| Peer-Reviewed

The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach

Received: 17 June 2013    Accepted:     Published: 20 July 2013
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

This paper employs a BEKK-MGARCH model approach to generate the conditional variances of monthly stock exchange prices, exchange rates and interest rates for Turkey. For the sample period 2002:M1-2009:M1, before the effects of global economic crisis hit Turkey, the results indicate a significant transmission of shocks and volatility among these three financial sectors.

Published in International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 1, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16
Page(s) 166-174
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

BEKK-MGARCH Model, Volatility Transmission, Conditional Variance

References
[1] Maysami, R.C. and Koh, T.S., "A Vector Error Correction Model of the Singapore Stock Market", International Review of Economics and Finance 9:1, 2000, pp. 79-96.
[2] Wu, Y., "Stock prices and exchange rates in a VEC model-the case of Singapore in the 1990s", Journal of Economics and Finance 24(3), 2000, p.260-274.
[3] Berument, H. and Günay, A., "Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey", Open Economies Review, 14, 2003, pp.19-27.
[4] Kim, K., "Dollar Exchange Rate and Stock Price: Evidence from Multivariate Cointegration and Error Correction Model", Review of Financial Economics 12, 2003, pp. 301-313.
[5] Erdem, C., Arslan C.K., Erdem M.S., "Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Istanbul Stock Exchange Indexes, Applied Financial Economics, 15, 2005, pp. 987-994.
[6] Tabak Benjamin M., "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Price and Exchange Rates: Evidence for Brazil", Central Bank of Brazil Working Paper 124, 2006, pp. 1-35.
[7] Ozair, Amber, "Causality Between Stock prices and Exchange Rates: A Case of The United States", Florida Atlantic University, Master of Science Thesis , 2006.
[8] Akay, H.K., Nargeleçekenler, M., "Finansal Piyasa Volatilitesi ve Ekonomi", Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi 61:4, 2006, pp.5-36.
[9] Ayvaz, Ö., "Döviz Kuru ve Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi", Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8:2, 2006, pp. 1-14.
[10] Cifter, A. and Ozun A., "Estimating the Effects of Interest Rates on Share Prices Using Multi-Scale Causality Test in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey", MPRA Paper No: 2485, 2007, pp.1-15.
[11] Sevuktekin, M. and Nargeleçekenler, M., "Türkiye'de IMKB ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkinin Belirlenmesi", 8. Turkiye Ekonometri ve Istatistik Kongresi, İnönü Üniversitesi, Malatya, 2007.
[12] Hyde, S., "The response of industry stock returns to market, exchange rate and interest rate risks", Manchester Business School Working Paper, 3, 2007, pp. 693-709.
[13] Dizdarlar, H.I. ,Derindere, S., "Hisse Senedi Endeksini Etkileyen Faktörler: İMKB 100 Endeksini Etkileyen Makro Ekonomik Göstergeler Üzerine Bir Araştırma, Yönetim/İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü Dergisi, 19:61, 2008, pp.113-124.
[14] Demireli, E., Etkin Pazar Kuramından Sapmalar: Finansal Anomalileri Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma, Ege Akademik Bakış 8:1, 2008.
[15] Vardar, G., Aksoy, G. and Can, E., "Effects of Interest and Exchange Rate on Volatility and Return of Sector Price Indices at Istanbul Stock Exchange", European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences ISSN 1450-2275, 11, 2008, pp. 126-135.
[16] Açıkalın, S., Aktaş, R., Ünal, S., "Relationships between stock markets and macroeconomic variables: An Empirical Analysis of the Istanbul Stock Exchange", Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 5, Issue 1, 2008, pp. 8-16.
[17] Raghavan M. and Dark J., "Return and Volatility Spillovers Between the Foreign Exchange Market and the Australian All Ordinaries Index", The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance 14, 2008, pp. 41-48.
[18] İpekten, O.B., Aksu, H., "Alternatif Yabancı Yatırım Araçlarının İMKB Indeksi Üzerine Etkisi", Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13:1, 2009, pp. 413-423.
[19] Aydemir, O., Demirhan, E., "The Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates Evidence From Turkey", International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23, 2009, pp.207-215.
[20] Büyükşalvarcı, A., "The Effects of Macroeconomics Variables on Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey", European Journal of Social Science 14:3/4, 2010, pp. 404-416.
