Estimation of CPI of Some Sub-sahara African Countries: Panel Data Approach
American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
Volume 8, Issue 6, November 2019, Pages: 246-252
Received: Jul. 13, 2019; Accepted: Oct. 31, 2019; Published: Nov. 15, 2019
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Authors
Oyekunle Janet Olufunmike, Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Nigeria
Ayoola Joshua Femi, Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Oyenuga Iyabode Favour, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria
Masopa Adekunle Nurudeen, Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Nigeria
Adesiyan Adefowope Abdul Azeez, Department of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Nigeria
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Abstract
One of the economic indicators that are necessary to provide information on the state and progress of country is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the price of goods and services over a certain period of time. An effective monetary policy depends on the ability of economists to develop a reliable model that could understand the ongoing economic processes and predict future developments. Hence, this study is aimed at estimating CPI (a component of Inflation) in 20 Sub–Sahara African (SSA) countries in relation to Broad Money (BM), Export Rate (EXP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE) using panel data approach. The data was extracted from the World Bank Data Bank for a period of 30 years (1987-2016). The Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was employed and the model summary was computed using the panel least squares. The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) was used to test for the presence of multicollinearity. The result of the analysis shows that the CPI for SSA countries ranges from 0.0007% to 298.51% (2010=100) with an average of 59.76%. All the predictors included in estimating the CPI have significant effect at 5% level except the GDP. The estimated panel regression equation is CPIit=71.4449-0.1735BMit-0.3309EXPit+7.4338e-12GDPit+1.1335e-10PCEit. The estimated coefficient of determination is 0.853 which means that 85.3% of the total variation in CPI can be accounted for by the variations in the macroeconomic variables included. The VIF for all the variables is less than 3.o meaning that there is no sign of multicollinearity and therefore, there is no correlation among the predictors. It was concluded that the FEM estimated can be used to assess the behavior of the CPI in the nearest future. Moreover, 85.3% of the variations in CPI can be explained by the economic variables used as independent variables. It is recommended that efforts should be geared towards improving the input of these variables in the economy such that appropriate relationship will exist between them and the CPI in the SSA nations.
Keywords
CPI, SSA, PCE, EXP, GDP
To cite this article
Oyekunle Janet Olufunmike, Ayoola Joshua Femi, Oyenuga Iyabode Favour, Masopa Adekunle Nurudeen, Adesiyan Adefowope Abdul Azeez, Estimation of CPI of Some Sub-sahara African Countries: Panel Data Approach, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 246-252. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20190806.16
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Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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