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32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa

Received: 8 May 2021     Accepted: 25 May 2021     Published: 4 June 2021
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Abstract

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with country as the random factor and status of COVID-19 patient as the fixed factor. Under country, Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana were randomly selected as the three levels from the seventeen West African countries while under status of COVID-19 patient, recovery, death and active cases were the three fixed levels used. The data for the study were collected based on the monthly recorded number of the various COVID-19 cases (i.e. recovery cases, death cases and active cases out of the total confirmed cases) for the period from February to September, 2020. The data were retrieved from the reports on COVID-19 given by the respective country’s health authorities and published on their various websites. In effect, a mixed effect model was derived through formulation processes for the prediction of the various COVID-19 cases across West Africa. Also, different residual analyses were conducted for the model adequacy checking and it proved that the model was adequate in the estimation of the various COVID-19 cases in the West African Sub-region. This therefore makes it the first time experimental design and analysis has successfully been used for a study of this nature on the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa.

Published in Mathematical Modelling and Applications (Volume 6, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11
Page(s) 17-28
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19, Experimental Design, 32 Factorial Design, Mixed Effect Model, Random Factor, Fixed Factor, Residual

References
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[2] WHO (2020, February). COVID-19: Situation Reports in 2020. WHO. (www.who.int/situation-reports).
[3] WHO (2020, March 8). Knowing the Risk for COVID-19; Media Statement. WHO. (www.who.int/news>detail>08-03-2020).
[4] WHO. (2020). Coronavirus. WHO. (www.who.int/health-topics).
[5] WHO. (2020, March 26). Origin of SARS-COV-2. Google.com. (apps.who.int>bitstreams>retrieve).
[6] Sydney Jennings (2020, September 30). COVID-19 Update: US and Global Cases, Deaths and Recoveries as of September 30, 2020. Patient Care.
[7] Wikipedia. (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019. Wikipedia. (en.m.wikipedia.org).
[8] Shabir Ahmad Lone and Aijaz Ahmad. (2020, June 15). COVID-19 Pandemic- an African Persspective. 9 (1). pp 1300-1308. Emerging Microbes and Infections. doi: 10. 1080/22221751. 2020. 177513. (www.tandfoline.com).
[9] WHO. (2020, September 30). Coronavirus-Africa: WHO COVID-19 Africa Update. Africanews. (www.africanews.com).
[10] WHO. (2020, March 2). COVID-19 Pandemic in Senegal. Wikipedia. (www.en.m.wikipedia.org).
[11] UNFPA (2020, September 30). COVID-19 Situation Report Number 8 for West and Central Africa. UNFPA. (www.unfpa.org.>resources>covid-19).
[12] Anwar Zeb, Ebraheem Alzahrani, Vedat Suat Erturk and Gul Zaman. (2020, June 29). Mathematical Model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Containing Isolation Class. Biomed Research International. Vol. 2020. pp 1-7. (doi.org/10.1155/2020/3452402).
[13] Ning Wang, Yuting Fu, Hu Zhang and Huipeng Shi. (2020, May 22). An Evaluation of Mathematical Models for the Outbreak of COVID-19. Precision Clinical Medicine. 3 (2). pp 85-93. (Google Scholar).
[14] B. Ivorra, M. R. Ferrandez, M. Vela-Perez and A. M. Ramos. (2020, April 30). Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Taking into Account the Undetected Infections. Elsevier Public Health Emergency Collection. 2020(88). pp 1-13. (www.nih.gov/coronavirus).
[15] Yichi Li, Bowen Wang, Ruiyang Peng, Chen Zhou, Yonglong Zhan, Zhuoxun Liu, Xia Jiang and Bin Zhao. (2020). Mathematical Modeling and Epidemic Prediction of COVID-19 and Its Significance to Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures. Ann Infect Dis Epidemiol. 5 (1): 1052. (Remedy Publications).
[16] Dennis J. Sweeney. (2020, October 20). Statistics. UK. Science Britannica. (www.britannica.com/science).
[17] Christ Spatz. (2005). Basic Statistics: Tales of Distribution. (8th edition). USA. Wadsworth Thomson Learning Inc. pp 251-281.
[18] Douglas C. Montgomery (2001). Design and Analysis of Experiments. (5th edition). New York, USA. John Wiley and Sons Inc. pp 170.
[19] Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. (2020. October 15). COVID-19 Situation Report. NCDC. (covid-19.ncdc.gov.ng).
[20] Ghana Health Service. (2020, October 27). COVID-19: Ghana’s Outbreak Management Updates. Ghana Health Service. (www.ghanahealthservices.org).
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Richard Ayamah, Samuel Kwarteng, Awudu Obeng, Patrick Kwame Babah. (2021). 32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. Mathematical Modelling and Applications, 6(2), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11

