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Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula

Received: 18 April 2023     Accepted: 15 May 2023     Published: 5 June 2023
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Abstract

Solar irradiance plays a critical role in Earth's energy balance and climate. Accurate sub-seasonal forecasts of surface solar irradiance are essential for various applications, including renewable energy planning and regional climate research. This study evaluates ensemble forecasts of surface solar irradiance using the ECMWF dataset (EC-ENS) with a 6-hourly time-step. We compare these forecasts with gridded observations from the China Meteorological Agency (CMA) over the Indo-China peninsular region. Solar irradiance, as Earth's primary energy source, is influenced by atmospheric conditions, and even minor fluctuations in the sun's energy output can significantly impact the climate. Hence, understanding and predicting solar irradiance variations are crucial. For the analysis, we utilize the EC-ENS model data and gridded observation data available from June 2021 to May 2022, with hourly and 6-hourly intervals. Performance evaluation metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE), are employed to assess the accuracy of the EC-ENS model against observations. Results show an RMSE of approximately 414.43 W/m², an MAE of 380.95 W/m², and an MBE of -309.72 W/m², providing insights into forecast deviations. Furthermore, this study focuses on capturing regional variations in solar irradiance. The spatially continuous hourly estimates derived from ensemble forecasts effectively reconstruct sub-seasonal patterns on smaller scales. This precise knowledge is crucial for applications such as site selection for solar power plants and understanding regional climate changes. Accurate assessment of solar irradiance enables informed decision-making for renewable energy planning and enhances our understanding of regional climate dynamics. In summary, performance evaluation metrics provide insights into forecast accuracy. Additionally, spatially continuous estimates capture regional variations, enabling precise predictions for renewable energy planning and climate research. Advancing our understanding of solar irradiance patterns contributes to sustainable energy strategies and enhances knowledge of regional climate dynamics.

Published in International Journal of Science, Technology and Society (Volume 11, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16
Page(s) 130-134
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Solar Irradiance, Sub-Seasonal Variability, Forecasting, ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System

References
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Cite This Article
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    Junyu Cai, Bing Ding, Veeranjaneyulu Chinta, Hao Chen, Peng Wang, et al. (2023). Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula. International Journal of Science, Technology and Society, 11(3), 130-134. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16

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    ACS Style

    Junyu Cai; Bing Ding; Veeranjaneyulu Chinta; Hao Chen; Peng Wang, et al. Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula. Int. J. Sci. Technol. Soc. 2023, 11(3), 130-134. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16

