| Peer-Reviewed

Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context

Received: 17 July 2021     Accepted: 6 August 2021     Published: 4 September 2021
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Nowadays and especially after the revolution and the troubles that Tunisia has witnessed, the investment phenomenon has been affected and remains inefficient. Indeed this inefficiency is due to an excessive investment behavior. However, this issue has been discussed under the influence of behavioral finance. We explore that the manager’s overconfidence can explain his behavior when it comes to business investment. The objective of this investigation is to examine the effect of managers' personal characteristics, namely overconfidence, on the investment decision of 45 Tunisian listed companies from 2009 to 2018. We construct a proxy made up of both the remuneration of the directors and his decision-making power to measure the excess of managerial confidence and we use the Richardson model to measure the volume of investment. Our empirical results give the following conclusion: A positive and significant relationship between the manager’s overconfidence and the investment volume of listed Tunisian companies.

Published in International Journal of Finance and Banking Research (Volume 7, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11
Page(s) 82-94
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Manager Skill, Overconfidence, Free Cash-Flow, Investment Cost, Decision-making

References
[1] Baker, M., Ruback, R. S., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Behavioral corporate finance. In Handbook of empirical corporate finance (pp. 145-186). Elsevier.
[2] Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 43 (4), 843-881.
[3] Heaton, J. B. (2005). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. In Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II (pp. 667-684). Princeton University Press.
[4] Malmendier, U., Tate, G., & Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early-life experiences: the effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. The Journal of finance, 66 (5), 1687-1733.
[5] Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Journal of financial Economics, 89 (1), 20-43.
[6] Cordeiro, L. (2009). Managerial Overconfidence and Dividend Policy (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 1343805). Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1343805.
[7] Deshmukh, S., Goel, A. M. and al. (2013). CEO overconfidence and dividend policy, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22 (3), 440-463.
[8] Jensen, M. C. and Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure, Journal of Financial Economics, 3 (4), 305- 360.
[9] Myers, S. C. and Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have, Journal of Financial Economics, 13 (2), 187-221.
[10] Fazzari F., Hubbard R., Petersen B. [1988], "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
[11] Hubbard and Peterson (2000), “Capital Market imperfections and investment”, Journal of Economic Literature, 36 (3), pp. 193-225.
[12] Kaplan, S. N., & Zingales, L. (1997). Do investment-cash flow sensitivities provide useful measures of financing constraints?. The quarterly journal of economics, 112 (1), 169-215.
[13] Kaplan, S. N., & Zingales, L. (2000). Investment-cash flow sensitivities are not valid measures of financing constraints. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115 (2), 707-712.
[14] Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management science, 39 (1), 17-31.
[15] Shefrin, H. (2001). Behavioral corporate finance. Journal of applied corporate finance, 14 (3), 113-126.
[16] Goel, A. M. and Thakor, A. V. (2000). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance, 63 (6), 2737-2784.
[17] Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2001). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Mimeo, Havard University.
[18] Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy.
[19] Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2009). Superstar ceos. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124 (4), 1593-1638.
[20] Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101 (3), 695-712.
[21] Lin, Y. H., Hu, S. Y., & Chen, M. S. (2005). Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13 (5), 523-546.
[22] Huang, W., Jiang, F., Liu, Z., & Zhang, M. (2011). Agency cost, top executives' overconfidence, and investment-cash flow sensitivity—Evidence from listed companies in China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 19 (3), 261-277.
[23] Glaser, M., & Schmitz, P. (2007). Privatanleger am Optionsscheinmarkt. Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft, 19 (3), 214-230.
[24] Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005a). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European financial management, 11 (5), 649-659.
[25] Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005b). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The journal of finance, 60 (6), 2661-2700.
[26] Moez, E. G., & Amina, Z. (2018). Overinvestment of free cash flow and manager’s overconfidence. International Business Research, 11 (3), 48-57.
[27] Camerer, C., & Lovallo, D. (1999). Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. American economic review, 89 (1), 306-318.
[28] McConnell, J. J., & Muscarella, C. J. (1985). Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm. Journal of financial economics, 14 (3), 399-422.
[29] Byrd, J., Parrino, R., & Pritsch, G. (1998). Stockholder–manager conflicts and firm value. Financial Analysts Journal, 54 (3), 14-30.
