A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo

Kokou Amega; Yacouba Moumouni; Yendoubé Lare

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo

Kokou Amega, Yacouba Moumouni, Yendoubé Lare

Published in International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 10, Issue 6)

Received: 18 November 2021 Accepted: 7 December 2021 Published: 24 December 2021

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Abstract

According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.

Published in	International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 10, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
Page(s)	141-150
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Electricity Consumption, Long-Term, Residential Sector, System Dynamics, Stella, Urban

References

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APA Style

Kokou Amega, Yacouba Moumouni, Yendoubé Lare. (2021). A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 10(6), 141-150. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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ACS Style

Kokou Amega; Yacouba Moumouni; Yendoubé Lare. A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2021, 10(6), 141-150. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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AMA Style

Kokou Amega, Yacouba Moumouni, Yendoubé Lare. A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2021;10(6):141-150. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17,
  author = {Kokou Amega and Yacouba Moumouni and Yendoubé Lare},
  title = {A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {10},
  number = {6},
  pages = {141-150},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  abstract = {According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo
AU  - Kokou Amega
AU  - Yacouba Moumouni
AU  - Yendoubé Lare
Y1  - 2021/12/24
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 141
EP  - 150
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
AB  - According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.
VL  - 10
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Kokou Amega

West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), University Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger
Yacouba Moumouni

Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Higher Colleges of Technology, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
Yendoubé Lare

Physics’ Department, University of Lomé, Lomé, Togo

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APA Style

Kokou Amega, Yacouba Moumouni, Yendoubé Lare. (2021). A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 10(6), 141-150. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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ACS Style

Kokou Amega; Yacouba Moumouni; Yendoubé Lare. A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2021, 10(6), 141-150. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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AMA Style

Kokou Amega, Yacouba Moumouni, Yendoubé Lare. A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2021;10(6):141-150. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17,
  author = {Kokou Amega and Yacouba Moumouni and Yendoubé Lare},
  title = {A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo},
  journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
  volume = {10},
  number = {6},
  pages = {141-150},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.20211006.17},
  abstract = {According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - A System Dynamics Modelling of a Long-term Residential Electricity Consumption in Lomé, Togo
AU  - Kokou Amega
AU  - Yacouba Moumouni
AU  - Yendoubé Lare
Y1  - 2021/12/24
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
T2  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering
SP  - 141
EP  - 150
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-960X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.20211006.17
AB  - According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.
VL  - 10
IS  - 6
ER  -

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