Please enter verification code
Confirm
Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Variability in Semi-arid North-eastern Ethiopia
International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
Volume 8, Issue 4, August 2020, Pages: 75-87
Received: Mar. 31, 2020; Accepted: Apr. 23, 2020; Published: Aug. 27, 2020
Views 160      Downloads 56
Authors
Abate Getachew Feleke, National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Meteorological Research and Studies Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mulualem Abera, National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Meteorological Data Archive and Climatology Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
Northeast Ethiopia is a semi-arid region that exhibits high rainfall and temperature variability. The impact of climate change has received a great deal of attention worldwide. This study focused on detecting trends in in rainfall (1983-2013) and temperature (1981-2010) at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales for six weather stations in semi-arid north eastern Ethiopia. The study also aimed to determine dry spell length, number of rainy days, onset and cessation dates, and length of growing period. The non-parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope were used to determine climatic trends. The results indicated that both the annual maximum and minimum temperature in the study region showed an increasing trend, but only the trend for maximum temperature was significant. In the same manner, both the Belg and Kiremt seasons maximum and minimum temperature also showed an increasing trend but only trend of maximum temperature during Belg season and trend of minimum and maximum temperature during Kiremt seasons was significant. The annual and Belg season rainfall in the region showed a decreasing trend and its trend was significant. The coefficient of rainfall variability for annual and Belg season was very high which could affect agricultural production in the region. In the contrary, the trend for Kiremt season rainfall was increasing without significant trend. On the other hand, the average length of dry spell during the Kiremt season in the region was generally long that ranged from 27 days to 39 days and showed both decreasing and increasing but with no significant trend in most stations. The number of annual rainy days also showed both increasing and decreasing trends but its trend was not significant. The length of growing period in the region was relatively stable at all stations during the last 30 years period without non-significant trend. In general, from the analysis of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature data series it can be concluded that rainfall and temperature characteristics of the study area is changing, even though some of the trends on both parameters were not statistically significant.
Keywords
Climate Variability, Dry Spell, LGP, Mann-kendall, Rainfall, Trend
To cite this article
Abate Getachew Feleke, Mulualem Abera, Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Variability in Semi-arid North-eastern Ethiopia, International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis. Vol. 8, No. 4, 2020, pp. 75-87. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200804.11
Copyright
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
References
[1]
Araya, A. Stroosnijder, L. (2011). Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 151: 425–436.
[2]
Ayalew, D., Tesfaye, K., Mamo, G. Yitaferu, B. Bayu, W. (2012). Variability of rainfall and its current trend in Amhara region, Ethiopia. Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7 (10): 1475-1486. http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/AJAR11.698.
[3]
Bewket, W. and Conway, D. (2007). A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol. 27: 1467-477. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1481.
[4]
Block, P., and Rajagopalan, B. (2007). Interannual variability and ensemble forecast of upper Blue Nile basin Kiremt season precipitation. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 8: 327-343. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM580.1
[5]
BoM, (2006a). Living with drought. Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Avai lable at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/ livedrought.shtml.
[6]
BoM. (2006b). Severe tropical cyclone Larry. Queensland Regional Office, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Available at http:// www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/
[7]
BoM. (2011). Special climate statement 24. An extremely wet end to 2010 leads to widespread flooding across eastern Australia. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/ scs24.pdf.
[8]
Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J. Hydrol. 58: 11-27.
[9]
Central Statistical Agency. (2005). Statistical abstract of Ethiopia. Central Statistical Authority. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[10]
Chaves, M.. M., Maroco, J. P. and Pereira, J. S. (2003). Understanding plant responses to drought-from genes to the whole plant. Func Plant Bio 30: 239–264.
[11]
De Luı´s, M., Gonza´lez-Hidalgo, J. C., Raventos, J., Sanchez, J. R. and Cortina, J. (1999). Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (East Spain). Int. J. Climatol. 20: 1451–1469.
[12]
Cheung, W. H., Senay, G. B. and Singh, A. (2008). Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol. 28: 1723–1734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1623.
[13]
Conway, D. (2000). Some aspects of climate variability in the northeast Ethiopian highlands-Wollo and Tigray. SINET: Ethiopian J. Sci. 23 (2): 139-161.
[14]
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2006). The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Rome, Italy.
