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Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning

Received: 26 November 2020    Accepted: 10 December 2020    Published: 22 December 2020
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Abstract

Background: Advent of a novel pandemic requires development of faster medicine discovery protocol compared to traditional approach. Normally these are placebo controlled clinical trials, such trials usually involve high risk and a lot of time and money and repetitive exposure of the patients involved. In this study we gathered all the pathognomonic features of COVID-19 and translated them to homeopathic clinical features by using the known technique of repertorization, using a software. Top 10 ranked remedies were selected for further exploration. A surrogate model was created for simulation based on real patient data available in which all patients received a random combination of ranked repertorized homeopathic medicine. This output was then fed to a Neural Network. The NN learnt by recognizing patterns that mapped to patients’ initial state to the results of remedies administered, fluctuations were averaged out and different patient features were discovered. Thus, enabling the NN to better predict optimum homeopathy remedies than the traditional method stated before. Method: We designed a mathematical model based upon the principles of machine learning and created a virtual clinical trial first of 200 patients and then updated it to 800 in lieu of a real one. The Results of these Surrogate Digital Clinical trial [SDCT] were fed to a neural network. The Neural Network Clinical Learning [NNCL], clearly gave us a list of drugs and a possible genus epidemicus for this covid 19. These results were compared with actual field results to a data of 130 patients of covid like illnesses, covid or pneumonia treated on OPD basic or through tele medicine. Results: The conclusion was reached by comparing the simulated clinical trials, predictions by the NN and findings in the observational studies. Although the model shows reasonable stability, it is presented as a proof of concept, which should be further rigorously studied and tested by other homeopathic practitioners for further optimization if required. In this study merc sol merged prominently as a genus epidemicus. A further change in the remedy in the reference to a possible second or third wave could be predicted by adding some valuable clinical data to the model. Conclusion: This study could resolve many issues faced by homoeopathic practitioners across the globe and could predict a fairly accurate results making us better prepare in the field.

Published in American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine (Volume 8, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13
Page(s) 111-120
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Homoeopathy, Covid19, merc sol, genus epidemicus, Randomized Placebo Control Clinical Trial, Surrogate Digital Clinical Trial [SDTC], Neural Network Clinical Learning [NNCL]

References
[1] Barati, F., Pouresmaieli, M., Ekrami, E. et al. Potential Drugs and Remedies for the Treatment of COVID-19: a Critical Review. Biol Proced Online 22, 15 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12575-020-00129-1.
[2] Government of India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Directorate General of Health Services version IV ClinicalManagementProtocolforCOVID19.pdf.DOI26/06/2020.
[3] Clinical research protocol to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of individualized homeopathic medicine in the treatment and prevention of the COVID-19 epidemic. March 2020. Scientific Coordinator of the Scientific Department of Homeopathy at São Paulo Medical Association.
[4] Nair B. Clinical Trial Designs. Indian Dermatol Online J. 2019; 10 (2): 193-201. doi: 10.4103/idoj.IDOJ_475_18.
[5] Rosenberger WF, Lachin JM. Randomization in Clinical Trials: Theory and Practice. John Wiley & Sons, Inc; 2016.
[6] Moghadas SM, Jaberi-Douraki M. Mathematical Modelling: A Graduate Textbook. 1st edition. John Wiley & Sons; 2018.
[7] Chollet F. Deep Learning with Python. Manning Publications Co; 2018.
[8] Amisha, Malik P, Pathania M, Rathaur VK. Overview of artificial intelligence in medicine. J Family Med Prim Care. 2019; 8 (7): 2328-2331. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_440_19.
[9] Trends in Pharmacological Sciences, August 2019, Vol. 40, No. 8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tips.2019.05.005.
[10] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339780854_Fuzzy_logic_and_its_application_in_homoeopathic_repertory.
[11] CDC. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Symptoms. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Published May 13, 2020. Accessed November 22, 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html.
[12] Coronavirus. Accessed November 22, 2020. https://www.who.int/westernpacific/health-topics/coronavirus.
[13] Check if you or your child has coronavirus (COVID-19) symptoms. nhs.uk. Published June 2, 2020. Accessed November 22, 2020. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/symptoms/.
[14] Hahnemann S, Dudgeon R. Organon of Medicine. 6th ed. B. Jain Publishers; 2019.
[15] Vaishampayan S, Mutreja K, Lambe S, Shah J, Shaikh G. Mercurius solubilis as Genus Epidemicus for the COVID-19 Pandemic. Homeopathy. 2020; 109 (04): 271-272. doi: 10.1055/s-0040-1716336.
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  • APA Style

    Shailendra Vaishampayan, Joshua Joshi, Amruta Vaishampayan, Gulnaz Shaikh. (2020). Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning. American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, 8(6), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13

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    ACS Style

    Shailendra Vaishampayan; Joshua Joshi; Amruta Vaishampayan; Gulnaz Shaikh. Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning. Am. J. Clin. Exp. Med. 2020, 8(6), 111-120. doi: 10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13

