Saturated Electricity Power Analysis Based on Logistic Curve Model
International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
Volume 3, Issue 6-1, December 2014, Pages: 1-5
Received: Jul. 16, 2014; Accepted: Jul. 22, 2014; Published: Aug. 20, 2014
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Authors
Huiru Zhao, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
Sen Guo, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
Jia Zhou, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
Huijuan Huo, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
Wanlei Xue, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Power Economy & Technology Research Institute, Jinan City, Shandong Province, 250002, China
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Abstract
Power load forecasting is the foundation of urban power grid planning, and saturated electricity power is a key indicator for determining the ultimate power grid scale when performing the urban power grid planning. Taken Hubei province as the empirical example, the saturated electricity power is studied by employing Logistic curve model in this paper. Firstly, the electricity power consumption and annual maximum power load of Hubei province are forecasted; then, the saturated time and scale are determined according to the judgment criteria of electricity power saturation. The calculation result shows the electricity power of Hubei province will reach saturation at 2042-2043, and the electricity power consumption and annual maximum power load will reach to 377.89 billion kWh and 66.2499 million kW, respectively.
Keywords
Saturated Power Load, Logistic Curve Model, Forecasting, Hubei Province
To cite this article
Huiru Zhao, Sen Guo, Jia Zhou, Huijuan Huo, Wanlei Xue, Saturated Electricity Power Analysis Based on Logistic Curve Model, International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering. Special Issue:Energy Conservation and Management. Vol. 3, No. 6-1, 2014, pp. 1-5. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2014030601.11
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