[15]
Gardner, R.. H., Hargrove, W. G., Turner, M. G. and Romme, W. H. (1996) Climate change, disturbances and landscape dynamics. In: Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (Ed. by B. Walker and W. Steffen), Cambridge University Press, Great Britain, 149-172.
[16]
Gebreegziabher, Z., Stage, J., Mekonnen, A., and Alemu, A. (2011). Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis. Environment for Development Discussion Paper Series, p. 24.
[17]
Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Luis, J. J., Quesada, V., and Valero, F. (2001). Quality control and homogeneity of precipitation data in the southwest of Europe. J. Climate. 14: 964-978.
[18]
Gebre Hadgu, Kindie Tesfaye, Girma Mamo and Belay Kassa (2013). Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: Analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. Acad. J. Agric. Res. 1 (6): 088-100.
[19]
Hagos, F., Makombe, G., Namara, R. E., and Awulachew, S. B. (2009). Importance of irrigated agriculture to the Ethiopian economy: Capturing the direct net benefits of irrigation. Colombo, Sri Lanka: Int. Water Manage. Inst. p. 37. (IWMI Research Report 128).
[20]
Hassan, R. (2006). Impacts of climate change on Crop farming in Ethiopia. In: Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian approach, CEEPA Discussion paper No. 21, CEEPA, University of Pretoria, South Africa.
[21]
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., and Xiaosu, D. (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp.
[22]
IPCC-TGCIA. (1999). Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Version 1. Prepared by Carter TR, Hulme M, and Lal M. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment, p. 69.
[23]
Karpouzos, D. k., Kavalieratou, S., Babajimopoulos C (2010). Trend analysis of Precipitation data in Pieria Region (Greece). European Water, 30: 31-40.
[24]
Kulkarni, A., and Von Storch, H. (1995). Monte-Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann–Kendall test of trend. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 4 (2): 82–85.
[25]
Lucier, A., Palmer, M., Mooney, H., Nadelhoffer, K., Ojima, D., and, F. (2006). Ecosystems and climate change: research priorities for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Recommendations from the Scientific Community. Report on an Ecosystems Workshop, prepared for the Ecosystems Interagency Working Group. Special Series No. SS-92-06, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, 50 pp.
[26]
National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) (2001). Report submitted to initial national communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[27]
Ngongondo, C., Yu-Xu, C., Gottschalk, L., and Alemaw, B. (2011). Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region. Theor. Appl. Climatol. DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0413-0.
[28]
Onoz, B., and Bayazit, M. (2012). The Power of Statistical Tests for Trend Detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering & Environmental Sciences 27 (2003), 247-251.
[29]
Pidwirny, M. (2006) The carbon cycle. Fundamentals of physical geography, 2nd edn. Available at http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/9r.html. Accessed 16 January 2012.
[30]
Seleshi, Y., and Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol. 24: 973-983. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052.
[31]
Seleshi, Y., and Camberlin, P. (2006). Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 83 (1-4): 181-191.
[32]
Somerville, C., and Briscoe, J. (2001). Genetic engineering and water. Science 292: 2217.
[33]
Stern, R., Rijks, D., Dale, I., and Knock, J. (2006). INSTAT (interactive statistics) climate guide. pp. 330.
[34]
Tabari, H., Marofi, S., Aeini, A., Talaee, P. H., and Mohammadi, K. (2011). Trend Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Western half of Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 128-136.
[35]
Tesfaye, K., and Walker, S. (2004). Matching of crop and environment for optimal water use: the case of Ethiopia. Phys. Chem. Earth. 29: (15-18): 1061-1067.
[36]
Thomson, A. M., Calvin, K. V., Smith, S. J., Kyle, G. P., Volke, A., Patel, P., Delgado-Arias, S., Bond-Lamberty, B., Wise, M. A., Clarke, L. E., and Edmonds, J. A. (2011) RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109: 77–94.
[37]
Tosic, I., and Ukaseviç, M. (2005). Analysis of precipitation series for Belgrade. Theoretical andApplied Climatology 80, 67-77.
[38]
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/temperature.html, Date Accessed 05/18/2012.
[39]
Yenigun, K., Gumus, V., Bulut, H. (2008). Trends in stream flow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey. Proc. Inst. Civil Eng. Water Manage. 161: 189–198. doi: 10.1680/wama.2008.161.4.189.
[40]
Viste, E., Korecha, D., Sorteberg, A. (2012). Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia. Theor. Appl. Climatol. DOI 10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3.
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186