The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment

Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory; Maha Hussein Mohamed; Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment

Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory

, Maha Hussein Mohamed^*

, Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud

Published in International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences (Volume 15, Issue 5)

Received: 28 June 2026 Accepted: 14 July 2026 Published: 9 September 2026

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Abstract

Climate change is negatively affecting food systems as a whole, as weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, which will pose a challenge to food production and may threaten the world’s people's ability to access and afford healthy diets, particularly in lower-income countries with higher rates of hunger and poverty. Inadequate diets will exacerbate the harm caused to people’s health and lead to higher rates of malnutrition among the population. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of climate change on food accessibility in Egypt over the period 2001–2023. We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to trace long-run and short-run effects. The empirical results indicate a significant negative effect of climate change on food access, with temperature having a positive effect on the prevalence of malnutrition—as temperature-related shocks negatively affect food supply and lead to higher domestic food prices, which in turn limit people’s ability to purchase healthy and adequate food, thereby increasing malnutrition rates among the population. Food price inflation negatively impacts access to food, as these sharp price increases lead to a contraction in real income and higher rates of malnutrition during climate shocks. With regard to gross domestic product per capita and its positive impact on access to food, this demonstrates that purchasing power and income act as fundamental structural buffers protecting Egyptians households from sharp rises in food price inflation. As for per capita food production, this has a negative impact on malnutrition rates.

Published in	International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences (Volume 15, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
Page(s)	178-190
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Food Accessibility, Prevalence of Under-nourishment, ARDL, Egypt

References

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Elbagory, K. A. W., Mohamed, M. H., Mahmoud, A. M. A. (2026). The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences, 15(5), 178-190. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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ACS Style

Elbagory, K. A. W.; Mohamed, M. H.; Mahmoud, A. M. A. The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. Int. J. Nutr. Food Sci. 2026, 15(5), 178-190. doi: 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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AMA Style

Elbagory KAW, Mohamed MH, Mahmoud AMA. The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. Int J Nutr Food Sci. 2026;15(5):178-190. doi: 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11,
  author = {Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory and Maha Hussein Mohamed and Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud},
  title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment},
  journal = {International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences},
  volume = {15},
  number = {5},
  pages = {178-190},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  abstract = {Climate change is negatively affecting food systems as a whole, as weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, which will pose a challenge to food production and may threaten the world’s people's ability to access and afford healthy diets, particularly in lower-income countries with higher rates of hunger and poverty. Inadequate diets will exacerbate the harm caused to people’s health and lead to higher rates of malnutrition among the population. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of climate change on food accessibility in Egypt over the period 2001–2023. We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to trace long-run and short-run effects. The empirical results indicate a significant negative effect of climate change on food access, with temperature having a positive effect on the prevalence of malnutrition—as temperature-related shocks negatively affect food supply and lead to higher domestic food prices, which in turn limit people’s ability to purchase healthy and adequate food, thereby increasing malnutrition rates among the population. Food price inflation negatively impacts access to food, as these sharp price increases lead to a contraction in real income and higher rates of malnutrition during climate shocks. With regard to gross domestic product per capita and its positive impact on access to food, this demonstrates that purchasing power and income act as fundamental structural buffers protecting Egyptians households from sharp rises in food price inflation. As for per capita food production, this has a negative impact on malnutrition rates.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment
AU  - Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory
AU  - Maha Hussein Mohamed
AU  - Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud
Y1  - 2026/09/09
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
T2  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
SP  - 178
EP  - 190
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2327-2716
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
AB  - Climate change is negatively affecting food systems as a whole, as weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, which will pose a challenge to food production and may threaten the world’s people's ability to access and afford healthy diets, particularly in lower-income countries with higher rates of hunger and poverty. Inadequate diets will exacerbate the harm caused to people’s health and lead to higher rates of malnutrition among the population. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of climate change on food accessibility in Egypt over the period 2001–2023. We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to trace long-run and short-run effects. The empirical results indicate a significant negative effect of climate change on food access, with temperature having a positive effect on the prevalence of malnutrition—as temperature-related shocks negatively affect food supply and lead to higher domestic food prices, which in turn limit people’s ability to purchase healthy and adequate food, thereby increasing malnutrition rates among the population. Food price inflation negatively impacts access to food, as these sharp price increases lead to a contraction in real income and higher rates of malnutrition during climate shocks. With regard to gross domestic product per capita and its positive impact on access to food, this demonstrates that purchasing power and income act as fundamental structural buffers protecting Egyptians households from sharp rises in food price inflation. As for per capita food production, this has a negative impact on malnutrition rates.
VL  - 15
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory

Economic Department, Beni-Suef University, Beni Suef, Egypt

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5030-5820
Maha Hussein Mohamed

Economic Department, Beni-Suef University, Beni Suef, Egypt

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0005-5484-2953
Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud

Economic Department, Beni-Suef University, Beni Suef, Egypt

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4734-6773

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APA Style

Elbagory, K. A. W., Mohamed, M. H., Mahmoud, A. M. A. (2026). The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences, 15(5), 178-190. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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ACS Style

Elbagory, K. A. W.; Mohamed, M. H.; Mahmoud, A. M. A. The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. Int. J. Nutr. Food Sci. 2026, 15(5), 178-190. doi: 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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AMA Style

Elbagory KAW, Mohamed MH, Mahmoud AMA. The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment. Int J Nutr Food Sci. 2026;15(5):178-190. doi: 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11,
  author = {Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory and Maha Hussein Mohamed and Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud},
  title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment},
  journal = {International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences},
  volume = {15},
  number = {5},
  pages = {178-190},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijnfs.20261505.11},
  abstract = {Climate change is negatively affecting food systems as a whole, as weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, which will pose a challenge to food production and may threaten the world’s people's ability to access and afford healthy diets, particularly in lower-income countries with higher rates of hunger and poverty. Inadequate diets will exacerbate the harm caused to people’s health and lead to higher rates of malnutrition among the population. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of climate change on food accessibility in Egypt over the period 2001–2023. We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to trace long-run and short-run effects. The empirical results indicate a significant negative effect of climate change on food access, with temperature having a positive effect on the prevalence of malnutrition—as temperature-related shocks negatively affect food supply and lead to higher domestic food prices, which in turn limit people’s ability to purchase healthy and adequate food, thereby increasing malnutrition rates among the population. Food price inflation negatively impacts access to food, as these sharp price increases lead to a contraction in real income and higher rates of malnutrition during climate shocks. With regard to gross domestic product per capita and its positive impact on access to food, this demonstrates that purchasing power and income act as fundamental structural buffers protecting Egyptians households from sharp rises in food price inflation. As for per capita food production, this has a negative impact on malnutrition rates.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Impact of Climate Change on Food Accessibility in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis of Prevalence of Undernourishment
AU  - Khaled Abdel Wahab Elbagory
AU  - Maha Hussein Mohamed
AU  - Ali Mohamed Ali Mahmoud
Y1  - 2026/09/09
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
T2  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Nutrition and Food Sciences
SP  - 178
EP  - 190
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2327-2716
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijnfs.20261505.11
AB  - Climate change is negatively affecting food systems as a whole, as weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, which will pose a challenge to food production and may threaten the world’s people's ability to access and afford healthy diets, particularly in lower-income countries with higher rates of hunger and poverty. Inadequate diets will exacerbate the harm caused to people’s health and lead to higher rates of malnutrition among the population. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of climate change on food accessibility in Egypt over the period 2001–2023. We adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to trace long-run and short-run effects. The empirical results indicate a significant negative effect of climate change on food access, with temperature having a positive effect on the prevalence of malnutrition—as temperature-related shocks negatively affect food supply and lead to higher domestic food prices, which in turn limit people’s ability to purchase healthy and adequate food, thereby increasing malnutrition rates among the population. Food price inflation negatively impacts access to food, as these sharp price increases lead to a contraction in real income and higher rates of malnutrition during climate shocks. With regard to gross domestic product per capita and its positive impact on access to food, this demonstrates that purchasing power and income act as fundamental structural buffers protecting Egyptians households from sharp rises in food price inflation. As for per capita food production, this has a negative impact on malnutrition rates.
VL  - 15
IS  - 5
ER  -

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