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    AMA Style

    Shailendra Vaishampayan, Joshua Joshi, Amruta Vaishampayan, Gulnaz Shaikh. Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning. Am J Clin Exp Med. 2020;8(6):111-120. doi: 10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13,
      author = {Shailendra Vaishampayan and Joshua Joshi and Amruta Vaishampayan and Gulnaz Shaikh},
      title = {Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning},
      journal = {American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine},
      volume = {8},
      number = {6},
      pages = {111-120},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajcem.20200806.13},
      abstract = {Background: Advent of a novel pandemic requires development of faster medicine discovery protocol compared to traditional approach. Normally these are placebo controlled clinical trials, such trials usually involve high risk and a lot of time and money and repetitive exposure of the patients involved. In this study we gathered all the pathognomonic features of COVID-19 and translated them to homeopathic clinical features by using the known technique of repertorization, using a software. Top 10 ranked remedies were selected for further exploration. A surrogate model was created for simulation based on real patient data available in which all patients received a random combination of ranked repertorized homeopathic medicine. This output was then fed to a Neural Network. The NN learnt by recognizing patterns that mapped to patients’ initial state to the results of remedies administered, fluctuations were averaged out and different patient features were discovered. Thus, enabling the NN to better predict optimum homeopathy remedies than the traditional method stated before. Method: We designed a mathematical model based upon the principles of machine learning and created a virtual clinical trial first of 200 patients and then updated it to 800 in lieu of a real one. The Results of these Surrogate Digital Clinical trial [SDCT] were fed to a neural network. The Neural Network Clinical Learning [NNCL], clearly gave us a list of drugs and a possible genus epidemicus for this covid 19. These results were compared with actual field results to a data of 130 patients of covid like illnesses, covid or pneumonia treated on OPD basic or through tele medicine. Results: The conclusion was reached by comparing the simulated clinical trials, predictions by the NN and findings in the observational studies. Although the model shows reasonable stability, it is presented as a proof of concept, which should be further rigorously studied and tested by other homeopathic practitioners for further optimization if required. In this study merc sol merged prominently as a genus epidemicus. A further change in the remedy in the reference to a possible second or third wave could be predicted by adding some valuable clinical data to the model. Conclusion: This study could resolve many issues faced by homoeopathic practitioners across the globe and could predict a fairly accurate results making us better prepare in the field.},
     year = {2020}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Confirming merc solubilis as a genus epidemicus in the Evolving Pandemic Using a Mathematical Model Based Upon Machine Learning
    AU  - Shailendra Vaishampayan
    AU  - Joshua Joshi
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    AU  - Gulnaz Shaikh
    Y1  - 2020/12/22
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13
    T2  - American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
    JF  - American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
    JO  - American Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
    SP  - 111
    EP  - 120
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2330-8133
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajcem.20200806.13
    AB  - Background: Advent of a novel pandemic requires development of faster medicine discovery protocol compared to traditional approach. Normally these are placebo controlled clinical trials, such trials usually involve high risk and a lot of time and money and repetitive exposure of the patients involved. In this study we gathered all the pathognomonic features of COVID-19 and translated them to homeopathic clinical features by using the known technique of repertorization, using a software. Top 10 ranked remedies were selected for further exploration. A surrogate model was created for simulation based on real patient data available in which all patients received a random combination of ranked repertorized homeopathic medicine. This output was then fed to a Neural Network. The NN learnt by recognizing patterns that mapped to patients’ initial state to the results of remedies administered, fluctuations were averaged out and different patient features were discovered. Thus, enabling the NN to better predict optimum homeopathy remedies than the traditional method stated before. Method: We designed a mathematical model based upon the principles of machine learning and created a virtual clinical trial first of 200 patients and then updated it to 800 in lieu of a real one. The Results of these Surrogate Digital Clinical trial [SDCT] were fed to a neural network. The Neural Network Clinical Learning [NNCL], clearly gave us a list of drugs and a possible genus epidemicus for this covid 19. These results were compared with actual field results to a data of 130 patients of covid like illnesses, covid or pneumonia treated on OPD basic or through tele medicine. Results: The conclusion was reached by comparing the simulated clinical trials, predictions by the NN and findings in the observational studies. Although the model shows reasonable stability, it is presented as a proof of concept, which should be further rigorously studied and tested by other homeopathic practitioners for further optimization if required. In this study merc sol merged prominently as a genus epidemicus. A further change in the remedy in the reference to a possible second or third wave could be predicted by adding some valuable clinical data to the model. Conclusion: This study could resolve many issues faced by homoeopathic practitioners across the globe and could predict a fairly accurate results making us better prepare in the field.
    VL  - 8
    IS  - 6
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Homoeopathic Materia Medica, DYPatil Homeopathic Medical College and PG Institute, Maharashtra, India

  • Department of Electrical & Electronic Engineering City, University of London, London, United Kingdom

  • Dr. Vaisampayana’s Homoeopathic Clinic, Thane, Maharashtra, India

  • Dr. Vaisampayana’s Homoeopathic Clinic, Thane, Maharashtra, India

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