[30] Narayanan, M. (1985). Managerial incentives for short-term results. The Journal of Finance, 40 (5), 1469-1484.
[31] Thurow, L. (1992). Head to head: The coming economic battle among Japan. Europe and America (NY: Warner, 1992).
[32] Porter, M. E. (1992). Capital disadvantage: America's failing capital investment system. Harvard business review, 70 (5), 65-82.
[33] Larwood, L., & Whittaker, W. (1977). Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning. Journal of applied psychology, 62 (2), 194.
[34] Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?. Acta psychologica, 47 (2), 143-148.
[35] Alicke, M. D. (1985). Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. Journal of personality and social psychology, 49 (6), 1621.
[36] Kidd, J. B. (1970). The utilization of subjective probabilities in production planning. Acta psychologica, 34, 338-347.
[37] Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39 (5), 806.
[38] March, J. G., & Shapira, Z. (1987). Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management science, 33 (11), 1404-1418.
[39] Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of personality and social psychology, 32 (2), 311.
[40] Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of personality and social psychology, 68 (5), 804.
[41] Roll, R. (1986). The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. Journal of business, 197-216.
[42] Hovakimian, A., & Hovakimian, G. (2009). Cash flow sensitivity of investment. European Financial Management, 15 (1), 47-65.
[43] Campbell, C., Johnson, S., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. (2009). CEO confidence and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101 (3), 695-712.
[44] Barros, L., & Silveira, A. (2008). Overconfidence, Managerial Optimism, and the Determinants of Capital Structure. Brazilian Review of Finance, 6 (3), 293-335.
[45] Longjie, X., & Anfeng, Z. (2017). The impact of managers overconfidence on corporate investment. International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, 7 (2), 109-114.
[46] Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2003). Overconfidence, investment policy, and executive stock options. Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Paper, 15 (02).
[47] Malmendier, U., Tate, G., & Yan, J. (2007). Corporate financial policies with overconfident managers.
[48] Brown, R., & Sarma, N. (2007). CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions. Journal of Economics and business, 59 (5), 358-379.
[49] Doukas, J. A., & Petmezas, D. (2007). Acquisitions, overconfident managers and self-attribution bias. European Financial Management, 13 (3), 531-577.
[50] Jenter, D. (2005). Market timing and managerial portfolio decisions. The Journal of Finance, 60 (4), 1903-1949.
[51] Jin, L., & Kothari, S. P. (2008). Effect of personal taxes on managers’ decisions to sell their stock. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 46 (1), 23-46.
[52] Richardson, S. (2006). Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of accounting studies, 11 (2-3), 159-189.
[53] Anderson, T. W., & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of econometrics, 18 (1), 47-82.
[54] Sevestre, P., & Trognon, A. (1996). Dynamic linear models. In The Econometrics of Panel Data (pp. 120-144). Springer, Dordrecht.
[55] Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87 (1), 115-143.
[56] Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58 (2), 277-297.
[57] Hergli, S., & Teulon, F. (2013). Déterminants de la structure du capital: le cas tunisien. Gestion 2000, 30 (5), 49-73.
[58] Ficher and Choi, I. (2002), ìCombination Unit Root Tests for Cross-Sectionally Correlated Panelsî, Mimeo, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
[59] Chen, C., Chen, Y., Hsu, P. H., & Podolski, E. J. (2016). Be nice to your innovators: Employee treatment and corporate innovation performance. Journal of corporate finance, 39, 78-98.
[60] Daniel, K. D., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2001). Overconfidence, arbitrage, and equilibrium asset pricing. The Journal of Finance, 56 (3), 921-965.
[61] Acker, D., & Duck, N. W. (2008). Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 37 (5), 1815-1824.
[62] Fairchild, L., & Li, J. (2005). Director quality and firm performance. Financial Review, 40 (2), 257-279.
[63] Hackbarth, D. (2002, December). Managerial optimism, overconfidence, and capital structure decisions. In European Finance Association Annual Meeting, (Aug, 2004), Maasticht, The Netherlands.
[64] Hackbarth, D. (2004). Determinants of corporate borrowing: A behavioral perspective. Journal of Corporate Finance, 15 (4), 389-411.
[65] Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2008). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. The Journal of Finance, 63 (6), 2737-2784.
[66] Ye, B., & Yuan, J. (2008). Firm value, managerial confidence, and investments: The case of China. Journal of Leadership studies, 2 (3), 26-36.
[67] Grundy, B. D., & Li, H. (2010). Investor sentiment, executive compensation, and corporate investment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34 (10), 2439-2449.
[68] Chen, I. J., & Lin, S. H. (2012). Will managerial optimism affect the investment efficiency of a firm?. Procedia Economics and Finance, 2, 73-80.
[69] Chen, H. J., & Lin, S. H. (2013). Managerial optimism, investment efficiency, and firm valuation. Multinational Finance Journal, 17 (3/4), 295-340.
[70] Mohamed, E. B., Fairchild, R., & Bouri, A. (2014). Investment cash flow sensitivity under managerial optimism: New evidence from NYSE panel data firms. Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science, 19 (36), 11-18.
