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Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia

Received: 5 February 2020     Accepted: 9 March 2020     Published: 29 June 2020
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Abstract

Wheat is among important cereal crops to ensuring food and nutrition security in developing countries like Ethiopia. The demand for wheat is projected as significantly increases mainly due to a rapidly population growth in the countries. Globally, wheat yield must grow at least by 1.6%. Whereas, in Ethiopia, the yield must grow from the current level 4.6 million tons to 10 million tons. This paper hence, presents the analysis of wheat yield and the underlying causes of its variability among farmers across major wheat growing areas of the country. Data was used from the farm-household survey conducted in 2014/15 by EIAR in collaboration with CIMMYT. Supplementary secondary data on wheat area, production and consumption, and available wheat varieties were used from CSA and MoARD. Data were analyzed using various techniques (including descriptive, inferential statistics and regression analysis). One way ANOVA was used to analyze the yield variability; whereas Weighted Least Square method was applied to identify the underlying causes for the variability of wheat yield among farmers. The result indicates that the average wheat production level per hectare (2.7 tons/ha) has been on the increase with inter annual variability, but the yield level is very low as compared to that of the research station (6-7 tons/ha) and the estimated average potential (5 tons/ha) in highland areas of the country. The yield gap analysis shows that 61%, 55% and 46% of wheat yield gap existed when the national average yield was compared with that of the actual yield at research station, farmers’ plot and potential yield at highland part of the country, respectively. The empirical analysis found there is statistically significant level of yield variability among wheat growers. The findings of the study revealed that use of improved technologies and production inputs, household assets, support services, and agro-ecologies were the primary factors that cause wheat yield variation in Ethiopia. It is recommended that site-specific wheat production management, technology requirement map, proper institutional support services and sustainable natural resource management following inter and intra-farm/plot variability.

Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 5, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11
Page(s) 89-98
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Wheat, Yield Gap, Yield Variability, Wheat Growing Areas, Ethiopia

References
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[7] X. Diao, "Economic Importance of Agriculture for Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction: The Case Study of Ethiopia. IFPRI, Global Forum on Agriculture 29-30 November 2010 Policies for Agricultural Development, Poverty Reduction and Food Security," IFPRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2010.
[8] S. Rashid, "Staple Food Prices in Ethiopia. Prepared for the COMESA policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, 25-26 January 2010 under the African Agricultural Mar," Maputo, Mozambique, 2010.
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[10] G. Samuel, G. Mekbib and K. Matthias, "The Wheat Sector in Ethiopia: Current Status and Key Challenges for Future Value Chain Development," in C. Borgemeister; J. von Braun; M. Denich; T. Stellmacher; E. Youkhana, ZEF Working Paper Series, 2017.
[11] N. Minot, J. Warner, L. Solomon, K. Leulsegged and R. S. G. Abate, "The Wheat Supply Chain in Ethiopia: Patterns, trends, and policy options." International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, DC, 2015.
[12] M. Fentahun, K. Abebe and Z. Fisseha, Retrospects and prospects of Ethiopian Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: EIAR, ISBN: 9789994466412, 2017.
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[15] Y. Chilot, A. Dawit, N. K. O. Leonard and T. Greg, "Tracking the Diffusion of Crop Varieties Using DNA Fingerprinting," Research Report 112, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2016.
[16] CSA, "Area and Production of Major Crops (Private Peasant Holdings, Meher Season). Agricultural Sample Survey. 2004/05-2017/18 (2006-2010 E. C.). Volume I Report," Central Statistical Agency (CSA), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2004/05-2018.
[17] MoARD, "Crop Variety Registers," Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 1953-2016.
[18] K. Schneider and L. Anderson, "Yield Gap and Productivity Potential in Ethiopian Agriculture: Staple Grains and Pulses," Evans School Policy Analysis and Research (EPAR). EPAR Brief No. 98, 2010.
[19] M. Mann and J. Warner, "Ethiopian Wheat Yield and Yield Gap Estimation: A Small Area Integrated Data Approach," International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2015.
[20] D. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics. 4th Ed., The McGraw−Hill Companies, 2004.
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[22] H. Bekele, H. Verkuiji, W. Mawangi and D. Tanner, "Adaptation of improved wheat technologies in Adaba and Dodola Woredas of the Bale highlands of Ethiopia," CIMMYT/EARO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2000.
[23] H. Zewdie, L. Belaineh, H. Jima and J. Moti, "Supply analysis in wheat industry: contributions of value chain analysis in Ethiopia: Cases from Arsi and East Shewa Zones in Oromia National and Regional State," in Invited paper presented at the 5th In. Conf. AAoAE, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2016.
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    Fisseha Zegeye, Bamlaku Alamirew, Degefa Tolossa. (2020). Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 5(4), 89-98. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11

