Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics

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Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016)

Received: 04 January 2018    Accepted: 15 January 2018    Published: 31 January 2018
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Abstract

This study sought to model risk factors of diabetes (A case study of Focus Medical Center in Kiambu, Kenya) for the year 2016. We considered sample of size 181 patients and carried descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, Chi-Square test and Hosmer and Lemeshow test. The independence test between response variable (diabetes) and predictor variables (age, obesity, alcohol, smoking and hypertension) was carried. The variables age, obesity, alcohol and hypertension were found to be statistically significant at α =0.05 level of significant. A multiple logistic regression model was fitted and the fitted regression model indicated that the predictor variables age, obesity and alcohol were statistically significant. The results of the odds ratios show that age, obesity and alcohol consumption are positively associated with diabetes. The fitted reduced multiple logistic regression model was subjected to an overall goodness-of-fit test and results indicate that there is no significant difference between the observed and predicted probability. Based on the results of this study, we recommend that special attention should be given to individuals advanced in age, consume alcohol or who are obese for screening as there is a high possibility of testing positive for diabetes for health care givers to monitor and manage the condition. Further, healthy lifestyles should be promoted among the general population and in particular, the diabetic patients to increase the chance of properly managing the condition. A further study ought to be conducted to assess treatment interventions of diabetes to ascertain the effectiveness and recommend the best medication for patients suffering from diabetes.

DOI 10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12
Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 6, Issue 1, February 2018)
Page(s) 7-15
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Diabetes, Multiple Logistic Regression, Risk Factors, Odd Ratio, Sample Size, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

References
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[2] American Diabetes Association, (2013). Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2012 Association, American Diabetes, Diabetes care, 36 (4).
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[5] Feingold, K. and Siperrstein M. D. (1983). Normalization of fasting blood glucose levels in insulin requiring diabetes the role of ethanol absentention. Diabetes care, 6 (2), 186-188.
[6] Johnson, K. H., M. Bazargan and E. G. Bing, (2000). Alcohol Consumption and compliance among inner-city minority patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Archives of Familty Medicine: 964-970.
[7] Cox, W. M., et al (1996). Diabetic patients' alcohol use and qaulity life: relationships with prescribed treatment compliance among older males. Acoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research 20 (2), 327-31.
[8] Will, C. Julie, et al. (2001). Cigarette smoking and diabetes mellitus: evidence of a positive association from a large prospective cohort study. International Journal of Epidemiology vol. 30 (3) 540-546.
[9] Opie, I. H. and Y. K. Seedat. (2005). Hypertension in Sub-saharan African Population. Circulation 112 (23), 3562-3568.
[10] Mancia, G. (2005). The association of hypertension and diabetes: prevalence, cardiovascular risk and protection by blood pressure reduction. Acta Diabetol 42, 17-25.
[11] Maty, S. C., et al. (2005). Education, Income, Occupation, and the 34-year Incidence (1965-1999) of type 2 diabetes in Alameda County Study. International Journal Epidemiology 34 (6), 1274-81.
[12] Yuko, Morikawa, et al. (1997). Ten-year follow-up study on the relation between the development of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and occupation. Ameican Journal of Industrial Medicine 31, 80-84.
[13] Azimi-Nezhad, M., et al (2008). Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Iran and its relationship with gender, urbanization, education, marital status and occupation. Singapore Medicine Journal 49 (7), 571-6.
[14] Fonseca, V. A., et al (2012). National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive Kidney Diseases (NIDDK).
[15] Belue, R., et al (2009). An overview of cardiovascular risk factor burden in sub-saharan African countries: a social-cultural perspective. Globalization and Health, 5 (1), 10.
[16] Lasky, D., et al (2002). Obesity and Gender differences in the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Uganda. Nutrition (burbank, Los Angeles County, Califonia), 18 (5), 417-21.
[17] Ejim, E. C., et al (2013). Cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged and elderly residents in South-East Nigeria: the influence of urbanization. Journal of the National Association Medicine of Resident Doctors of Nigeria, 22 (4), 286-91.
[18] Amoah, A. G., et al (2000). A national diabetes care and education programme: the Ghan model. Diabetic Research and Clinical Practice, 49 (2-3), 149-157.
[19] Kavanagh, A., et al (2010). Socialeconomic position, gender, health behaviors and biomarkers of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Social Science and Medicine, 71 (6), 1150-60.
[20] Robbins, J. M., et al (2001). Social economic status and type 2 diabetes in African American and non-Hispanic white women and men: Evidence fron the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. American Journal of Public Health, 91 (1), 76-83.
[21] Agardh, E., et al (2011). Type 2 diabetes incidence and social-economic position: a systematic review and meta-analysis. International Journal of Epidemiology 1-15.
[22] Faerch, K., et al (2009). Predictions of future fasting and 2-h post-OGTT plasma glucose levels in middle-aged men and women. Diabetic Medicine, 26 (4), 377-83.
[23] Assah, F. K., et al (2011). Urbanization, physical activity, and metabolic health in sub-saharan Africa. Diabetes Care 34, 491-496.
[24] Guthold, R., et al (2008). Worldwide Variability in Physical Inactivity. A 51-County Survey. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 34 (6), 486-494.
[25] Estimation of diabetes and its burden in the Epidemiologic estimation methods. National Diabetes Statistics Report. 2014.
[26] Mokdad, A. H., et al (2003). Prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and obesity-related health risk factors. Journal of American Medical Association 289 (1), 76-9.
[27] Florez, J. C., J. (2003). Hirschhorn and D. Altshuler. The inherited basis of diabetes mellitus: implications for the generic analysis of complex traits. Annual review of genomics and genetics, 4, 257-91.
[28] International Diabetes Federation (IDF). 2013.
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Author Information
  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya

