Please enter verification code
An Experimental Research of Small Hydropower Plant Investments Selection in Turkey by Carrot2, DEXi, DEXiTree
Journal of Investment and Management
Volume 4, Issue 1, February 2015, Pages: 47-60
Received: Jul. 18, 2015; Accepted: Jul. 22, 2015; Published: Jul. 29, 2015
Views 4447      Downloads 112
Burak Omer Saracoglu, Orhantepe Mahallesi, Tekel Caddesi, Geziyolu Sokak, Dragos, Kartal, Istanbul, Turkey
Article Tools
Follow on us
Nowadays, human daily lives depend very much to electricity. Hence, electricity generation plays a key role not only in countries' economies, but also in people's welfare and comfort in any region. This situation isn't also different for Turkey. Turkish electricity generation policy gives the opportunity for foreign and domestic private investments plans and schemes. Private investors have many private power plant investment options to invest in Turkey. One of the main groups is hydropower plants. Small hydropower plant investments are grouped under the hydropower plant investments. Their characteristics are very different from other types of hydropower plants. This experimental research study investigates the possibility of using a qualitative Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model based on DEXi (Decision EXpert for Education) and DEXiTree software. Attributes in the current experimental research model are analyzed by help of a text mining tool Carrot2. In the experimental case study, the most appropriate small hydropower plant investments amongst five alternative ones at the predevelopment investment stages (an assumption) in Turkey are evaluated, and prioritized by help of seventeen basic factors (catchment area, project runoff, net head, discharge, firm energy, secondary energy, investment cost, river basin, conveyance structure, community attitude, transportation, topography, geology, security conditions, terrorism conditions, protected areas, substation conditions) based on the experimental DEXi decision model. There are some interesting findings such as Option 5 gets the highest priority in the overall experimental decision model. Similarly, Option 5 has the very good preference in the objective attributes evaluation. Option 3 comes afterwards with the good preference. But, both Option 4 and Option 5 get the good preference in the subjective attributes evaluation. The DEXi model file (*.dxi) is also presented to readers for giving opportunity to readers for preparing their models based on this experimental research model. This experimental research study is seen as another very small research step to deeply understand the nature of the small hydropower plants investments decisions in the way of developing an autonomous computer based intelligent decision support system for the real world cases.
Carrot2, DEXi, DEXiTree, Investment, Multi Attribute Decision Making, Private, Small Hydropower, Turkey
To cite this article
Burak Omer Saracoglu, An Experimental Research of Small Hydropower Plant Investments Selection in Turkey by Carrot2, DEXi, DEXiTree, Journal of Investment and Management. Vol. 4, No. 1, 2015, pp. 47-60. doi: 10.11648/j.jim.20150401.17
Chandran, V.G.R., Sharma, S., and Madhavan, K.. "Electricity consumption-growth nexus: The case of Malaysia". Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp.606–612 (2010).
Cook, P. "Infrastructure, rural electrification and development. Energy for Sustainable Development", Vol. 15, No. 3, pp.304–313 (2011).
Dalgaard, C.J. and Strulik, H. "Energy distribution and economic growth". Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.33, No.4, pp.782–797 (2011).
World Bank. accessed in 05/09/2013 (2013).
Republic of Turkey Energy Market Regulatory Authority, accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
Open Energy Information. "Transparent Cost Database Levelized Cost Of Electricity", accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
National Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Simple. "Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Calculator Documentation", accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
Khatib, H. Economic Evaluation of Projects in the Electricity Supply Industry, London: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, (2003).
National Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Simple Levelized. "Cost of Energy Calculator" accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
European Renewable Energy Council. "REN21 Renewables 2012 Global Status Report". European Focus, Paris, France (2012).
Dragu, C., Sels, T., and Belmans, R. "Small hydro power-state of the art and applications". ESAT-ELEN, Energy Institute, Leuven, Belgium (2010).
Republic of Turkey Energy Market Regulatory Authority. "Hydropower Plant Licenses" accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
State Hydraulic Works. "Hydropower Plant Licenses" accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
Investopedia (2015). accessed in 17/07/2015.
Saaty, T.L. "How to make a decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process". European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.48, pp.9–26, (1990).
