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Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia

Received: 14 April 2021    Accepted: 7 June 2021    Published: 16 June 2021
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Abstract

Ethiopia composes diversified topographic structures; undulated plateaus and mountains, raged valleys and plains. The highlands and ever-green portions of the county are fringed by the Sahara and Arabian deserts as well as East African arid climates. This study investigates the spatial and temporal seasonal (June-September [JJAS]) rainfall variability and the associated circulation patterns over Ethiopia. The study utilized ten daily station gridded rainfall, monthly SST, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind at various levels for 1983-2015. Statistical methods employed include EOF, composite and correlation analysis. The three leading EOF analysis revealed 57.8% that the first and second PC modes over Gambella are associated with ENSO and IOD variability. Wind and velocity potential revealed that wet (dry) years were characterized by convergence (divergence) in the lower level and divergence (convergence) at the upper level, implying rising (sinking) motion over the study area and western Indian Ocean. During normal (wet) years, maximum intensity of westerlies was generally observed at 850 hPa level, while easterlies were dominant at the upper level. There exists a significant correlation between JJAS rainfall and Nino3.4 for ENSO with r value (-0.56) but insignificant for (DMI) IOD with r value (-0.11). A cold (warm) summer SST over the central equatorial Pacific is associated with more (less) rainfall over Ethiopia. This shows that both ENSO and IOD modes have influence on rainfall variability during main rainy season. The findings of this and related studies is crucial to the development, planning and mitigation of all rainfall dependent activities.

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 9, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13
Page(s) 67-95
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Rainfall, Kiremt, ENSO, IOD, Extremes, Wind, SST, Ethiopia

References
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[2] Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 27: 1467-477. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1481
[3] Camberlin P, Philippon N (2002) The East African March-May Rainy season: associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968–97 period. J Clim 15: 1002–1019.
[4] Camberlin, P. (2009). Nile Basin Climates. In ―The Nile: Origin, Environments, Limnology and Human Use‖, Dumont, Henri J. (Ed.), Monographiae Biologicae, Springer, 307-333.
[5] Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011), Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: Part II. Seasonal forecasting. Clim Dyn 37: 121–131.
[6] Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes and E. Black (2010). Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Seasonal forecasting. Clim. Dyn., 37 (1-2): 121-131.
[7] Findlater, J. (1977). Observational aspects of the low-level cross-equatorial jet stream of the western Indian Ocean. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 115 (5-6): 1256-1262.
[8] Gebregziabher Z, Stage J, Mekonnen A, Alemu A (2011) Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Environment for Development.
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[11] IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working GroupII to the Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof, JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22.
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[14] Meybeck A, Lankoski J, Redfern S, Azzu N, Gitz V (2012) Building resilience for adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Proceedings of a Joint FAO/OECD workshop, Food and Agriculture Organization.
[15] National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) (2007). Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Water Resources National Meteorological Agency. Abebe T, National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa.
[16] Rao P, Solomon A (2013). Trend Analysis and Adaptation Strategies of Climate Change in North Central Ethiopia. Int J. Agric. Sci. Res. 3 (1): 253–262.
[17] Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. J Climate 16: 2735–2751. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016.
[18] Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89: 153–180.
[19] Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009). Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. Int J Climatol 29: 1075–1100.
[20] Seleshi Y, Camberlin P (2006) Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 83: 181–191.
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  • APA Style

    Waza Mulualem Abera, Wang Wen. (2021). Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 9(3), 67-95. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13

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    ACS Style

    Waza Mulualem Abera; Wang Wen. Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2021, 9(3), 67-95. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13

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    AMA Style

    Waza Mulualem Abera, Wang Wen. Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2021;9(3):67-95. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13,
      author = {Waza Mulualem Abera and Wang Wen},
      title = {Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia},
      journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
      volume = {9},
      number = {3},
      pages = {67-95},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20210903.13},
      abstract = {Ethiopia composes diversified topographic structures; undulated plateaus and mountains, raged valleys and plains. The highlands and ever-green portions of the county are fringed by the Sahara and Arabian deserts as well as East African arid climates. This study investigates the spatial and temporal seasonal (June-September [JJAS]) rainfall variability and the associated circulation patterns over Ethiopia. The study utilized ten daily station gridded rainfall, monthly SST, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind at various levels for 1983-2015. Statistical methods employed include EOF, composite and correlation analysis. The three leading EOF analysis revealed 57.8% that the first and second PC modes over Gambella are associated with ENSO and IOD variability. Wind and velocity potential revealed that wet (dry) years were characterized by convergence (divergence) in the lower level and divergence (convergence) at the upper level, implying rising (sinking) motion over the study area and western Indian Ocean. During normal (wet) years, maximum intensity of westerlies was generally observed at 850 hPa level, while easterlies were dominant at the upper level. There exists a significant correlation between JJAS rainfall and Nino3.4 for ENSO with r value (-0.56) but insignificant for (DMI) IOD with r value (-0.11). A cold (warm) summer SST over the central equatorial Pacific is associated with more (less) rainfall over Ethiopia. This shows that both ENSO and IOD modes have influence on rainfall variability during main rainy season. The findings of this and related studies is crucial to the development, planning and mitigation of all rainfall dependent activities.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Interannual Variability of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Circulations over Gambella, Ethiopia
    AU  - Waza Mulualem Abera
    AU  - Wang Wen
    Y1  - 2021/06/16
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20210903.13
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    JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
    JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
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    AB  - Ethiopia composes diversified topographic structures; undulated plateaus and mountains, raged valleys and plains. The highlands and ever-green portions of the county are fringed by the Sahara and Arabian deserts as well as East African arid climates. This study investigates the spatial and temporal seasonal (June-September [JJAS]) rainfall variability and the associated circulation patterns over Ethiopia. The study utilized ten daily station gridded rainfall, monthly SST, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind at various levels for 1983-2015. Statistical methods employed include EOF, composite and correlation analysis. The three leading EOF analysis revealed 57.8% that the first and second PC modes over Gambella are associated with ENSO and IOD variability. Wind and velocity potential revealed that wet (dry) years were characterized by convergence (divergence) in the lower level and divergence (convergence) at the upper level, implying rising (sinking) motion over the study area and western Indian Ocean. During normal (wet) years, maximum intensity of westerlies was generally observed at 850 hPa level, while easterlies were dominant at the upper level. There exists a significant correlation between JJAS rainfall and Nino3.4 for ENSO with r value (-0.56) but insignificant for (DMI) IOD with r value (-0.11). A cold (warm) summer SST over the central equatorial Pacific is associated with more (less) rainfall over Ethiopia. This shows that both ENSO and IOD modes have influence on rainfall variability during main rainy season. The findings of this and related studies is crucial to the development, planning and mitigation of all rainfall dependent activities.
    VL  - 9
    IS  - 3
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Author Information
  • National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Meteorological Data and Climatology Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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