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Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth

Received: 22 February 2021     Accepted: 4 March 2021     Published: 26 March 2021
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Abstract

During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.

Published in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (Volume 6, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
Page(s) 23-30
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Malaria Dynamics, Climate, HIV, Population Size

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    Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. (2021). Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 6(1), 23-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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    ACS Style

    Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic; Timothy Peter Moulton; Mauricio Lima; Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol. Evol. Biol. 2021, 6(1), 23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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    AMA Style

    Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Timothy Peter Moulton, Mauricio Lima, Fabian Jaksic. Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth. Ecol Evol Biol. 2021;6(1):23-30. doi: 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15

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  • @article{10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15,
      author = {Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic and Timothy Peter Moulton and Mauricio Lima and Fabian Jaksic},
      title = {Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth},
      journal = {Ecology and Evolutionary Biology},
      volume = {6},
      number = {1},
      pages = {23-30},
      doi = {10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.eeb.20210601.15},
      abstract = {During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth
    AU  - Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic
    AU  - Timothy Peter Moulton
    AU  - Mauricio Lima
    AU  - Fabian Jaksic
    Y1  - 2021/03/26
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    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
    DO  - 10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
    T2  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
    JF  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
    JO  - Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
    SP  - 23
    EP  - 30
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-3762
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.eeb.20210601.15
    AB  - During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the increase of the malaria incidence rate in tea plantations in the Kericho district in Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics suggested that others variables could be involved in the increase of the malaria burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists have developed a simple framework which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependency) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behavior of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by its previous population sizes. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. In this study we re-explore the dynamics of the malaria incidence rate in Kericho tea plantations taking into account the HIV incidence rate, rural population size, temperature and rainfall. We found that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class. We found that there was weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis and that rural population size and the HIV incidence could interact to positively force malaria models parameters explaining the positive malaria trend observed at Kericho tea plantations in Kenya from 1979 to 2002.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile

  • Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of the Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  • Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile

  • Departament of Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University Catholic of Chile, Santiago, Chile

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