Saaty, T.L. "Relative Measurement and Its Generalization in Decision Making Why Pairwise Comparisons are Central in Mathematics for the Measurement of Intangible Factors The Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process". RACSAM (Revista Serie A Matemáticas: Rev. R. Acad. Cien. Serie A. Mat.), Vol. 102, No. 2, pp.251–318, (2008).
Bohanec, M. DEXi: Program for multi-attribute decision making user's manual version 4.00. Ljubljana: Jožef Stefan Institute, (2013).
Roy, B. "The outranking approach and the foundations of ELECTRE methods". Theory and Decision, Vol.31, pp.49–73 (1991).
Brans, J.P., and Vincke, P.H.. "A preference ranking organisition method: The PROMETHEE method for MCDM". Management Science, Vol.31, No.6, pp.647–656 (1985).
Google Scholar. ""power" AND "DEXi" search results",5&as_vis=1 accessed in 17/07/2015 (2015).
Bohanec, M., Znidarsic, M., Rajkovic, V., Bratko, I., and Zupan, B.. "DEX Methodology: Three Decades of Qualitative Multi-Attribute Modeling". Informatica, Vol.37, pp.49-54, (2013).
Efstathiou, J., and Rajkovič, V.. "Multiattribute decisionmaking using a fuzzy heuristic approach". IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-9, pp.326-333, (1979).
Bohanec, M., Bratko, I., and Rajkovic, V. "An expert system for decision making". Processes and Tools for Decision Making (ed. H.G. Sol), North-Holland, pp.235–248, (1983).
Bohanec, M., Rajkovic, V. "DEX: An expert system shell for decision support". Sistemica, Vol.1, No.1, pp.145-157, (1990).
Saracoglu, B.O. "An Experimental Research Study on the Solution of a Private Small Hydropower Plant Investments Selection Problem by ELECTRE III/IV, Shannon’s Entropy, and Saaty’s Subjective Criteria Weighting", Advances in Decision Sciences, Vol. 2015, Article ID.548460, 20 pages (2015). doi:10.1155/2015/548460
Saracoglu, B.O. "An AHP application in the investment selection problem of small hydropower plants in turkey", International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in press.
[27] "drainage basin" accessed in 18/07/2015 (2015).
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, The Water Cycle - USGS Water Science School, "Surface Runoff - The Water Cycle" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
US Energy Information Administration. "net head" accessed in 18/07/2015 (2015).
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, "How Streamflow is Measured Part 2: The discharge measurement" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
ESHA (European Small Hydropower Association). "Guide on How to Develop a Small Hydropower Plant", Brussels, Belgium, (2004).
NPTEL (National Programme on Technology Enhanced Learning) "Water Resources Engineering Dr. Dhrubajyoti Sen" accessed in 18/07/2015 (2015).
Wikia. "community attitudes" accessed in 18/07/2015 (2015).
Merriam-Webster. "transportation" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
[35] "topography" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
University of Minnesota, Department of Earth Sciences, Newton Horace Winchell School of Earth Sciences. "What is Earth Science" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
Oxford University Press. "security" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
[38] "terrorism" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature. "What is a protected area?" accessed in 21/07/2015 (2015).
Patrick, D.R., Fardo, S.W. Electrical distribution systems, 2nd ed. Lilburn: The Fairmont Press, (2009).
Carrot2. accessed in 18/07/2015 (2015).
Zamir, O., and Etzioni, O. "Grouper: a dynamic clustering interface to Web search results". Computer Networks, Vol.31, No.11, pp.1361–1374, (1999).
Osinski, S., and Weiss, D. "A concept-driven algorithm for clustering search results". Intelligent Systems, IEEE, Vol.20, No.3, pp.48–54, (2005).. DOI:10.1109/MIS.2005.38
Miller, G.A. "The magical number seven, plus or minus two: some limits on our capacity for processing information". The Psychological Review, Vol.63, pp.81–97 (1956).
Shiffrin, R.M., and Nosofsky, R.M. "Seven plus or minus two: a commentary on capacity limitations". Psychological Review, Vol.101, No.2, pp.357–361 (1994).
Kintsch, W., and Cacioppo, J.T. "Introduction to the 100th anniversary issue of the psycological review". Psychological Review, Vol.101, No.2, pp.195-199, (1994).
Schweickert, R., and Boruff, B. "Short-term memory capacity: Magic number or magic spell?". Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, Vol.12, No.3, pp.419-425 (1986).
DEXi Version 4.00 Help Manual
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186