Please enter verification code
Special Issues
Low Carbon Transition of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach
International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages: 11-21
Received: Jan. 10, 2020; Accepted: Jan. 31, 2020; Published: Mar. 10, 2020
Views 489      Downloads 236
Babajide Epe Shari, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Université Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger
Yacouba Moumouni, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Higher Colleges of Technology, Ras Al-Khaymah, United Arab Emirates
Abiodun Suleiman Momodu, Centre for Energy Research and Development, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Nigeria
Article Tools
Follow on us
It is imperative that Nigeria reduces wastage in residential electricity consumption and motivate energy saving behaviors through energy efficiency measures. These strategies aim to minimize frequent power sheds, which in turn increase reliability, thus benefiting the environment and electricity consumers. This article examines the effects of such innovative approaches to electricity savings in Nigeria through: 1) prepaid electricity metering systems and 2) fast replacements of inefficient and aging appliances. Relationships between residential electricity consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon footprint were also assessed vis-à-vis the replacement of old energy appliances and analogue electricity billing systems with more efficient devices and through prepaid metering systems, respectively. These techniques intend to promote energy saving behaviors. A System Dynamics model built on Stella platform, is used to analyze the implication of energy efficiency policy implementation on residential electricity consumption based on a simulation period of 41 years (2010 - 2050). Secondary data were sourced from the Bureau of Statistics, published articles, Nigerian power sector, World Bank, and primary data using cross sectional surveys of residential electricity consumers. Results, not only revealed that availability and utilization of prepaid electric meters and efficient appliances would motivate electricity saving behaviors, but also showed that efficient technologies could be the main drivers to future energy savings. Results also showed that carbon emissions were cut down by 45% in 2050. In addition, changes in electricity tariffs did not have any consequential effect on electricity consumption, but would rather influence electricity demand. Also, large number of occupant per house might have a negative impact on the Nigerian economic growth. Finally, results suggest that subsidies should be used on new household appliances as an effective energy policy measures. The developed model can be replicated in similar sectors in other emerging economies.
System Dynamics, Prepaid Meter, Energy Efficiency, Household Appliances, Electricity Consumption
To cite this article
Babajide Epe Shari, Yacouba Moumouni, Abiodun Suleiman Momodu, Low Carbon Transition of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach, International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering. Vol. 9, No. 1, 2020, pp. 11-21. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20200901.12
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License ( which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
IEA, IRENA, UNSD, WB, WHO “Tracking SDG 7: The energy progress report,” Washington, DC, 2019.
World. Bank, “Electricity Transmission And Access Project,” Republic Of Côte D’ Ivoire, 2017.
S. E. Céline Ramstein, Goran Dominioni, “State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019,” 2019.
WEF, “Energy for Economic Growth Energy Vision Update 2012,” 2012.
EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050,” 2019.
UNDP, World Energy Assessment: energy and the challenge of sustainability. The United Development Programme. New York, NY 10017, 2000.
EIA, “Annual Energy Outlook 2018 with projections to 2050,” Washington, DC, 2018.
IRENA, “REmap 2030: A Renewable Energy Roadmap,” IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2014.
J. Heinonen and S. Junnila, “Residential energy consumption patterns and the overall housing energy requirements of urban and rural households in Finland,” Energy Build., vol. 76, pp. 295–303, 2014.
A. S. Momodu, A. Addo, J. K. Akinbami, and Y. Mulugetta, “Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system : preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach,” Energy. Sustain. Soc., vol. 7, no. 11, pp. 1–23, 2017.
U. C. Nwaneto, U. B. Akuru, P. I. Udenze, C. C. Awah, and O. I. Okoro, “Economic Implications of Renewable Energy Transition in Nigeria,” 2018, no. September, pp. 1–9.
I. Dyner, R. A. Smith, G. E. Peña, I. Dyner, R. A. Smith, and G. E. Pena, “System Dynamics Modelling for Residential Energy Efficiency Analysis and Management Published by : Palgrave Macmillan Journals on behalf of the Operational Research Society Stable URL : Linked references are available,” J. Oper. Res. Soc., vol. 46, no. 10, pp. 1163–1173, 1995.
S. Babajide, “A System Dynamics Model of the Nigerian Electricity System,” 2018 Adv. Sci. Eng. Technol. Int. Conf., pp. 1–5, 2018.
NREEEP, “National Renewable Energy and Energy Approved by FEC for Ministry of Power Federal Republic of Nigeria,” 2015.
P. E. Orukpe and F. O. Agbontaen, “Prepaid Meter in Nigeria : The Story so Far and the Way Forward,” Adv. Mater. Res., vol. 824, pp. 114–119, 2013.
