American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 9, Issue 4, July 2020, Pages: 106-120
Received: Feb. 2, 2020;
Accepted: Mar. 2, 2020;
Published: Jun. 4, 2020
Views 204 Downloads 64
Yahaya Haruna Umar, Statistics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
Bamanga Muhammad, Statistics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
Udeme Omoren, Statistics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
West African countries have suffered so much under poor economic growth rate; this issue is largely caused as a result of the poor performance in international trade, which is one of the most essential tools for economic growth. The study investigated the factors influencing international trade in West African Sub region. A Pooled OLS, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model were adopted to fit the panel regression model for the panel data sets. The study divided the models into three in other to have proper view of factors influencing international trade across West African Sub-region, each model contain the same independent variables and different dependent variables. The result shows that fixed effect model was accurate for the study. Also from the study it was observed that for the first model which use import as dependent variable, gross domestic production, foreign direct investment, and exchange rate are positively significant to import which implies that all the regressor variable influence import across west African sub region positively, while only GDP and FDI are positively significant to export and only FDI is positively significant to trade balance (TB). We therefore conclude that foreign direct investment is the key macro-economic variable that positively influences the policy of international trade across West African over the period of consideration.
Yahaya Haruna Umar,
Panel Data Analysis of International Trade in West African Sub Region, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics.
Vol. 9, No. 4,
2020, pp. 106-120.
Posner, M. V. 1961. ‘International Trade and Technical Changes’, Oxford Economic Papers, No. 13: 323-341.
Vernon, R. 1966. ‘International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle’ Quarterly Journal of Economics, No. 80: 190-207.
Dreze, J. 1961. ‘Leo Exportation Intra-CEE en 1958 et al Position Belge’, RecherchesEconomiques de Louvain (louvin), 27, 7171-738.
Mathur, S. K. 1999. ‘Pattern of International Trade, New Trade Theories and Evidence from Gravity Equation Analysis’, The Indian Economic Journal, Vol. 47, No. 4: 68-88.
Paas, T. 2000. ‘Gravity Approach for Modeling Trade Flows between Estonia and the Main Trading Partners’, Working Paper, No. 721, Tartu University Press, Tartu.
Rodríguez, Francisco and Dani Rodrik. 2001. “Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence,” in Ben Bernanke and Kenneth S. Rogoff, eds., Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press for NBER.
Sachs, Jeffrey D. and Andrew Warner. 1995. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1-118.
Frankel, Jeffrey and David Romer. 1999. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89 (June): 379-99
Vamvakidis, Athanasios. 2002. “How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence.” Journal of Economic Growth 7: 57-80.
World Bank, 2016, 2012. World Development Indicators (WDI). Economic and Social Data Service 665 (ESDS) International, (Mimas) University of Manchester
Musila, J. W., Sigué, S. P. and Anyangah, J. O. (2003) ''An assessment of currency depreciation on inflation in Malawi: simulation results from a macroeconometric model,'', The Journal of African Development, Vol. 6, pp. 78-113.
McAleese, D. (2004) Economics for business: competition, macro¬stability and globalisation. 3rd ed. Edinburgh Gate: Pearson Education Limited
Borensztein, E., J. De Gregoria and J. Lee. 1998. “How does foreign investment affect economic growth?” Journal of International Economics, 45 (1): 115–35
Collier, P. and Dollar, D. (2001) “Development effectiveness: What have we learnt”? Development Research Group, the World Bank. Available online at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/16/2/2664872.pdf. Accessed on 20/10/2010
Hare, R. D. (2006). Psychopathy: A clinical and forensic overview. Psychiatric Clinics of North America, 29 (3), 709-724.
Dollar, D. and A. Kraay (2003) ‘Institutions, Trade, and Growth’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 50: 133–62.
Baltagi, B. H. and Y. J. Chang, 1994, Incomplete panels: A comparative study of alternative estimators for the unbalanced one-way error component regression model, Journal of Econometrics 62, 67–89.
Greene, W. H. (2008) Econometric Analysis. 6th Edition, Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River.
Breusch, T. S. and A. R. Pagan, 1980, The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics, Review of Economic Studies 47, 239–253.
Hausman, J. (1978), Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, Vol. 46, n°6, pp. 1251–1271.
Baltagi, B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 2nd ed.
Kennedy, Peter. 2008. A Guide to Econometrics, 6th ed. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing.