1. Introduction
Climate change represents a paramount global challenge, necessitating urgent and collective action. In response, nations and international bodies are escalating their commitments to carbon emission reductions and green, low-carbon development. Initiatives such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the European Union’s Green Deal, and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act exemplify this worldwide momentum. As the world's largest emitter and an emerging economy undergoing structural transformation, China accounted for approximately 16.8% of the global economy in 2024 according to the World Bank. However, this remarkable growth over the past four decades has been accompanied by an energy-intensive, polluting, and extensive development model, exerting severe environmental pressures. Data from the International Energy Agency's Global Energy Review 2025 indicate that China's carbon emissions remained substantial at 12.6 billion tonnes in 2024, accounting for nearly one-third of the global total. These figures underscore the heavy environmental toll exacted by China's developmental path, highlighting the formidable challenges inherent in pursuing a green transition. Against this backdrop, exploring viable pathways to green innovation holds immeasurable strategic and practical significance for achieving China’s “Dual Carbon” goals (carbon peak and neutrality) and fostering a comprehensive green transformation of its economy and society.
In the contemporary era of rapid technological advancement and digital transformation, technology transfer has emerged as a critical catalyst for green innovation and sustainable development globally. This is particularly significant as nations worldwide intensify efforts to combat climate change and transition toward low-carbon economies. Technology transfer plays a pivotal role in bridging knowledge gaps, fostering collaborative innovation, and accelerating the adoption and diffusion of environmentally sound technologies. For an emerging economy like China, which is undergoing profound structural transformation, technology transfer serves not only as a means to address pressing environmental challenges but also as a strategic instrument for achieving green development goals. Recognizing this strategic importance, China has implemented a series of coordinated policies and institutional reforms to strengthen its national innovation system, with particular emphasis on enhancing technology transfer mechanisms. The "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Market-Oriented Green Technology Innovation System (2023-2025)" exemplifies this approach, explicitly emphasizing the acceleration of research, development, and application of energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies through more efficient technology transfer channels. Complementing these institutional innovations, China has significantly intensified research and development (R&D) investment in green technologies, achieving notable breakthroughs in sectors including solar, wind, and electric vehicles. Concurrently, the integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things with traditional industries through these transfer mechanisms has optimized production processes while reducing energy consumption and waste generation. These synergistic developments demonstrate how strategically guided technology transfer can simultaneously drive economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability, highlighting the transformative potential of well-orchestrated innovation policies in fostering green innovation and advancing a low-carbon future.
Building upon these comprehensive efforts, China has strategically established a network of National Technology Transfer Centers (NTTCs) to systematically facilitate the flow and commercialization of green technologies. These centers function as specialized institutions dedicated to promoting the development and diffusion of common technologies, with a particular focus on transforming academic research outcomes into practical applications. The initiative dates back to 2001 when the first batch of NTTCs was established at leading universities including Tsinghua University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, marking a significant institutional innovation in bridging academic research with industrial needs. To strengthen this framework, the Chinese government has implemented a series of policy measures aimed at optimizing the operational mechanisms, building interconnected technology transfer networks, and developing supporting institutions within the national innovation system. These initiatives, complemented by enhanced intellectual property(IP) protection and specialized financing support, are designed to improve technology transfer efficiency specifically for green innovation. Against this institutional backdrop, this study focuses on rigorously examining the causal relationship and underlying impact mechanisms between the establishment of National Technology Transfer Centers and the development of green innovation, aiming to provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this policy intervention in advancing sustainable development goals.
The existing literature provides important foundations for this inquiry, primarily spanning two research streams: technology transfer carriers and green innovation. The first stream examines various institutional arrangements for technology transfer, with studies evaluating the performance of technology transfer offices
| [1] | de Falani Bezerra, S. Y. A., & Torkomian, A. L. V., Technology transfer offices: A systematic review of the literature and future perspective, Journal of the knowledge Economy. 2024, 15(1), 4455-4488. |
[1]
, universities and research institutions
| [2] | Chapple, W., Lockett, A., Siegel, D., & Wright, M., Assessing the relative performance of UK university technology transfer offices: parametric and non-parametric evidence, Research policy. 2005, 34(3), 369-384. |
[2]
, and patent agencies
| [3] | Fasi, M. A., An Overview on patenting trends and technology commercialization practices in the university Technology Transfer Offices in USA and China, World Patent Information. 2022, 68, 102097. |
[3]
. These studies generally find that technology transfer carriers can optimize the allocation of cluster innovation resources, stimulate corporate innovation vitality, enhance regional innovation capabilities, and improve innovation efficiency
| [4] | Lafuente, E., & Berbegal-Mirabent, J., Assessing the productivity of technology transfer offices: An analysis of the relevance of aspiration performance and portfolio complexity, The Journal of Technology Transfer. 2019, 44(3), 778-801. |
[4]
. However, despite recognizing National Technology Transfer Centers as important strategic nodes in China's technology transfer landscape, rigorous empirical evidence regarding their specific impacts remains limited. The second research stream conceptualizes green innovation as encompassing both environmental protection and technological advancement, characterized by "dual externalities" and dependence on knowledge interactions among multiple innovation entities
| [2] | Chapple, W., Lockett, A., Siegel, D., & Wright, M., Assessing the relative performance of UK university technology transfer offices: parametric and non-parametric evidence, Research policy. 2005, 34(3), 369-384. |
| [5] | Nordhaus, William D. The challenge of green innovation. In Handbook of Innovation and Intellectual Property Rights: Evolving Scholarship and Reflections. Northampton, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing; 2024, pp. 374–395. |
[2, 5]
. Consequently, scholars emphasize the crucial roles of government policies and public institutions in guiding and incentivizing green innovation
| [6] | Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Bursztyn, L., & Hemous, D., The environment and directed technical change, American economic review. 2012, 102(1), 131-166. |
[6]
, while also highlighting the importance of spatial carriers that provide supportive service functions. Empirical studies have identified various policy instruments that promote green innovation, including green factory initiatives
| [7] | Chen, Y., Li, W., Zeng, L., & Chen, M., Quality or quantity? The impact of voluntary environmental regulation on firm’s green technological innovation: evidence from green factory certification in China, Sustainability. 2025, 17(6), 2498. |
[7]
, e-commerce demonstration cities
| [8] | Huan, J., Lihong, Y., & Jiali, W., Research on the influence and mechanism of the National E-commerce Demonstration City on green technological innovation of enterprises, Science & Technology Progress and Policy. 2022, 39(10), 81-90. |
[8]
, and green credit policies
| [9] | Wang, S., Research on the Impact of Green Credit Policy on Green Technology Innovation of Listed Enterprises in Strategic Emerging Industries, Frontiers in Business, Economics and Management. 2023, 11(3), 175-182. |
[9]
. Nevertheless, China's green innovation process still faces significant challenges including local governments competing and resource regulation
| [9] | Wang, S., Research on the Impact of Green Credit Policy on Green Technology Innovation of Listed Enterprises in Strategic Emerging Industries, Frontiers in Business, Economics and Management. 2023, 11(3), 175-182. |
| [10] | Wan, K., Local governments competing for the environment and green innovation-evidence from China, Journal of Applied Economics. 2024, 27(1), 2358723. |
[9, 10]
, underscoring the need for policy guidance to optimize technology factor allocation and accelerate innovation diffusion. A significant gap remains: few studies have empirically investigated the impact of high-level, systemic platforms like China's National Technology Transfer Centers on green innovation outcomes. Therefore, the relationship between this specific form of technology transfer and green innovation development warrants rigorous empirical examination using richer data and more robust identification strategies.
To empirically identify the causal effect of National Technology Transfer Centers (NTTCs) on green innovation, this study exploits the staggered establishment of NTTCs across Chinese cities as a quasi-natural experiment. We employ a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) design, designating cities that received an NTTC as the treatment group and other comparable cities as the control group. This identification strategy effectively isolates the policy effect by accounting for time-invariant city-specific characteristics and common temporal trends. This comprehensive empirical approach not only enhances the credibility of our findings but also provides nuanced insights for designing targeted innovation policies to promote sustainable development.
This paper makes several key contributions to the existing literature. It provides the first systematic evaluation of the causal impact of China's National Technology Transfer Centers (NTTCs) on green innovation by leveraging their staggered establishment as a quasi-natural experiment. This approach addresses a significant research gap, as current studies on technology transfer and green innovation remain limited, particularly in systematically assessing high-level institutional platforms in developing economies. These contributions collectively offer valuable insights for designing targeted technology transfer policies to foster green development, with relevance extending beyond the Chinese context to other economies pursuing sustainable transformation.
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the institutional background of China's National Technology Transfer Center initiative and develops testable research hypotheses. Section 3 details the empirical methodology, including the econometric specification, variable construction, and data sources. Section 4 reports the baseline results. Section 5 concludes by summarizing the main findings and discussing their policy implications for promoting green development through technology transfer.
2. Research Design
2.1. Model Specification
To examine the policy effects of technology transfer centers on green innovation, this paper takes the establishment of national technology transfer centers as a quasi-natural experiment. Considering that the establishment of technology transfer centers is carried out in batches, the multi-period difference-in-differences(DID) method can better evaluate the net effect brought about by policy implementation. This paper refers to the research conducted by Cao Xiguang and Deng Min (2024) and utilizes a DID model to identify the causal relationship between technology transfer and urban green innovation. The benchmark regression model is set as follows:
(1)
Where i is cities and t is years. The dependent variable Getchit is the level of green innovation in a city. NTTCit is a dummy variable indicating whether city i established a National Technology Transfer Center in year t. Control is a vector of relevant city-level control variables. The variable μi is the city fixed effect, capturing city-specific factors that do not vary over time. And νt is the year fixed effect, controlling for time-specific factors that do not vary across cities. Another variable εit is the random error term. The coefficient α1 is the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator, which is the key parameter of interest, indicating the policy effect of the technology transfer center on green innovation. The standard errors of the regression results are clustered at the city level.
2.2. Variable Selection and Data Description
2.2.1. Dependent Variable
Green Innovation (Getchit): as an environmentally biased technological advancement, green innovation encompasses two layers of content: environmental protection and technological innovation. It possesses the characteristic of "dual externalities" that distinguishes it from technological innovation, reflecting the ecological civilization concept of respecting, conforming to, and protecting nature. Its aim is to achieve natural resource conservation and ecological environment protection. Compared to using the number of green patent grants as an indicator of green innovation, considering that the volume of green patent applications can better reflect the level of green innovation and avoid issues such as time lags that may introduce biases into causal identification (Xu Jia and Cui Jingbo, 2020), this paper adopts the number of green patent applications in the current year as a measure of urban green innovation (Getch) as the dependent variable for empirical testing. Based on existing research and considering different motivations for green innovation, this paper further categorizes green patents according to various innovation motivations. Since invention patents typically exhibit higher levels of innovation and longer research and development cycles, often serving as a key to enhancing core competitiveness, achieving technological upgrading, and expanding markets, the number of green invention patent applications in a city in the current year is used to measure substantive green innovation (Getch1). On the other hand, utility model patents are more focused on catering to government policies, market demands, and changes in business models, and are generally characterized by lower technological content and shorter research and development cycles. Therefore, the number of green utility model patent applications in a city in the current year is used to measure strategic green innovation (Getch2).
2.2.2. Core Explanatory Variable
This paper regards the establishment of the National Technology Transfer Center (NTTCit) as a landmark event. This variable is the interaction term between the dummy variable representing the type of city disposal and the dummy variable representing policy implementation. Cities that have been approved to establish a National Technology Transfer Center in the current year and subsequent years are classified as the "treatment group", with NTTCit assigned a value of 1, while the remaining cities are classified as the "control group", with NTTCit assigned a value of 0.
2.2.3. Control Variables
Urban green innovation is also influenced by other potential factors. Therefore, this paper excludes the possible impact of urban characteristics on the empirical results at the city level.The control variables selected are: population size (DEM): represented by the number of registered residents in the city at the end of the year; economic development level (PGDP): the per capita GDP of the city is selected as an indicator of economic development, and logarithmic transformation is applied here; industrial agglomeration level (IND): following the approach of Lin Boqiang and Tan Ruipeng (2019), this paper uses the ratio of the proportion of regional non-agricultural output value to the national non-agricultural output value to the ratio of the urban administrative area to the national administrative area; financial development level (FIN): represented by the ratio of the year-end balance of deposits and loans of financial institutions in the city to the city's GDP; social consumption level (CONS): the ratio of retail sales of consumer goods to the city's GDP is used as an indicator to measure the city's consumption level; transportation infrastructure level (INF): the city's highway mileage is selected to reflect the level of transportation infrastructure in the region; technology transfer channel (CHAN): the effective supply of communication network infrastructure is a prerequisite for the transfer of high-tech technologies. The popularization of communication networks not only affects the spatial distribution of enterprises but also reduces the relative spatial and temporal distance between regions, thereby reducing the costs of logistics and transportation, as well as technology transfer between different regions. Therefore, the number of mobile phones per 100 people is used as a proxy variable for the technology transfer channel.
