提升符合“人民城市”的价值导向。

浙江县域城镇建设用地的空间演进，已完成了从市场主体单向驱动向政府引领、市场赋能、社会协同多元协同机制的转变。在“十五五”规划前期，这种协同机制的核心目标应锚定在：通过精准投放政策动能，激活要素配置动能，最终实现高品质的空间承载。

5结论

本文以浙江省80个县级单元为研究对象，系统剖析了1980—2024年城镇建设用地的时空演进特征及其动能机制，得出以下主要结论：

1）县域空间演进呈现“规模扩张—效能重组”的阶段性特征。浙江省县域城镇建设用地规模随发展动能的积聚持续扩张，空间结构由“单核引领”迈向“多核网络”的承载模式。同时，用地斑块的复杂性随规模同步增长，反映了快速城镇化进程中空间形态对复杂地形与多元功能的动态响应，空间分布整体呈现显著的集聚化趋势，斑块连通性增强。

2）空间布局形成了明显的“类型分化—模式更迭”规律。全省县域可划分为分形/复杂大斑块型、分形小斑块型等五类空间模式。研究期内，大部分县域实现了由“散布/简单”向“复杂小斑块型”的跨越，形成了以复杂小斑块型为主体的空间分布格局。这种类型更迭映射了县域空间承载力由初级分散向中级集约的演进路径。

3）“经济—社会”双轮驱动是县域空间动能的核心来源。人口集聚与经济增长是驱动空间演进的基础性动能。其中，浙东北地区受内生动能驱动呈现高强度集约演进，而浙西南等地区在政策动能保障下呈现出投资拉动型的空间扩张，不同动能因子的交互作用决定了县域城镇承载能力的差异化表现。

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Wang, X., Wang, D., Wang, L. (2026). Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Science Innovation, 14(6), 252-260. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

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Wang, X.; Wang, D.; Wang, L. Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Sci. Innov. 2026, 14(6), 252-260. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

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Wang X, Wang D, Wang L. Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Sci Innov. 2026;14(6):252-260. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

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@article{10.11648/j.si.20261406.15,
  author = {Xueqi Wang and Daixia Wang and Lei Wang},
  title = {Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province},
  journal = {Science Innovation},
  volume = {14},
  number = {6},
  pages = {252-260},
  doi = {10.11648/j.si.20261406.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.si.20261406.15},
  abstract = {Against the backdrop of the county-level urbanization strategy and the comprehensive establishment of the territorial spatial planning system, augmenting county development momentum and elevating spatial carrying capacity have become pivotal to achieving high-quality regional development. Taking Zhejiang Province as an empirical study area, this paper establishes a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "scale, form, and spatial distribution." Utilizing landscape pattern analysis alongside the Gravity-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (Gravity-GTWR) model, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of county urban construction land and elucidates its underlying driving mechanisms driven by government, market, and social forces from 1980 to 2024.The empirical findings reveal that: (1) Urban construction land in counties has exhibited persistent spatial expansion, morphological boundary complexification, and localized patch agglomeration, evolving into five distinct carrying capacity patterns, including the fractal/complex large-patch type. Spatial scale is significantly positively correlated with morphological complexity, underscoring the stringent requirements of developmental momentum for spatial compactness. (2) While demographic aggregation and economic growth serve as the primary impetuses, the tripartite interaction among governmental planning control, market capital allocation, and civic societal responsiveness dictates the structural efficiency of carrying capacity release, displaying profound spatial heterogeneity between northeastern and southwestern Zhejiang. (3) The acute contradiction between constrained regional resource endowments and high-intensity development momentum has provoked localized land overexpansion and spatial fragmentation, thereby circumscribing the enhancement of comprehensive carrying capacity and threatening ecological security.Consequently, this paper suggests: reinforcing the transmission of territorial spatial planning to safeguard baseline carrying capacities, implementing differentiated spatial interventions across typologies to invigorate endogenous development momentum, and constructing a diversified governance framework characterized by "government leadership, market empowerment, and social collaboration," thereby providing scientific guidance and empirical references for bolstering county-level comprehensive carrying capacity and sustainable development.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province
AU  - Xueqi Wang
AU  - Daixia Wang
AU  - Lei Wang
Y1  - 2026/11/10
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
T2  - Science Innovation
JF  - Science Innovation
JO  - Science Innovation
SP  - 252
EP  - 260
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
AB  - Against the backdrop of the county-level urbanization strategy and the comprehensive establishment of the territorial spatial planning system, augmenting county development momentum and elevating spatial carrying capacity have become pivotal to achieving high-quality regional development. Taking Zhejiang Province as an empirical study area, this paper establishes a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "scale, form, and spatial distribution." Utilizing landscape pattern analysis alongside the Gravity-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (Gravity-GTWR) model, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of county urban construction land and elucidates its underlying driving mechanisms driven by government, market, and social forces from 1980 to 2024.The empirical findings reveal that: (1) Urban construction land in counties has exhibited persistent spatial expansion, morphological boundary complexification, and localized patch agglomeration, evolving into five distinct carrying capacity patterns, including the fractal/complex large-patch type. Spatial scale is significantly positively correlated with morphological complexity, underscoring the stringent requirements of developmental momentum for spatial compactness. (2) While demographic aggregation and economic growth serve as the primary impetuses, the tripartite interaction among governmental planning control, market capital allocation, and civic societal responsiveness dictates the structural efficiency of carrying capacity release, displaying profound spatial heterogeneity between northeastern and southwestern Zhejiang. (3) The acute contradiction between constrained regional resource endowments and high-intensity development momentum has provoked localized land overexpansion and spatial fragmentation, thereby circumscribing the enhancement of comprehensive carrying capacity and threatening ecological security.Consequently, this paper suggests: reinforcing the transmission of territorial spatial planning to safeguard baseline carrying capacities, implementing differentiated spatial interventions across typologies to invigorate endogenous development momentum, and constructing a diversified governance framework characterized by "government leadership, market empowerment, and social collaboration," thereby providing scientific guidance and empirical references for bolstering county-level comprehensive carrying capacity and sustainable development.
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Xueqi Wang