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  • APA Style

    Thomas Mageto, Efron Njuguna, Dolleen Osundwa. (2018). Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016). Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 6(1), 7-15. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12

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    ACS Style

    Thomas Mageto; Efron Njuguna; Dolleen Osundwa. Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016). Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2018, 6(1), 7-15. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12

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    AMA Style

    Thomas Mageto, Efron Njuguna, Dolleen Osundwa. Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016). Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2018;6(1):7-15. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12,
      author = {Thomas Mageto and Efron Njuguna and Dolleen Osundwa},
      title = {Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016)},
      journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
      volume = {6},
      number = {1},
      pages = {7-15},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20180601.12},
      abstract = {This study sought to model risk factors of diabetes (A case study of Focus Medical Center in Kiambu, Kenya) for the year 2016. We considered sample of size 181 patients and carried descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, Chi-Square test and Hosmer and Lemeshow test. The independence test between response variable (diabetes) and predictor variables (age, obesity, alcohol, smoking and hypertension) was carried. The variables age, obesity, alcohol and hypertension were found to be statistically significant at α =0.05 level of significant. A multiple logistic regression model was fitted and the fitted regression model indicated that the predictor variables age, obesity and alcohol were statistically significant. The results of the odds ratios show that age, obesity and alcohol consumption are positively associated with diabetes. The fitted reduced multiple logistic regression model was subjected to an overall goodness-of-fit test and results indicate that there is no significant difference between the observed and predicted probability. Based on the results of this study, we recommend that special attention should be given to individuals advanced in age, consume alcohol or who are obese for screening as there is a high possibility of testing positive for diabetes for health care givers to monitor and manage the condition. Further, healthy lifestyles should be promoted among the general population and in particular, the diabetic patients to increase the chance of properly managing the condition. A further study ought to be conducted to assess treatment interventions of diabetes to ascertain the effectiveness and recommend the best medication for patients suffering from diabetes.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

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    T1  - Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016)
    AU  - Thomas Mageto
    AU  - Efron Njuguna
    AU  - Dolleen Osundwa
    Y1  - 2018/01/31
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    JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
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    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2376-9513
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12
    AB  - This study sought to model risk factors of diabetes (A case study of Focus Medical Center in Kiambu, Kenya) for the year 2016. We considered sample of size 181 patients and carried descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, Chi-Square test and Hosmer and Lemeshow test. The independence test between response variable (diabetes) and predictor variables (age, obesity, alcohol, smoking and hypertension) was carried. The variables age, obesity, alcohol and hypertension were found to be statistically significant at α =0.05 level of significant. A multiple logistic regression model was fitted and the fitted regression model indicated that the predictor variables age, obesity and alcohol were statistically significant. The results of the odds ratios show that age, obesity and alcohol consumption are positively associated with diabetes. The fitted reduced multiple logistic regression model was subjected to an overall goodness-of-fit test and results indicate that there is no significant difference between the observed and predicted probability. Based on the results of this study, we recommend that special attention should be given to individuals advanced in age, consume alcohol or who are obese for screening as there is a high possibility of testing positive for diabetes for health care givers to monitor and manage the condition. Further, healthy lifestyles should be promoted among the general population and in particular, the diabetic patients to increase the chance of properly managing the condition. A further study ought to be conducted to assess treatment interventions of diabetes to ascertain the effectiveness and recommend the best medication for patients suffering from diabetes.
    VL  - 6
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