This article takes a sample of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2021 as the research object. The data related to green patents are sourced from the China Research Data Service Platform (
CNRD), while other city-level data are mainly from the
CSMAR database, local government work reports, official websites of governments at all levels over the years, and the China City Statistical Yearbook. Missing values in the sample are filled through combining local statistical yearbooks or interpolation methods.
Table 1 presents the results of descriptive statistics.
Table 1. Descriptive statistics.
Variables | Observations | mean | S.D. | Min | Max |
Getch | 3396 | 0.0734 | 0.2156 | 0 | 3.467 |
Getch1 | 3396 | 0.0389 | 0.1310 | 0 | 2.4051 |
Getch2 | 3396 | 0.0345 | 0.0905 | 0 | 1.3047 |
DEM | 3396 | 5.884 | 0.7068 | 2.9704 | 8.136 |
PGDP | 3396 | 0.1071 | 0.0064 | 0 | 0.1306 |
IND | 3396 | 0.0119 | 0.0790 | 0 | 2.3843 |
FIN | 3396 | 0.0250 | 0.0128 | 0 | 0.2130 |
CONS | 3396 | 0.3805 | 0.1088 | 0 | 1.0126 |
INF | 3396 | 1.3183 | 1.0756 | 0 | 18.411 |
CHAN | 3396 | 0.1068 | 0.0738 | 0.0139 | 1.0166 |
Table 2. Baseline regression results.
Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
Getch | Getch1 | Getch2 |
NTTCit | 0.469*** (4.43) | 0.434*** (4.37) | 0.284*** (3.93) | 0.263*** (3.84) | 0.186*** (4.83) | 0.171*** (4.82) |
Controls | NO | YES | NO | YES | NO | YES |
Year | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
City | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
N | 3396 | 3396 | 3396 | 3396 | 3396 | 3396 |
R2 | 0.816 | 0.824 | 0.828 | 0.835 | 0.758 | 0.766 |
3. Policy Recommendations
This study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness, underlying mechanisms, and heterogeneous impacts of China’s National Technology Transfer Centers (NTTCs) in fostering urban green innovation. The findings demonstrate that NTTCs significantly enhance green innovation performance through three primary channels—technology spillovers, intellectual property protection, and energy conservation and emission reduction. These effects are more pronounced in cities with stronger business environments, eastern regional advantages, and deeper green lifestyle penetration, and exhibit statistically significant spatial spillovers. To translate these empirical regularities into actionable policy strategies and maximize the contribution of NTTCs to China’s low-carbon transition, this section proposes a set of systemic, evidence-based policy recommendations organized around four pillars: strategic planning, mechanism reinforcement, actor empowerment, and spatial synergy.
3.1. Strategic Planning: Targeted Expansion, Contextual Adaptation, and Role Delineation
Heterogeneous treatment effects identified in this study imply that the effectiveness of NTTCs is not homogeneous but conditional upon local economic, institutional, and sociocultural endowments. A uniform expansion strategy would therefore be suboptimal. Three strategic principles should govern the future evolution of the NTTC program.
3.1.1. Prudent Expansion with Dynamic Performance Management
The positive average treatment effect of NTTCs masks substantial cross-city heterogeneity. To mitigate policy dilution and inefficient resource allocation, the spatial expansion of NTTCs should be guided by a rigorous, data-driven pre-assessment framework. Drawing on the moderating factors validated in this study—urban commercial credit environment, green lifestyle prevalence, and regional economic status—a multidimensional evaluation index system should be constructed. This system should encompass economic fundamentals, innovation ecosystem maturity, industrial structure, and green development potential. Candidate cities demonstrating institutional readiness and strong spillover capacity should be prioritized for new NTTC establishment.
Furthermore, a dynamic entry-and-exit mechanism should be institutionalized. Each NTTC should undergo comprehensive performance audits every three years. Centers that fail to demonstrate measurable contributions to local green innovation or exhibit weak integration with regional industrial ecosystems should be subject to restructuring, leadership review, or functional reorientation. Such a mechanism ensures that policy resources remain concentrated on high-productivity nodes.
