Trends and Determinants of Road Traffic Accident Human Death in Kembata Tembaro Zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia
Adinew Handiso,
Gizachew Gobebo Mekebo,
Agassa Galdassa
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 5, October 2022
Pages:
85-89
Received:
9 September 2022
Accepted:
19 October 2022
Published:
27 October 2022
DOI:
10.11648/j.sjams.20221005.11
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Views:
Abstract: Globally, annually about 1.35 million people have unnatural deaths and 20 to 50 million people suffer from non-fatal injuries due to road traffic injuries. The road traffic accident contributes to poverty by causing loss of productivity, material damage, injuries, disabilities, grief, and deaths. The aim of this study was to examine trends and identify determinants of road traffic accidents human death in Kembata Tembaro zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia. A retrospective cross-sectional study design was employed. Both primary and secondary data were used. The Count models such as Poisson, Negative Binomial and Conway- Maxwell Poisson regression were applied and based on AIC and BIC, Negative Binomial model found to be best model. A total of 284 road traffic accidents have occurred in Kembata Tembaro zone from 2017 to 2020, which resulted in 169 lives loss and 232 serious and minor injuries. The study found that type of vehicle, collision type, driver error, weather condition, and light condition were significantly associated with expected number of persons to die in road traffic accidents. Overturning (IRR=1.885; 95% CI: 1.544 - 2.165) and right angle (IRR=0.658; 95% CI: 0.298 -0.957) as a collision type, inexperience (IRR=1.454; 95% CI: 1.04 - 2.227) and too fast (IRR=1.789; 95% CI: 1.149 - 2.785) as driver errors, motor cycle (IRR=1.453; 95% CI: 1.095-1.674) as type of vehicle, fog (IRR=1.520; 95% CI: 1.095 - 2.321) and rain (IRR=1.541; 95% CI: 1.045- 2.513) as weather condition, and day light (IRR=0.948; 95% CI: 0.676 - 0.990) as light condition were determinants of expected number of persons to die in road traffic accidents in Kembata Tembaro Zone, SNNPR, Ethiopia. Thus, awareness creation has to be made regularly to all parts of society regarding road traffic accident which results in loss of human lives and damage of property. Traffic police should give special attention to drivers who have no experience of driving, and to those who drive too fast. The drivers should be cautious when the weather condition is rainy and/or fog.
Abstract: Globally, annually about 1.35 million people have unnatural deaths and 20 to 50 million people suffer from non-fatal injuries due to road traffic injuries. The road traffic accident contributes to poverty by causing loss of productivity, material damage, injuries, disabilities, grief, and deaths. The aim of this study was to examine trends and iden...
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Mathematical Modeling and Treatment Impacts of Water Borne Disease Spread
Issue:
Volume 10, Issue 5, October 2022
Pages:
90-97
Received:
19 August 2022
Accepted:
14 September 2022
Published:
11 November 2022
DOI:
10.11648/j.sjams.20221005.12
Downloads:
Views:
Abstract: In this work, the treatment impacts of water borne disease is modeled and analyzed from a mathematical perspective via a deterministic SEIR model. The total human population is partitioned into four sub-classes namely susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals and recovered individuals. The stability theory of non-linear differential equations and the basic reproductive number represents the epidemic indicator which is obtained from the largest eigen value of the next-generation matrix. The model explored invariant region, equilibrium condition, basic reproduction number, and stability analysis. The invariant region was proved to be positive and bounded that confirm the feasible model solution. It is also observed that the water borne disease is free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. In this situation it is found that the disease is controlled whenever the treatment is allowable in the community. The disease is endemic equilibrium and globally asymptotically stable in the invariant region if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the rate of transmission and the rate at which exposed individuals become infectious are the most sensitive parameters. The numeric results have been illustrated through figures for different values of sensitive parameters by use of MATLAB simulation method. The findings indicate that effective treatment is adequate in eradicating and controlling water borne disease.
Abstract: In this work, the treatment impacts of water borne disease is modeled and analyzed from a mathematical perspective via a deterministic SEIR model. The total human population is partitioned into four sub-classes namely susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals and recovered individuals. The stability theory of non-linear dif...
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