American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 9, Issue 3, May 2020, Pages: 37-46
Received: Oct. 15, 2019;
Accepted: Apr. 15, 2020;
Published: Apr. 28, 2020
Views 58 Downloads 26
Tofik Mussa Reshid, Department of Statistics, Werabe University, Werabe, Ethiopia
Ethiopia was one of the countries least developed and it is among the countries in the bottom in the rank of GDP’s that UN lists. However, nowadays Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. In Ethiopia much effort has been made to build the national economy. Ethiopia has made significant strides towards becoming a middle income country by 2025. This paper provides an overview of Box-Jenkins model for temporal data. In this research we used time series analysis of some of Ethiopian economic features such as GDP, GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Box-Jenkins model was used to analyze 35-year data (1981-2015). GDP, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate were variables under the study to describe persistence change and to forecast future behaviors. We tried to find best model for description and predictive model for these series using different model selection tools. We compared different orders of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using AIC, BIC and MSE to fit the observed data. The best from compared was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) for GDP, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for GDP growth rate and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for inflation rate. Since forecasting is important for many purposes, we forecast the series from best ARIMA models. Five year forecast showing that GDP is an increasing trend and the average forecast of GDP rates is showing an average of 10.028.
Tofik Mussa Reshid,
Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics.
Vol. 9, No. 3,
2020, pp. 37-46.
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
ANNUA 2012 report: United Nations development programe in Ethiopia, Transformation, excellence and action.
Pasapitch Chujai, Nittaya Kerdprasop, and Kittisak Kerdprasop, Time series analysis of house hold electric consumption with ARIMA and ARMA models.
Robinson Kruse; creates research paper 2010-28.
Box, G. E. R., Jenkins, G. M.: Time Series Analysis, Forcasting and control, holden days Sanfransisco 1976.
A. Ion. McLeod, Hao Yu, Esam Mahdi, 2011: Time series analysis with R.
Sources of Inflation and Economic Growth in Ethiopia Part II By Teshome A. (PhD) 01 September 2011.
Jenkins, D. M., Watts, D. G.: Spectral Analysis and its application, holden days Sanfransisco 1968.
Marea Fazekas 2004: Application of time series models on medical research.
Barsky, R. B. (1987): ”The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastibility and persistence of inflation journal of monitory economics 19, 3–24.
Tewodros Gebru, 2015: Determinants of economic growth in Ethiopia, A time series analysis, Msc thesis, Addis Ababa University.
Javer Contreras et. al 2003: ARIMA models to predict next day electricity price, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 18, NO. 3.
Burdekin, R. C. K. and P. L. Siklos (1999): ”Exchange rate regimes and shifts in inflation persistence: does nothing else matter Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31, 235–247.
Mankiw, N. G., J. A. Miron, and D. N. Weil (1987): ”The adjustment of expectations to changek in regime: a study of the founding of the federal reserve.” American Economic Review 77,
Hakkio, C. S. and M. Rush (1991): ”Is the budget deficit too large?” Economic Inquiry.
Wayne A. Fuller 1996: Introduction to statistical time series, second Edition, Wiley Series in probability and statistics.
Alexander Aue, 2010: Applied Time series analysis, Lecture notes, University of California, Davis.
Robert Yaffee with Monnie McGee; 1999: Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting with application of SAS and SPSS.
W. N. Venables, D. M. smith and the R-core team, 2016: An introduction to R.
Alemayehu Geda, Addis yimer, 2014: Growth, Poverity and Inquality in Ethiopia, 2000-2013: Amacroeconomic Appraisal, Department of Economics Addis Ababa university.
Chinoso Michael, Oluchukuwu Chukuwuemeka, Charity Uchena, Nnaemeka Martin Eze, Chukwunenya Ifeanyi Okonkwo. On the Fourier Residual Modification of Arima Models in Modeling Malaria Incidence Rates among Pregnant Women. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics Vol. 9, No. 1, 2020, pp. 1-7. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200901.11
Admasu Shiferaw, 2017: Productive capacity and Economic growth in Ethiopia. Department of Economic and social affairs. CDP Background Paper No. 34.
Esubalew Asmare Shilea 2019: Economic Growth- Quality of Life Nexus in Ethiopia: Time Series Analysis.
Adisie Melak 2018: The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment for Economic growth of Ethiopia: Time Series Analysis DebreTabor University, Ethiopia