3.1.2. Regionally Differentiated Support Strategies
Pronounced regional heterogeneity in policy effects necessitates a shift from uniform treatment to tiered, context-sensitive policy support. For NTTCs located in eastern coastal regions and cities with advanced business environments—where marginal returns to NTTC presence are highest—policy support should transition from infrastructure provision to ecosystem empowerment. These centers should be positioned as internationally connected, high-end integrated service platforms specializing in the transfer, incubation, and capitalization of breakthrough green low-carbon technologies (i.e., substantive green innovation).
Conversely, for NTTCs in central and western regions with weaker innovation endowments, policy emphasis should center on capacity building and foundational strengthening. Central fiscal transfers and deepened east–west science and technology cooperation mechanisms should be mobilized to upgrade digital infrastructure, thereby reinforcing the technology transfer corridor effect. Simultaneously, targeted investments in cultivating local technology broker and manager cohorts should be prioritized. NTTCs in these regions should focus on the acquisition, adaptation, and diffusion of mature, cost-effective green technologies aligned with local resource endowments and industrial profiles (i.e., strategic green innovation), avoiding premature pursuit of frontier technologies with high adoption costs and uncertain local applicability.
3.1.3. Clear Delineation of Market and Government Roles
The effectiveness of technology transfer policy critically depends on the proper alignment of market mechanisms and state intervention. The government’s role should be explicitly defined as rule-setter, platform enabler, and service facilitator, rather than direct participant in technology transactions. First, continued administrative reforms should aim to dismantle institutional barriers and regional market segmentation that impede the cross-jurisdictional flow of innovation factors—talent, capital, data, and technological knowledge. Equal market access and factor treatment for all ownership types should be guaranteed.
Second, rather than subsidizing supply directly, government intervention should strategically amplify demand for green technologies. Medium- and long-term industrial planning, preferential public procurement of certified green technologies, post-delivery subsidies, and risk-sharing instruments should be deployed to cultivate stable, scalable markets for green innovations. Such demand-side measures can effectively align NTTC service portfolios with national carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality objectives without distorting market price signals.
3.2. Reinforcing Core Transmission Mechanisms
Causal mediation analysis identifies three distinct yet interrelated channels through which NTTCs stimulate green innovation. Policy interventions should be targeted at amplifying the throughput of each channel.
3.2.1. Maximizing Technology Spillovers Through Networked Ecosystems
Technology spillover constitutes the foundational mechanism of NTTC effectiveness. To enhance spillover intensity and scope, policy should prioritize the construction of an open, digitally enabled, and collaborative innovation network.
First, a nationally integrated digital technology transaction platform should be established. This requires mandating standardized data interfaces across all regional NTTCs and enabling secure, interoperable data sharing. A unified, authoritative, and dynamically updated national green technology achievement repository and corporate technology demand database should be developed. Advanced analytics—including artificial intelligence, blockchain, and big data—should be deployed to enable intelligent supply–demand matching, trusted transaction verification, and traceable contract enforcement. These digital infrastructures will substantially reduce search, evaluation, and negotiation costs, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs).
Second, deeper institutional integration among industry, academia, research, finance, and intermediary service providers should be incentivized. NTTCs should be encouraged and funded to lead the formation of innovation consortia or new R&D institutions, jointly established with leading firms, research universities, and financial institutions. These consortia should target pre-competitive green technology challenges with clear commercialization pathways. A challenge-based, market-driven R&D procurement model—whereby enterprises define technical problems, NTTCs publicize them, and research institutions compete to solve them—should be institutionalized to ensure demand relevance.
Third, cross-regional collaborative R&D and technology demonstration projects should be proactively designed and funded. Leveraging the existing spatial network of NTTCs, central science and technology authorities should coordinate joint green technology programs spanning multiple administrative regions. Successful cross-regional collaborations that generate measurable spillover benefits should be jointly rewarded, thereby incentivizing the circulation of knowledge, talent, and capital across jurisdictions.
3.2.2. Strengthening Intellectual Property Protection and Commercialization
Robust intellectual property protection is a precondition for both the creation and diffusion of green technologies. Policy interventions should aim to construct a full-chain, stringent, and efficient IP service ecosystem centered on NTTCs.
First, rapid collaborative protection mechanisms should be extended to major NTTC host cities. This involves establishing China (Local) Intellectual Property Protection Centers or fast-track rights enforcement stations equipped with dedicated green technology patent examination, confirmation, and enforcement green channels. Administrative guidance and model compliance protocols for trade secret protection—the most frequently litigated IP category in technology transfer—should be developed and disseminated.
