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Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province

Received: 23 August 2018     Accepted: 11 September 2018     Published: 12 October 2018
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Abstract

With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.

Published in American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics (Volume 3, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
Page(s) 18-30
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Henan Province, Data Envelope Analysis, Coordinated, Logistic Prediction

References
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. (2018). Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics, 3(2), 18-30. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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    ACS Style

    Zhao Xiuyan; Zhou Pengchao; Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am. J. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2018, 3(2), 18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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    AMA Style

    Zhao Xiuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province. Am J Environ Resour Econ. 2018;3(2):18-30. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12,
      author = {Zhao Xiuyan and Zhou Pengchao and Yang Yongfang},
      title = {Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province},
      journal = {American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics},
      volume = {3},
      number = {2},
      pages = {18-30},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajere.20180302.12},
      abstract = {With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province
    AU  - Zhao Xiuyan
    AU  - Zhou Pengchao
    AU  - Yang Yongfang
    Y1  - 2018/10/12
    PY  - 2018
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
    T2  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
    JF  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
    JO  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
    SP  - 18
    EP  - 30
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-787X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20180302.12
    AB  - With the rapid development of urbanization in Henan Province, it is of great significance to study the relationship between man and land in regional cities to grasp the quality of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanization. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA), Kernel density analysis, gravity center model and Logistic model are used to analyze the evolution and coordination of urban population growth and land expansion in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2014, and to predict their overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expansion rate in Henan Province is faster than the population growth rate on the whole, the spatial distribution of the two increment is mainly in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core cities, and Anyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravity of urban population and the center of gravity of land are both located in the southeast of Zhengzhou City, and the coordination relationship between them presents the situation of "Enhancement, Stability and Enhancement"; The spatial coordination between urban land expansion and population growth is weak, and the land advance development is the main factor. (3) before 2003, the urban population growth and land expansion kept in sync, The forecasting results show that slowing down the expansion of urban land properly and coordinating the relationship between human and land will be the future direction of urbanization in Henan Province.
    VL  - 3
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China

  • School of Surveying and Urban Spatial Information, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan, China

  • College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, China

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