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    ACS Style

    Richard Ayamah; Samuel Kwarteng; Awudu Obeng; Patrick Kwame Babah. 32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. Math. Model. Appl. 2021, 6(2), 17-28. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11

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    AMA Style

    Richard Ayamah, Samuel Kwarteng, Awudu Obeng, Patrick Kwame Babah. 32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. Math Model Appl. 2021;6(2):17-28. doi: 10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11,
      author = {Richard Ayamah and Samuel Kwarteng and Awudu Obeng and Patrick Kwame Babah},
      title = {32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa},
      journal = {Mathematical Modelling and Applications},
      volume = {6},
      number = {2},
      pages = {17-28},
      doi = {10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mma.20210602.11},
      abstract = {The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with country as the random factor and status of COVID-19 patient as the fixed factor. Under country, Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana were randomly selected as the three levels from the seventeen West African countries while under status of COVID-19 patient, recovery, death and active cases were the three fixed levels used. The data for the study were collected based on the monthly recorded number of the various COVID-19 cases (i.e. recovery cases, death cases and active cases out of the total confirmed cases) for the period from February to September, 2020. The data were retrieved from the reports on COVID-19 given by the respective country’s health authorities and published on their various websites. In effect, a mixed effect model was derived through formulation processes for the prediction of the various COVID-19 cases across West Africa. Also, different residual analyses were conducted for the model adequacy checking and it proved that the model was adequate in the estimation of the various COVID-19 cases in the West African Sub-region. This therefore makes it the first time experimental design and analysis has successfully been used for a study of this nature on the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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    T1  - 32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa
    AU  - Richard Ayamah
    AU  - Samuel Kwarteng
    AU  - Awudu Obeng
    AU  - Patrick Kwame Babah
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11
    T2  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
    JF  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
    JO  - Mathematical Modelling and Applications
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    EP  - 28
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-1794
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mma.20210602.11
    AB  - The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with country as the random factor and status of COVID-19 patient as the fixed factor. Under country, Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana were randomly selected as the three levels from the seventeen West African countries while under status of COVID-19 patient, recovery, death and active cases were the three fixed levels used. The data for the study were collected based on the monthly recorded number of the various COVID-19 cases (i.e. recovery cases, death cases and active cases out of the total confirmed cases) for the period from February to September, 2020. The data were retrieved from the reports on COVID-19 given by the respective country’s health authorities and published on their various websites. In effect, a mixed effect model was derived through formulation processes for the prediction of the various COVID-19 cases across West Africa. Also, different residual analyses were conducted for the model adequacy checking and it proved that the model was adequate in the estimation of the various COVID-19 cases in the West African Sub-region. This therefore makes it the first time experimental design and analysis has successfully been used for a study of this nature on the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Mathematics/ICT Department, St. Joseph’s College of Education, Bechem, Ghana

  • Mathematics/ICT Department, St. Joseph’s College of Education, Bechem, Ghana

  • Mathematics/ICT Department, Wesley College of Education, Kumasi, Ghana

  • Mathematics/ICT Department, Ada College of Education, Ada, Ghana

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