Second, market-oriented IP exploitation models should be piloted and scaled. NTTCs should be encouraged to house or formally affiliate with specialized IP operation entities offering high-value services such as patent portfolio valuation, pledge financing, insurance, and securitization. A license of right regime for green technology patents should be piloted: patent holders declare willingness to license under predetermined, reasonable terms, and license seekers obtain automatic, non-exclusive rights upon notification and fee payment. Such a regime significantly reduces transaction costs and legal uncertainty for SME adopters while preserving patentees’ fundamental economic interests.
Third, professional capacity building in IP management should be integrated into the compulsory certification curriculum for technology transfer practitioners. Regular, customized training programs on IP risk prevention and compliance should be delivered to NTTC staff and affiliated enterprises. Concurrently, NTTC platforms should be mobilized for public IP literacy campaigns to foster societal respect for IP rights and deter infringement.
3.2.3. Operationalizing Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Effects
To fully realize the environmental co-benefits of NTTCs, their functional orientation should evolve from passive technology exchange venues to proactive, integrated green solution hubs.
First, the weight of green technology transfer outcomes in NTTC performance evaluation and fiscal appropriation systems should be substantially increased. NTTCs should be incentivized and enabled to co-establish, with private capital, specialized green technology transfer sub-funds focused on commercially promising innovations in energy efficiency, pollution control, ecological restoration, and circular economy. These funds should operate on market principles, with government providing catalytic seed capital and risk-sharing guarantees.
Second, integrated application and systemic demonstration projects should be systematically developed. NTTCs should be mandated and resourced to partner with municipal governments and industrial park authorities in co-designing “technology transfer + industrial deployment + standard codification” green demonstration zones or near-zero carbon industrial parks. Such real-world testbeds serve to validate technical reliability, economic viability, and environmental additionality, generating replicable system solutions that reduce perceived adoption risks and information asymmetries for subsequent large-scale diffusion.
Third, NTTC service portfolios should be strategically aligned with the evolving environmental regulatory landscape. As China transitions from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control, NTTCs should position themselves as solution architects for carbon-constrained incumbents. Bundled service packages encompassing carbon auditing, technology option assessment, financing arrangement, and policy compliance should be delivered to energy-intensive enterprises. Concurrently, NTTCs should actively assist green technology adopters in accessing fiscal incentives—green tax credits, preferential green credit, and green bond issuance—thereby closing the loop between regulatory pressure, technology supply, financial facilitation, and policy incentives.
3.3. Empowering Actors and Enriching the Innovation Ecosystem
The sustainability of NTTC-induced green innovation ultimately depends on the endogenous capabilities and motivations of decentralized market actors, as well as the institutional thickness of the regional innovation environment. Policy interventions should therefore target both demand-side agents and supply-side intermediaries.
3.3.1. Activating Enterprises as Lead Innovators, Especially SMEs
Enterprises are the ultimate implementers and value appropriators of green innovations. For small and medium-sized enterprises, which face disproportionate information, financial, and technical barriers, NTTC platforms should serve as low-threshold entry points. A national technology innovation voucher scheme, administered through NTTCs, should be scaled to subsidize SME purchases of professional services including technology assessment, pilot-scale testing, and integration engineering. NTTCs should organize dedicated technology matchmaking events, open laboratory days, and basic green technology advisory clinics targeting SME participation.
Simultaneously, the formation and scaling of green technology-intensive high-growth firms should be nurtured. NTTCs should be incentivized to co-establish and share pilot manufacturing facilities and industrial innovation centers with incumbent industry leaders. Lead firms should be encouraged to publish supply chain greening standards and technology procurement demands on NTTC platforms, thereby inducing green technology adoption cascades throughout upstream and downstream value chains. Such cluster-based innovation models generate collective efficiency gains beyond what isolated firm-level interventions can achieve.
3.3.2. Professionalizing Technology Transfer Intermediaries
The institutional capacity of NTTCs themselves is a binding constraint on policy effectiveness. A comprehensive professionalization agenda should be pursued.
First, governance and management reforms should be deepened. Diversified institutional models—including director responsibility under council governance and enterprise-oriented management of public service units—should be piloted and evaluated. Performance-linked, market-competitive compensation systems should be introduced to attract and retain compound talent possessing integrated competencies in technology, business, finance, and law.
