Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 9, Issue 3, May 2020, Pages: 37-46
Received: Oct. 15, 2019; Accepted: Apr. 15, 2020; Published: Apr. 28, 2020
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Tofik Mussa Reshid, Department of Statistics, Werabe University, Werabe, Ethiopia
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Ethiopia was one of the countries least developed and it is among the countries in the bottom in the rank of GDP’s that UN lists. However, nowadays Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. In Ethiopia much effort has been made to build the national economy. Ethiopia has made significant strides towards becoming a middle income country by 2025. This paper provides an overview of Box-Jenkins model for temporal data. In this research we used time series analysis of some of Ethiopian economic features such as GDP, GDP growth rate and inflation rate. Box-Jenkins model was used to analyze 35-year data (1981-2015). GDP, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate were variables under the study to describe persistence change and to forecast future behaviors. We tried to find best model for description and predictive model for these series using different model selection tools. We compared different orders of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using AIC, BIC and MSE to fit the observed data. The best from compared was ARIMA (2, 2, 2) for GDP, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for GDP growth rate and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for inflation rate. Since forecasting is important for many purposes, we forecast the series from best ARIMA models. Five year forecast showing that GDP is an increasing trend and the average forecast of GDP rates is showing an average of 10.028.
ACF, PACF, ARIMA, ARMA, Inflation, GDP, Forecast, Box-Jenkins, Box-Ljung
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Tofik Mussa Reshid, Ethiopian Economic Features and Changing Persistence: A Time Series Analysis, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 9, No. 3, 2020, pp. 37-46. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20200903.12
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