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Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid

Received: 13 November 2015     Accepted: 25 November 2015     Published: 14 December 2015
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Abstract

This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 3, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
Page(s) 257-262
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Forecasting, Holt-Winters Method, Effect of Eid, Mean Square Error

References
[1] Bell, W. R. and S. C. Hillmer. (2003). Modeling Time Series with Calender Variation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, pp. 526-534.
[2] Hillier, F. S. and G. J. Lieberman. (2001). Introduction to Operations Research, 7th Ed. McGraw-Hill Higher Education. New York.
[3] Jin, L. L. and S. L. Tian. (2003). Modeling Lunar Calender Holiday Effect in Taiwan. Taiwan Economics Policy and Forecast, 33, pp 1-37.
[4] Hyndman, R. J., A. B. Koehler, J. K Ord, and R. D. Snyder. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing-The State Approach. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
[5] Markidakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright, and V. E. McGee. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rdEd. Jhon Wiley & Sons. New York.
[6] Monsell, B. C. (2007). Issues in Modeling and Adjusting Calender Effects in Economics Time Series. Paper presented at the ICES-III, June 18-21, 2007, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
[7] Montgomery, D. C., C. L. Jenning, and M. Kulahci. (2008). Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Wiley-Interscience. New Jersey.
[8] Rasmussen, R. (2003). On Time Series Data and Optimal Parameters. Omega, 32, pp. 111-120.
[9] Shuja’, N., M. A. Lazim, and Y. B. Wah. (2007). Moving Holiday Effects Adjustment for Malaysian Economic Time Series. Journal of Department of Statistics Malaysia, 1, pp. 35-50.
[10] Zhang, X., C. H. McLaren, and C. C. S. Leung. (2003). An Easter Proximity Effect: Modeling and Adjusment. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 43, pp. 269-280.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Bustami, Hadi Irawansyah, M. D. H. Gamal. (2015). Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 3(6), 257-262. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15

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    ACS Style

    Bustami; Hadi Irawansyah; M. D. H. Gamal. Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2015, 3(6), 257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15

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    AMA Style

    Bustami, Hadi Irawansyah, M. D. H. Gamal. Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2015;3(6):257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15,
      author = {Bustami and Hadi Irawansyah and M. D. H. Gamal},
      title = {Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid},
      journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
      volume = {3},
      number = {6},
      pages = {257-262},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20150306.15},
      abstract = {This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.},
     year = {2015}
    }
    

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    T1  - Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid
    AU  - Bustami
    AU  - Hadi Irawansyah
    AU  - M. D. H. Gamal
    Y1  - 2015/12/14
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
    T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
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    EP  - 262
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2376-9513
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
    AB  - This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.
    VL  - 3
    IS  - 6
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia

  • Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia

  • Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia

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