College of Design and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China

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Daixia Wang

College of Design and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China

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Lei Wang

Zhejiang University Urban-Rural Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, China

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Figure 1

Figure 1. 图 1 1980—2024年浙江省县域城镇建设用地规模、形态及分布特征。
Figure 2

Figure 2. 图 2 不同空间作用主体对城镇建设用地演变作用机制。

Table 1

表1 景观指数描述。
Table 2

表2 县域城镇建设用地空间布局影响因素确定。
Table 3

表3 城镇建设用地空间类型划分与特征
Table 4

表4 县域城镇建设用地演进的主导动能及区域分异。

Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Wang, X., Wang, D., Wang, L. (2026). Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Science Innovation, 14(6), 252-260. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

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ACS Style

Wang, X.; Wang, D.; Wang, L. Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Sci. Innov. 2026, 14(6), 252-260. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Wang X, Wang D, Wang L. Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province. Sci Innov. 2026;14(6):252-260. doi: 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.si.20261406.15,
  author = {Xueqi Wang and Daixia Wang and Lei Wang},
  title = {Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province},
  journal = {Science Innovation},
  volume = {14},
  number = {6},
  pages = {252-260},
  doi = {10.11648/j.si.20261406.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.si.20261406.15},
  abstract = {Against the backdrop of the county-level urbanization strategy and the comprehensive establishment of the territorial spatial planning system, augmenting county development momentum and elevating spatial carrying capacity have become pivotal to achieving high-quality regional development. Taking Zhejiang Province as an empirical study area, this paper establishes a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "scale, form, and spatial distribution." Utilizing landscape pattern analysis alongside the Gravity-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (Gravity-GTWR) model, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of county urban construction land and elucidates its underlying driving mechanisms driven by government, market, and social forces from 1980 to 2024.The empirical findings reveal that: (1) Urban construction land in counties has exhibited persistent spatial expansion, morphological boundary complexification, and localized patch agglomeration, evolving into five distinct carrying capacity patterns, including the fractal/complex large-patch type. Spatial scale is significantly positively correlated with morphological complexity, underscoring the stringent requirements of developmental momentum for spatial compactness. (2) While demographic aggregation and economic growth serve as the primary impetuses, the tripartite interaction among governmental planning control, market capital allocation, and civic societal responsiveness dictates the structural efficiency of carrying capacity release, displaying profound spatial heterogeneity between northeastern and southwestern Zhejiang. (3) The acute contradiction between constrained regional resource endowments and high-intensity development momentum has provoked localized land overexpansion and spatial fragmentation, thereby circumscribing the enhancement of comprehensive carrying capacity and threatening ecological security.Consequently, this paper suggests: reinforcing the transmission of territorial spatial planning to safeguard baseline carrying capacities, implementing differentiated spatial interventions across typologies to invigorate endogenous development momentum, and constructing a diversified governance framework characterized by "government leadership, market empowerment, and social collaboration," thereby providing scientific guidance and empirical references for bolstering county-level comprehensive carrying capacity and sustainable development.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Evolution of County Urban Land and Carrying Capacity Enhancement in Zhejiang Province
AU  - Xueqi Wang
AU  - Daixia Wang
AU  - Lei Wang
Y1  - 2026/11/10
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
T2  - Science Innovation
JF  - Science Innovation
JO  - Science Innovation
SP  - 252
EP  - 260
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.si.20261406.15
AB  - Against the backdrop of the county-level urbanization strategy and the comprehensive establishment of the territorial spatial planning system, augmenting county development momentum and elevating spatial carrying capacity have become pivotal to achieving high-quality regional development. Taking Zhejiang Province as an empirical study area, this paper establishes a three-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing "scale, form, and spatial distribution." Utilizing landscape pattern analysis alongside the Gravity-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (Gravity-GTWR) model, this study systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of county urban construction land and elucidates its underlying driving mechanisms driven by government, market, and social forces from 1980 to 2024.The empirical findings reveal that: (1) Urban construction land in counties has exhibited persistent spatial expansion, morphological boundary complexification, and localized patch agglomeration, evolving into five distinct carrying capacity patterns, including the fractal/complex large-patch type. Spatial scale is significantly positively correlated with morphological complexity, underscoring the stringent requirements of developmental momentum for spatial compactness. (2) While demographic aggregation and economic growth serve as the primary impetuses, the tripartite interaction among governmental planning control, market capital allocation, and civic societal responsiveness dictates the structural efficiency of carrying capacity release, displaying profound spatial heterogeneity between northeastern and southwestern Zhejiang. (3) The acute contradiction between constrained regional resource endowments and high-intensity development momentum has provoked localized land overexpansion and spatial fragmentation, thereby circumscribing the enhancement of comprehensive carrying capacity and threatening ecological security.Consequently, this paper suggests: reinforcing the transmission of territorial spatial planning to safeguard baseline carrying capacities, implementing differentiated spatial interventions across typologies to invigorate endogenous development momentum, and constructing a diversified governance framework characterized by "government leadership, market empowerment, and social collaboration," thereby providing scientific guidance and empirical references for bolstering county-level comprehensive carrying capacity and sustainable development.
VL  - 14
IS  - 6
ER  -

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