Second, national occupational standards and competency certification systems for the technology transfer profession should be developed. Service quality specifications covering the full transaction cycle—technology assessment, deal brokerage, contract negotiation, post-deal monitoring, and benefit allocation—should be promulgated. A unified national certification examination for senior technology transfer practitioners should be implemented, supplemented by regular vocational skills competitions. These institutional innovations will enhance service standardization, reduce information asymmetry between principals and intermediaries, and elevate the profession’s social legitimacy.
3.3.3. Cultivating a Social Climate Conducive to Green Innovation
The diffusion of green innovations is not solely a technical or economic process but is deeply embedded in social norms and collective behavioral dispositions. NTTCs, by virtue of their public platform status, are well-positioned to contribute to cultural cultivation.
NTTCs should be mandated to allocate resources for public science communication and green innovation education. Regularly scheduled open days, public lectures, and achievement exhibitions should be organized to vividly demonstrate the co-benefits of green technologies—improved environmental quality, enhanced living standards, and new employment opportunities. Green innovation culture should be systematically integrated into urban civility campaigns and national curriculum frameworks at appropriate levels.
Critically, cultural cultivation must be reinforced by economic incentives. NTTCs should be authorized to certify and promote green innovative products and services to both public and private procurers. Mandatory green procurement targets for all levels of government and state-owned enterprises should be established and enforced, with procurement of NTTC-certified green solutions incorporated into institutional performance evaluations. Public procurement, by creating large-scale, stable, and visible initial demand, functions as a powerful demonstration mechanism that accelerates the formation of mass consumer markets for green innovations.
3.4. Spatial Optimization and Regional Synergy
The spatial econometric evidence confirms that NTTC effects are not contained within host cities but spill over to geographically proximate and economically connected jurisdictions. This finding calls for a paradigm shift from viewing NTTCs as isolated local interventions to strategically orchestrating them as nodes in a nationally integrated, functionally differentiated network.
3.4.1. Positioning Flagship Centers as Global Innovation Hubs
A subset of NTTCs—located in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other globally connected innovation metropolises—should be designated and resourced as national flagship centers with strategic mandates extending beyond domestic technology transfer. These flagships should be positioned to: (a) forge international green technology transfer partnerships and joint ventures; (b) attract foreign R&D centers and multinational corporate innovation labs to co-locate; and (c) host globally visible green technology trade fairs, investment forums, and policy dialogues. They should serve as primary gateways for inward transfer of frontier green technologies and outward diffusion of green solutions originating from China, thereby contributing Chinese institutional and technological perspectives to global green technology governance architecture.
3.4.2. Orchestrating Regional Echelon Development
The spatial spillover patterns identified in this study suggest that purposeful alignment of NTTC distribution with national regional development strategies—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, Yangtze River Delta integration, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle—can yield systemic synergy gains.
Regional NTTC innovation alliances should be established, formalized through joint committees and shared digital resource platforms. These alliances should collaboratively produce annual regional industrial technology demand white papers and jointly organize cross-jurisdictional, supply chain-coordinated technology matchmaking events. Functional differentiation along the innovation value chain should be consciously cultivated: R&D-intensive activities concentrated in central innovation hubs, pilot production and validation in secondary nodal cities, and volume manufacturing in specialized industrial hinterlands. Such a gradient division model transforms passive spatial spillovers into organized, bidirectional knowledge flows and reinforces regional innovation system coherence.
3.4.3. Transcending Geographic Constraints Through Digitalization
Physical proximity, while valuable, is not an absolute prerequisite for effective technology transfer in the digital age. A parallel, virtual technology transfer infrastructure—a digital twin NTTC network—should be rapidly developed and integrated with physical platforms. Utilizing 5G connectivity, virtual and augmented reality environments, and digital twin simulations, remote yet immersive technology demonstrations, equipment diagnostics, and operator training can be delivered at dramatically reduced spatial and temporal costs.
This digital infrastructure is particularly consequential for addressing China’s persistent interregional innovation divide. Enterprises in central, western, and northeastern regions, regardless of geographic distance from coastal NTTCs, can access high-quality technology information, expert consultation, and virtual trial services almost on par with their eastern counterparts. Deliberate policy investment in digital technology transfer infrastructure thus constitutes a powerful instrument for promoting inclusive green innovation diffusion and mitigating spatial inequality in technological capabilities.
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