F. I. Abam and B. N. Nwankwojike, “Energy resource structure and on-going sustainable development policy in Nigeria : a review,” Int. J. Environ. Eng., 2014.
M. G. Oladokun and I. A. Odesola, “Household energy consumption and carbon emissions for sustainable cities – A critical review of modelling approaches,” Int. J. Sustain. Built Environ., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 231–247, 2015.
I. Bajracharya and N. Bhattarai, “System Dynamics Modeling of Lighting Electricity Demand in the Urban Residential Sector of Nepal,” J. Dev. Adm. Stud., vol. 23, no. (1-2), pp. 33–54, 2015.
Y. Y. Feng, S. Q. Chen, and L. X. Zhang, “System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO 2 emissions : A case study of Beijing, China,” Ecol. Modell., vol. 252, pp. 44–52, 2013.
E. N. Vincent and S. D. Yusuf, “Integrating Renewable Energy and Smart Grid Technology into the Nigerian Electricity Grid System,” Smart Grid Renew. Energy, vol. 5, no. September, pp. 220–238, 2014.
M. O. Dioha, “Modelling the Impact of Nigeria Household Energy Policies on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions,” Eng. J., vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 1–20, 2019.
G. Browne, P. Luis, and L. Weston, “The World Bank Annual Report 2019,” Washington, DC, 2019.
Federal Government of Nigeria, “Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 - Abridged Version,” 2010.
A. Malama, P. Mudenda, A. Ng, and L. Makashini, “The Effects of the Introduction of Prepayment Meters on the Energy Usage Behaviour of Different Housing Consumer Groups in Kitwe,” vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 237–259, 2014.
F. W. Geels, B. K. Sovacool, T. Schwanen, and S. Sorrell, “The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions,” Joule, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 463–479, 2017.
J. K. Musango, A. C. Brent, and A. M. Bassi, “Technological Forecasting & Social Change Modelling the transition towards a green economy in South Africa,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., vol. 87, pp. 257–273, 2014.
S. B. Nugroho et al., “The Effect of Prepaid Electricity System on Household Energy Consumption – the Case of Bogor, Indonesia,” Procedia Eng., vol. 198, no. September 2016, pp. 642–653, 2017.
P. N. K. Deenapanray and A. M. Bassi, “System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius,” Environ. Clim. Technol., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 20–35, 2015.
L. Wen, L. Bai, and E. Zhang, “System dynamic modeling and scenario simulation on Beijing industrial carbon emissions,” Environ. Eng. Res., vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 355–364, 2016.
M. Gebremicael, H. Yuan, and K. Tomsovic, “Restructured West African Power Pool,” pp. 1–4, 2009.
A. S. Momodu and L. Kivuti-bitok, “System dynamic modelling of electricity planning and climate change in West Africa [version 2 ; referees : 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations] Referee Status” no. 0, pp. 1–21, 2018.
Y. Moumouni, S. Ahmad, and R. J. Baker, “A system dynamics model for energy planning in Niger,” Int. J. Energy Power Eng., vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 308–322, 2014.
Sterman John. D, Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill, 2000.
A. Beall, F. Fiedler, J. Boll, and B. Cosens, “Sustainable water resource management and participatory system dynamics. Case study: Developing the palouse basin participatory model,” Sustainability, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 720–742, 2011.
J. W. Forrester, “Some Basic Concepts in System Dynamics,” pp. 1–17, 2009.
J. W. Forrester, “System Dynamics, Systems Thinking, and Soft OR,” vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 1–14, 1992.
C. Thanacha and A. Magzari, “Mathematics behind System Dynamics,” Worcester Polytechnic Institute In, 2012.
J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Jeffrey J. Shelstad, 2000.
J. W. Forrester and S. Albin, “Building a System Dynamics Model Part 1 : Conceptualization,” 1997.
L. F. Luna-reyes, “Model Conceptualization : a Critical Review Model Conceptualization : a Critical Review,” no. 518, pp. 1–11.
N. Cihat, G. Egilmez, and O. Tatari, “Towards greening the U.S. residential building stock : A system dynamics approach,” Build. Environ., vol. 78, pp. 68–80, 2014.
Iseesystems, “Creating CLDs,” 2018. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 09-Jan-2020].
U. Bariss, G. Bazbauers, A. Blumberga, and D. Blumberga, “System Dynamics Modeling of Households ’ Electricity Consumption and Cost-Income Ratio : a Case Study of Latvia,” vol. 20, 2017.
Y. Zheng, F. Han, Y. Tian, B. Wu, and Z. Lin, Addressing the Uncertainty in Modeling Watershed Nonpoint Source Pollution, 1st ed., vol. 26. © 2014 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved., 2014.
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186