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Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios
American Journal of Environmental Protection
Volume 2, Issue 1, February 2013, Pages: 10-36
Received: Mar. 15, 2013; Published: Feb. 20, 2013
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Erland G. Kolomyts, Institution of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, D-2-82, Pushchino, Moscow region, 142290, Russia
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The concept of landscape-ecological prognoses for temperate forest ecosystems in light of forthcoming climate changes is presented. Predictive analysis is based on empirical-statistical modeling ecosystems and on descriptions of their space organization. The boreal bioclimatic ecotone of the Volga river basin is used as an example for carry out the experience of analytical and cartographic prognostic scenario modeling of the nearest and distant future for given ecoregion and their paleogeographical analogs in upper Pleistocene and Holocene. The mechanisms of local and regional response of forest ecosystems to the anticipated global warming in the 21st centuries have been assessed, according to global climate prediction model GISS-1993 (modernized version 2003–2006). The quantitative methods of landscape-ecological forecasts have been developed by the author are described in detail. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime and plant cover structure of the territory. An analogous picture results from paleo-prognostic reconstructions of the optima of Holocene and Mikulino interglacial period.
Global Changes, Empirical-Statistical Modeling, Landscape-Ecological Prognosis, Paleoreconstruction
To cite this article
Erland G. Kolomyts, Zonal Ecosystems of Volga River Basin under Global Warming: Prognostic and Paleogeographical Scenarios, American Journal of Environmental Protection. Vol. 2, No. 1, 2013, pp. 10-36. doi: 10.11648/j.ajep.20130201.12
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