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    ACS Style

    Fisseha Zegeye; Bamlaku Alamirew; Degefa Tolossa. Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2020, 5(4), 89-98. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11

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    AMA Style

    Fisseha Zegeye, Bamlaku Alamirew, Degefa Tolossa. Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia. Int J Agric Econ. 2020;5(4):89-98. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11,
      author = {Fisseha Zegeye and Bamlaku Alamirew and Degefa Tolossa},
      title = {Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia},
      journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
      volume = {5},
      number = {4},
      pages = {89-98},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20200504.11},
      abstract = {Wheat is among important cereal crops to ensuring food and nutrition security in developing countries like Ethiopia. The demand for wheat is projected as significantly increases mainly due to a rapidly population growth in the countries. Globally, wheat yield must grow at least by 1.6%. Whereas, in Ethiopia, the yield must grow from the current level 4.6 million tons to 10 million tons. This paper hence, presents the analysis of wheat yield and the underlying causes of its variability among farmers across major wheat growing areas of the country. Data was used from the farm-household survey conducted in 2014/15 by EIAR in collaboration with CIMMYT. Supplementary secondary data on wheat area, production and consumption, and available wheat varieties were used from CSA and MoARD. Data were analyzed using various techniques (including descriptive, inferential statistics and regression analysis). One way ANOVA was used to analyze the yield variability; whereas Weighted Least Square method was applied to identify the underlying causes for the variability of wheat yield among farmers. The result indicates that the average wheat production level per hectare (2.7 tons/ha) has been on the increase with inter annual variability, but the yield level is very low as compared to that of the research station (6-7 tons/ha) and the estimated average potential (5 tons/ha) in highland areas of the country. The yield gap analysis shows that 61%, 55% and 46% of wheat yield gap existed when the national average yield was compared with that of the actual yield at research station, farmers’ plot and potential yield at highland part of the country, respectively. The empirical analysis found there is statistically significant level of yield variability among wheat growers. The findings of the study revealed that use of improved technologies and production inputs, household assets, support services, and agro-ecologies were the primary factors that cause wheat yield variation in Ethiopia. It is recommended that site-specific wheat production management, technology requirement map, proper institutional support services and sustainable natural resource management following inter and intra-farm/plot variability.},
     year = {2020}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Analysis of Wheat Yield Gap and Variability in Ethiopia
    AU  - Fisseha Zegeye
    AU  - Bamlaku Alamirew
    AU  - Degefa Tolossa
    Y1  - 2020/06/29
    PY  - 2020
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11
    T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
    SP  - 89
    EP  - 98
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-3843
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20200504.11
    AB  - Wheat is among important cereal crops to ensuring food and nutrition security in developing countries like Ethiopia. The demand for wheat is projected as significantly increases mainly due to a rapidly population growth in the countries. Globally, wheat yield must grow at least by 1.6%. Whereas, in Ethiopia, the yield must grow from the current level 4.6 million tons to 10 million tons. This paper hence, presents the analysis of wheat yield and the underlying causes of its variability among farmers across major wheat growing areas of the country. Data was used from the farm-household survey conducted in 2014/15 by EIAR in collaboration with CIMMYT. Supplementary secondary data on wheat area, production and consumption, and available wheat varieties were used from CSA and MoARD. Data were analyzed using various techniques (including descriptive, inferential statistics and regression analysis). One way ANOVA was used to analyze the yield variability; whereas Weighted Least Square method was applied to identify the underlying causes for the variability of wheat yield among farmers. The result indicates that the average wheat production level per hectare (2.7 tons/ha) has been on the increase with inter annual variability, but the yield level is very low as compared to that of the research station (6-7 tons/ha) and the estimated average potential (5 tons/ha) in highland areas of the country. The yield gap analysis shows that 61%, 55% and 46% of wheat yield gap existed when the national average yield was compared with that of the actual yield at research station, farmers’ plot and potential yield at highland part of the country, respectively. The empirical analysis found there is statistically significant level of yield variability among wheat growers. The findings of the study revealed that use of improved technologies and production inputs, household assets, support services, and agro-ecologies were the primary factors that cause wheat yield variation in Ethiopia. It is recommended that site-specific wheat production management, technology requirement map, proper institutional support services and sustainable natural resource management following inter and intra-farm/plot variability.
    VL  - 5
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and PhD Candidate, Center for Rural Development, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • Center for Rural Development, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • Geography and Development Studies at Center for Rural Development, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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