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    AMA Style

    Junyu Cai, Bing Ding, Veeranjaneyulu Chinta, Hao Chen, Peng Wang, et al. Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula. Int J Sci Technol Soc. 2023;11(3):130-134. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16,
      author = {Junyu Cai and Bing Ding and Veeranjaneyulu Chinta and Hao Chen and Peng Wang and Jiangfeng Zhang and Mingbo Liu and Ning Ding and Chen Zeng and Wei Zhang and Guiting Song},
      title = {Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula},
      journal = {International Journal of Science, Technology and Society},
      volume = {11},
      number = {3},
      pages = {130-134},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsts.20231103.16},
      abstract = {Solar irradiance plays a critical role in Earth's energy balance and climate. Accurate sub-seasonal forecasts of surface solar irradiance are essential for various applications, including renewable energy planning and regional climate research. This study evaluates ensemble forecasts of surface solar irradiance using the ECMWF dataset (EC-ENS) with a 6-hourly time-step. We compare these forecasts with gridded observations from the China Meteorological Agency (CMA) over the Indo-China peninsular region. Solar irradiance, as Earth's primary energy source, is influenced by atmospheric conditions, and even minor fluctuations in the sun's energy output can significantly impact the climate. Hence, understanding and predicting solar irradiance variations are crucial. For the analysis, we utilize the EC-ENS model data and gridded observation data available from June 2021 to May 2022, with hourly and 6-hourly intervals. Performance evaluation metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE), are employed to assess the accuracy of the EC-ENS model against observations. Results show an RMSE of approximately 414.43 W/m², an MAE of 380.95 W/m², and an MBE of -309.72 W/m², providing insights into forecast deviations. Furthermore, this study focuses on capturing regional variations in solar irradiance. The spatially continuous hourly estimates derived from ensemble forecasts effectively reconstruct sub-seasonal patterns on smaller scales. This precise knowledge is crucial for applications such as site selection for solar power plants and understanding regional climate changes. Accurate assessment of solar irradiance enables informed decision-making for renewable energy planning and enhances our understanding of regional climate dynamics. In summary, performance evaluation metrics provide insights into forecast accuracy. Additionally, spatially continuous estimates capture regional variations, enabling precise predictions for renewable energy planning and climate research. Advancing our understanding of solar irradiance patterns contributes to sustainable energy strategies and enhances knowledge of regional climate dynamics.},
     year = {2023}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Assessment of ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Solar Irradiance Forecast over Indo-China Peninsula
    AU  - Junyu Cai
    AU  - Bing Ding
    AU  - Veeranjaneyulu Chinta
    AU  - Hao Chen
    AU  - Peng Wang
    AU  - Jiangfeng Zhang
    AU  - Mingbo Liu
    AU  - Ning Ding
    AU  - Chen Zeng
    AU  - Wei Zhang
    AU  - Guiting Song
    Y1  - 2023/06/05
    PY  - 2023
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16
    T2  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
    JF  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
    JO  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
    SP  - 130
    EP  - 134
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2330-7420
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231103.16
    AB  - Solar irradiance plays a critical role in Earth's energy balance and climate. Accurate sub-seasonal forecasts of surface solar irradiance are essential for various applications, including renewable energy planning and regional climate research. This study evaluates ensemble forecasts of surface solar irradiance using the ECMWF dataset (EC-ENS) with a 6-hourly time-step. We compare these forecasts with gridded observations from the China Meteorological Agency (CMA) over the Indo-China peninsular region. Solar irradiance, as Earth's primary energy source, is influenced by atmospheric conditions, and even minor fluctuations in the sun's energy output can significantly impact the climate. Hence, understanding and predicting solar irradiance variations are crucial. For the analysis, we utilize the EC-ENS model data and gridded observation data available from June 2021 to May 2022, with hourly and 6-hourly intervals. Performance evaluation metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean bias error (MBE), are employed to assess the accuracy of the EC-ENS model against observations. Results show an RMSE of approximately 414.43 W/m², an MAE of 380.95 W/m², and an MBE of -309.72 W/m², providing insights into forecast deviations. Furthermore, this study focuses on capturing regional variations in solar irradiance. The spatially continuous hourly estimates derived from ensemble forecasts effectively reconstruct sub-seasonal patterns on smaller scales. This precise knowledge is crucial for applications such as site selection for solar power plants and understanding regional climate changes. Accurate assessment of solar irradiance enables informed decision-making for renewable energy planning and enhances our understanding of regional climate dynamics. In summary, performance evaluation metrics provide insights into forecast accuracy. Additionally, spatially continuous estimates capture regional variations, enabling precise predictions for renewable energy planning and climate research. Advancing our understanding of solar irradiance patterns contributes to sustainable energy strategies and enhances knowledge of regional climate dynamics.
    VL  - 11
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd, Research Institute, Hangzhou, China

  • Human Resource, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China

  • Marine College, Shandong University, Weihai, China

  • State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd, Research Institute, Hangzhou, China

  • Zhejiang Branch of China Datang Corporation Co., Ltd, Hangzhou, China

  • State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd, Research Institute, Hangzhou, China

  • Beijing Branch of State Grid Information and Communication Industry Group Co., Ltd, Beijing, China

  • State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd, Research Institute, Hangzhou, China

  • Guo Neng (Zhejiang) Energy Development Co., Ltd, Hangzhou, China

  • Marine College, Shandong University, Weihai, China

  • State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd, Research Institute, Hangzhou, China

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