[71] Wang, Y., Chen, C. R., Chen, L., & Huang, Y. S. (2016). Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 38, 54-69.
[72] Kramer, L. A., & Liao, C. M. (2012, May). The Cost of False Bravado: Management Overconfidence and its Impact on Analysts' Views. In North American finance conference.
[73] Ahmed, A. S., & Duellman, S. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of accounting research, 51 (1), 1-30.
[74] Hribar, P., & Yang, H. (2016). CEO overconfidence and management forecasting. Contemporary accounting research, 33 (1), 204-227.
[75] Chen, H. K., Chen, Y. S., Huang, C. W., & Wang, Y. (2009). Managerial responses to initial market reactions on share repurchases. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 12 (03), 455-474.
[76] Lu, W., & Liu, H. (2016, June). The empirical study on the relation between managerial overconfidence and over-investment. In 2016 13th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM) (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
[77] Tangjitprom, N. (2015). Over-investment and free cash flow: Evidence from Thailand. In International Conference on Business, Economics and Management (ICBEM’15) April (pp. 9-10).
[78] Guariglia, A., & Yang, J. (2016). A balancing act: managing financial constraints and agency costs to minimize investment inefficiency in the Chinese market. Journal of Corporate Finance, 36, 111-130.
[79] Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American economic review, 76 (2), 323-329.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Halim Smii, Mondher Kouki, Hayet i Soltan. (2021). Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context. International Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 7(4), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Halim Smii; Mondher Kouki; Hayet i Soltan. Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context. Int. J. Finance Bank. Res. 2021, 7(4), 82-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Halim Smii, Mondher Kouki, Hayet i Soltan. Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context. Int J Finance Bank Res. 2021;7(4):82-94. doi: 10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11,
      author = {Halim Smii and Mondher Kouki and Hayet i Soltan},
      title = {Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context},
      journal = {International Journal of Finance and Banking Research},
      volume = {7},
      number = {4},
      pages = {82-94},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijfbr.20210704.11},
      abstract = {Nowadays and especially after the revolution and the troubles that Tunisia has witnessed, the investment phenomenon has been affected and remains inefficient. Indeed this inefficiency is due to an excessive investment behavior. However, this issue has been discussed under the influence of behavioral finance. We explore that the manager’s overconfidence can explain his behavior when it comes to business investment. The objective of this investigation is to examine the effect of managers' personal characteristics, namely overconfidence, on the investment decision of 45 Tunisian listed companies from 2009 to 2018. We construct a proxy made up of both the remuneration of the directors and his decision-making power to measure the excess of managerial confidence and we use the Richardson model to measure the volume of investment. Our empirical results give the following conclusion: A positive and significant relationship between the manager’s overconfidence and the investment volume of listed Tunisian companies.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Managerial Overconfidence and Investment Decision: Empirical Validation in the Tunisian Context
    AU  - Halim Smii
    AU  - Mondher Kouki
    AU  - Hayet i Soltan
    Y1  - 2021/09/04
    PY  - 2021
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11
    T2  - International Journal of Finance and Banking Research
    JF  - International Journal of Finance and Banking Research
    JO  - International Journal of Finance and Banking Research
    SP  - 82
    EP  - 94
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2472-2278
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210704.11
    AB  - Nowadays and especially after the revolution and the troubles that Tunisia has witnessed, the investment phenomenon has been affected and remains inefficient. Indeed this inefficiency is due to an excessive investment behavior. However, this issue has been discussed under the influence of behavioral finance. We explore that the manager’s overconfidence can explain his behavior when it comes to business investment. The objective of this investigation is to examine the effect of managers' personal characteristics, namely overconfidence, on the investment decision of 45 Tunisian listed companies from 2009 to 2018. We construct a proxy made up of both the remuneration of the directors and his decision-making power to measure the excess of managerial confidence and we use the Richardson model to measure the volume of investment. Our empirical results give the following conclusion: A positive and significant relationship between the manager’s overconfidence and the investment volume of listed Tunisian companies.
    VL  - 7
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia

  • Faculty of Management and Economics Sciences of Tunis, Tunis-El Manar, Tunisia

  • Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, Department of Economic and Management Laboratory (LEG), University of Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia

  • Sections