[21] Yıldız, S. and Ulusoy, R., "Exchange Rate Volatility and Turkish Stock Returns", Middle Eastern Finance and Economics ISSN: 1450-2889, 12, 2011, pp. 42-48.
[22] Zia, Q.Z. and Rahman, Z., "The Causality between Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market of Pakistan", Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Vol.3, No.5, 2011, pp. 906-919.
[23] Anlas, T., "The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates On ISE-100 Index", Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research JAEBR, 2(1), 2012, pp. 34-45.
[24] Engle, R.F., "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom Inflation", Econometrica, 50, 1982, pp. 987-1007.
[25] Bollerslev, T., "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity", Journal of Econometrics, 31, 1986, pp. 307-327.
[26] Nelson, D.B., "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in assets returns: A new approach", Econometrica, 55, 1991, pp. 703-708.
[27] Zakoian, J.M., "Threshold Heteroscedastic Models", Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 18, 1994 pp.931-955.
[28] Glosten, L.R., Jagannathan, R. and Runkle, D., "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks", Journal of Finance, 48, 1993, pp. 1779-1801.
[29] McAleer, M., "Automated Inference and Learning in Modeling Financial Volatility", Econometric Theory, 21, 2005, pp. 32-261.
[30] Bollerslev, T., R.F. Engle, and D.B. Nelson, ARCH Models, in Handbook of Econometrics, Vol.IV, (eds. R.F. Engle and D. McFadden) Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1994.
[31] Bera, A.K. and Higgins, M.L., "ARCH models: properties, estimation and testing", Journal of Economic Surveys, 7, 1993, pp.305-362.
[32] Bauwens, L., S. Laurent, and J. Rombouts, "Multivariate GARCH Models: a Survey", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 2006, pp. 79–109.
[33] Bollerslev, T., R. F. Engle, ve J. M. Wooldridge, "A capital asset pricing model with time-varying covariances", The Journal of Political Economy, 96, 1988, pp. 116–131.
[34] Wei, C.C., "Multivariate GARCH Modeling Analysis of Unexpected U.S.D, Yen and Euro-dollar to Reminibi Volatility Spillover to Stock Markets", Economics Bulletin, vol.3, No.64, 2008, pp. 1-15.
[35] Engle, R. ve K. Kroner, "Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Reviews, 11, 1995, pp. 122–150.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Serpil Türkyılmaz, Mesut Balıbey. (2013). The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 1(3), 166-174. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Serpil Türkyılmaz; Mesut Balıbey. The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2013, 1(3), 166-174. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Serpil Türkyılmaz, Mesut Balıbey. The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2013;1(3):166-174. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16,
      author = {Serpil Türkyılmaz and Mesut Balıbey},
      title = {The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach},
      journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
      volume = {1},
      number = {3},
      pages = {166-174},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20130103.16},
      abstract = {This paper employs a BEKK-MGARCH model approach to generate the conditional variances of monthly stock exchange prices, exchange rates and interest rates for Turkey. For the sample period 2002:M1-2009:M1, before the effects of global economic crisis hit Turkey, the results indicate a significant transmission of shocks and volatility among these three financial sectors.},
     year = {2013}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - The Relationships among Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Price: A BEKK - MGARCH Approach
    AU  - Serpil Türkyılmaz
    AU  - Mesut Balıbey
    Y1  - 2013/07/20
    PY  - 2013
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16
    T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
    JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
    JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
    SP  - 166
    EP  - 174
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2326-9561
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20130103.16
    AB  - This paper employs a BEKK-MGARCH model approach to generate the conditional variances of monthly stock exchange prices, exchange rates and interest rates for Turkey. For the sample period 2002:M1-2009:M1, before the effects of global economic crisis hit Turkey, the results indicate a significant transmission of shocks and volatility among these three financial sectors.
    VL  - 1
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Sections