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Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method

Received: 18 July 2017     Accepted: 31 July 2017     Published: 22 August 2017
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Abstract

In this paper, point estimation approach is used to calculate the statistical moment of a random quantity that is a function of m input random variables. In this work, loads of the proposed network is considered as a random variable. Two special cases of point estimation approach are considered such as 2m and 2m+1 concentration schemes. In 2m concentration scheme, skewness is considered, but in 2m+1 concentration scheme, both skewness and kurtosis are taken into account for probability density function. The proposed model is investigated using P. M. Anderson 9-bus test system. As a result, by changing the value of a random variable that follows a predefined distribution, expected bus voltage magnitude and expected line loading are identified. For the comparison purpose, 2m and 2m+1 scheme was compared with deterministic load flow analysis.

Published in American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems (Volume 6, Issue 5)
DOI 10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11
Page(s) 64-71
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Probabilistic Power Flow, Point Estimation Method, Random Variable, Uncertainty Analysis

References
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Li Bin, Muhammad Shahzad, Qi Bing, Muhammad Raza Zafar, Rabiul Islam, et al. (2017). Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method. American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 6(5), 64-71. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11

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    ACS Style

    Li Bin; Muhammad Shahzad; Qi Bing; Muhammad Raza Zafar; Rabiul Islam, et al. Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method. Am. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2017, 6(5), 64-71. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11

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    AMA Style

    Li Bin, Muhammad Shahzad, Qi Bing, Muhammad Raza Zafar, Rabiul Islam, et al. Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method. Am J Electr Power Energy Syst. 2017;6(5):64-71. doi: 10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11,
      author = {Li Bin and Muhammad Shahzad and Qi Bing and Muhammad Raza Zafar and Rabiul Islam and Muhammad Umair Shoukat},
      title = {Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method},
      journal = {American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems},
      volume = {6},
      number = {5},
      pages = {64-71},
      doi = {10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.epes.20170605.11},
      abstract = {In this paper, point estimation approach is used to calculate the statistical moment of a random quantity that is a function of m input random variables. In this work, loads of the proposed network is considered as a random variable. Two special cases of point estimation approach are considered such as 2m and 2m+1 concentration schemes. In 2m concentration scheme, skewness is considered, but in 2m+1 concentration scheme, both skewness and kurtosis are taken into account for probability density function. The proposed model is investigated using P. M. Anderson 9-bus test system. As a result, by changing the value of a random variable that follows a predefined distribution, expected bus voltage magnitude and expected line loading are identified. For the comparison purpose, 2m and 2m+1 scheme was compared with deterministic load flow analysis.},
     year = {2017}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Probabilistic Power Flow Model to Study Uncertainty in Power System Network Based Upon Point Estimation Method
    AU  - Li Bin
    AU  - Muhammad Shahzad
    AU  - Qi Bing
    AU  - Muhammad Raza Zafar
    AU  - Rabiul Islam
    AU  - Muhammad Umair Shoukat
    Y1  - 2017/08/22
    PY  - 2017
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11
    T2  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
    JF  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
    JO  - American Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
    SP  - 64
    EP  - 71
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2326-9200
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.epes.20170605.11
    AB  - In this paper, point estimation approach is used to calculate the statistical moment of a random quantity that is a function of m input random variables. In this work, loads of the proposed network is considered as a random variable. Two special cases of point estimation approach are considered such as 2m and 2m+1 concentration schemes. In 2m concentration scheme, skewness is considered, but in 2m+1 concentration scheme, both skewness and kurtosis are taken into account for probability density function. The proposed model is investigated using P. M. Anderson 9-bus test system. As a result, by changing the value of a random variable that follows a predefined distribution, expected bus voltage magnitude and expected line loading are identified. For the comparison purpose, 2m and 2m+1 scheme was compared with deterministic load flow analysis.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 5
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing, China

  • School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing, China

  • School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing, China

  • PMU, MEPCO, Multan, Pakistan

  • Sugar & Food Industries Corporation, Dhaka, Bangladesh

  • Department of Electrical Engineering, Government College University Faisalabad Sahiwal Campus, Sahiwal, Pakistan

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