A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China
Science Journal of Public Health
Volume 3, Issue 5, September 2015, Pages: 612-617
Received: Jun. 3, 2015; Accepted: Jun. 11, 2015; Published: Jun. 29, 2015
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Authors
Xiaolei Zhou, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Boyu Zhang, Laboratory of Mathematics and Complex Systems, Ministry of Education, School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Xianbin Cong, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Xiaoheng Yao, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Cheng Ju, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Zhonglai Li, Laboratory of Mathematics and Complex Systems, Ministry of Education, School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Cheng Xu, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Tianyi Duan, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Guijun Zhang, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Lei Chen, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
Zhencai Liu, Chinese Base for Control of Plague and Brucellosis, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng, China
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Abstract
Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.
Keywords
Spermophilus dauricus Focus, Exponential Smoothing Method, Best Regression Subsets Method, Risk Classification
To cite this article
Xiaolei Zhou, Boyu Zhang, Xianbin Cong, Xiaoheng Yao, Cheng Ju, Zhonglai Li, Cheng Xu, Tianyi Duan, Guijun Zhang, Lei Chen, Zhencai Liu, A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China, Science Journal of Public Health. Vol. 3, No. 5, 2015, pp. 612-617. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
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